France has worked behind the scenes during UN negotiations in New York in a bid to avoid a direct dangerous confrontation with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz despite mounting tensions with US President Donald Trump who wants Europeans to seize it by force, The National understands.
Whether this strategy has paid off will be seen on Saturday at an important UN Security Council vote on a Bahraini resolution calling for defensive measures in the strait. Iran allies Russia and China may yet use their veto if the language appears to militaristic.
This is an issue that France has tried to avoid by lobbying to remove some of the language first suggested by Bahrain, which holds the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council. "We transformed this text day after day to make it much closer to what we wanted," French diplomatic sources told The National.
A successful vote would likely allow France to claim it has played a vital role in upholding multilateralism at a time when it is imperilled by Mr Trump and avoided further bloodshed in the Middle East.
The initial drafts paved the way for an offensive military operation in the strait, including by referencing Chapter 7 of the UN charter, which allows military action to restore international peace and security. Paris also pushed to take out what it viewed as vague wording on the geographic delimitation of the operation and its timing.
After weeks of back and forth, the draft resolution circulating in New York on Friday made no reference to Chapter 7. It gave a six-month timeline for states to act "nationally or through voluntary multinational naval partnerships ... to use all defensive means necessary ... to secure transit passage and to deter attempts to close, obstruct or otherwise interfere with international navigation through the Strait of Hormuz".
Possible veto
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passageway crucial to the world economy, has been nearly entirely shut down by Iran since the US and Israel jointly launched a war in February, causing oil shortages and soaring prices across the globe.
Head of UN affairs at the International Crisis Group Daniel Forti told The National that Russia and China do not want to endorse a resolution that suggests an escalation in hostilities. "They are also pushing back against Bahrain’s selective framing of the war, which ignores Iran’s political interests and fails to condemn the US and Israel’s actions," he said.
The wording of resolutions is important for UN Security Council members. In 2011, Russia and China felt duped after abstaining during the vote on UN resolution 1973 that established a no-fly zone in Libya in the aftermath of the uprising against dictator Muammar Qaddafi. In their view, this meant shooting down Libyan planes, but in the eyes of Nato allies, it was translated as the more escalatory move of bombing Libyan air defences on the ground.
France's position has drawn the ire of Washington, with Mr Trump doubling down on personal attacks against his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron. Yet Mr Macron, who first floated the idea of a defensive naval operation in the strait on March 3 once hostilities were over, has succeeded in securing broad backing of at least 40 states.
Talks including European, Gulf, African and Asian states intensified this week and are set to continue in a few days with a video call between Gulf states and the Group of Seven countries, which includes the US. France currently presides over the G7.
Tension with Washington
Washington appears to have sided with Bahrain and other Gulf states in pushing for the inclusion of Chapter 7 in the draft resolution as frustration grows over Iranian attacks on their soil.
Mr Trump, who has appeared frustrated with France's refusal to be drawn into the conflict − a position widely shared in Europe – has increased personal attacks against Mr Macron by inferring marital issues with his wife in a reference to a widely publicised incident last year in which she appeared to be shoving her husband in the face.
“I called up France, Macron, whose wife treats him extremely badly, [he is] still recovering from the right to the jaw,” Mr Trump said earlier this week. He previously called on Europeans to "go get your own oil" from the strait.
Mr Macron, who is currently in South Korea, shot back by saying that the US was an unreliable ally not only to Nato but also to Gulf states – unlike France, which immediately sent Rafale jets to protect the UAE from Iranian attacks.
"There's too much talk and too much going in all directions; the world needs stability," Mr Macron said on Thursday. "We signed agreements with the Gulf countries and didn't comment on those agreements to say whether we'd be there or not. They were attacked, and we were present."
Even if Bahrain's resolution is not passed, its effort will not have been in vain, Mr Forti said. "Manama has laid the foundation for the Council to stay engaged on an issue of critical importance to both regional security and the global economy," he said. "As the war unfolds, the option of a multinational coalition backed by a Security Council mandate, combined with the UN’s initiative to restart commercial fertiliser trade, could be helpful features of a diplomatic off-ramp."
