Economists expect Middle East growth, despite turmoil and instability elsewhere

Survey reveals optimism for region and South Asia, in stark contrast to the outlook for US and Europe

US tariffs, global political turbulence and mounting trade union pressures across the Western world are driving uncertainty and stalling growth for the largest economies.

But according to the World Economic Forum's latest Chief Economists Survey, the Middle East and North Africa stand out among the strongest performers, with one third of economists expecting strong or very strong growth in 2025 in the region.

The optimism reflects a combination of resources-driven expansion and continuing efforts to diversity economies, from Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 reforms to the UAE's push to cement its role as a financial and innovation hub.

Despite continuing conflict in the region, the Gulf states have managed to stay steadfast as diplomatic, measured and calm economic hubs, attracting ever more investment and global talent.

South Asia also remains a bright spot, with nearly 70 per cent of respondents forecasting moderating growth and another 31 per cent expecting strong growth for the region.

India, in particular, continues to thrive, despite high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Again, economists put much of this success down to policy stability and growing domestic demand.

Likewise, China retains relatively strong growth expectations, although momentum is slowing as deflation risks and concerns about a fragile housing market persist.

By contrast, the US has emerged as one of the most downbeat regions in the survey. More than half of economists expect weak or very weak growth this year. The lack of confidence is probably driven by Trump's slew of fiscal and economic policy changes. Europe's outlook is somewhat better, but with 60 per cent forecasting moderate or strong growth, its recovery remains fragile.

Together, these results point to widening divergence in the global economy. With the Middle East and North Africa showing resilience despite turmoil and instability elsewhere.