At first glance, it could be an obscure postcard from history: a black-and-white photo shows Joe Biden with a slight smile in a striped suit, shaking hands with Anwar Sadat after the signing of the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in Washington.
A relative obscurity outside Washington, the 36-year-old member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was witness to a US achievement that became central to Jimmy Carter’s legacy. The photo circulated in US media when Mr Biden was running for president last year.
The next Arab-Israeli treaty was between Jordan and Israel, 15 years later.
Egypt and Jordan were the only Arab countries in formal peace with their former enemy until the regional normalisation drive with Israel last year.
Regional peace redux
This week Jordan and Egypt called for a united Arab effort to help the Biden administration relaunch Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, dormant for the past seven years.
Cairo and Amman both sent last month their top security officials to Ramallah, headquarters of the Palestinian Authority, which is dominated by President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah faction.
They wanted to gauge scenarios that may result from Palestinian elections scheduled to start in May, with the possibility of a Hamas win undermining chances to restart talks with Israel.
France and Germany support the moves by Jordan and Egypt.
The four countries comprise the so-called Munich group, formed after the Munich Security Conference a year ago, to push for reactivation of the peace process.
Jordan on edge
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Al Safadi said after a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on Tuesday that the Biden administration had sent “positive signs”.
He said Arab countries should respond with “a unified vision to relaunch serious and effective negotiations” based on the two-state solution.
"The whole region needs a breakthrough [in] the peace process, which faced near death in the last few years," Mr Al Safadi said.
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Jordan's King Abdullah II and US vice president Joe Biden attend a military demonstration at a Joint Training Center outside the city of Zarqa, northeast of the capital Amman, in 2016. AFP -
US Vice President Joseph Biden shakes hands with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas as they arrive for a meeting in the West Bank city of Ramallah in 2016. AFP -
US Vice President Joe Biden shakes hands with Morocco's King Mohammed VI at the royal palace in Fez in 2014. AFP -
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal welcomes US Vice President Joe Biden at the Riyadh airbase in 2011. AFP -
US Vice President Joe Biden reaches out to shake hands with Kuwait's prime minister Sheikh Nasser Al-Mohammed Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah in 2011. AFP -
US Vice President Joe Biden gestures during his meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in Baghdad in 2011. AFP -
US Vice President Joe Biden talka with Lebanese President Michel Sleiman at the presidential palace of Baabda east of Beirut in 2009. AFP -
US Vice President Joseph Biden shakes hand with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in 2009. AFP -
US Vice President Joe Biden meets with Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora at the governmental palace in Beirut in 2009. AFP
The demise of prospects for a two-state solution under President Donald Trump deepened fears among Jordanian officials that the kingdom could become what they term an alternative Palestinian homeland.
A large proportion of Jordan’s 10 million inhabitants are of Palestinian descent.
With its large Palestinian component, Jordan cannot accept being party to a deal that the Palestinians refuse.
This was previously the case in 1978 when Jordan declined to participate in the Camp David accords, the precursor of the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian treaty.
Four decades later, the kingdom sought to stay away from Mr Trump’s "deal of the century", the nickname for his Middle East peace plan.
Fatah and Hamas mocked Mr Trump’s plan as ignoring the Israeli occupation and what they regard as a Palestinian right to the whole of the West Bank and the Old City in East Jerusalem.
Jordan regarded Mr Trump’s vision as supporting Israeli ambitions to annex Palestinian territory, potentially causing another Palestinian exodus, or linking West Bank areas with Jordan – in both cases a threat to its demographic balance.
The Munich group said after one if its regular meetings last year that any annexation of Palestinian territory is against international law and could “have consequences” for ties between the four countries and Israel.
With a small economy, 11 per cent the size of Israel's and being a recipient of $1.5 billion in US aid a year, Jordanian options were limited.
The departure of Mr Trump has revived the country’s role as an interlocutor, and its reputation as a key player is expected to be taken more seriously in Washington.
But Jordanian officials were cautious about showing elation in response to the election of Mr Biden in November.
International studies professor Hassan Al Momani said that although the Biden administration “has returned to the two-state narrative”, the new president “may not want to step beyond management of the conflict”
He said Jordan and Egypt want to streamline Arab priorities after the normalisation accords, and adapt them to the new administration in Washington.
“They want to create a starting point to help Biden re-engage on the peace process,” Mr Al Momani said, and that “putting the Palestinian house in order” is central to their strategy.
Egypt's Gaza dilemma
As the Trump peace plan crystalised in his last two years in office, US relations with Jordan soured, while ties between Washington and Cairo were unaffected.
Egypt, by virtue of its size and border with Gaza, regards itself as the gateway for any Palestinian-Israeli peace.
But Mr Al Momani, who teaches at Jordan University, said the nature of any future Palestinian state “is worrisome for everyone”.
"A Palestinian state can be attractive and lessen the demographic pressure on Jordan," Mr Al Momani told The National.
“But can the Palestinians produce a stable state that does not turn into another Gaza?”
For years Egyptian authorities worried about the population explosion in Gaza and rise of Hamas, and other militant groups in the strip. Hamas is supported by Iran and Qatar.
But Cairo kept open channels with Hamas, despite the group’s links to the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.
Unlike the Brotherhood, no Arab country has labelled Hamas a terrorist organisation, yet the US and the EU list Hamas as a terrorist group.
Under Egyptian auspices, Hamas and Fatah agreed in Cairo on Tuesday on guidelines for forthcoming Palestinian elections.
The last Palestinian elections, won by Hamas 15 years ago, led to civil war after power-sharing arrangements with Fatah failed.
The war left Hamas in control of Gaza and Fatah dominating Palestinian self-rule in parts of the West Bank.
The new poll, if it takes place, would raise the credibility of the Palestinian side in any negotiations. It could boost Egypt’s position as a diplomatic player with sway across a broad spectrum of Palestinian politics.
But the election deal struck in Cairo remains vague and the Egyptian intervention carries political and foreign policy risks.
Hamas could win the poll, similar to the last one, an outcome that Egypt and Jordan do not want.
Palestinian unity?
Veteran political commentator Abdulwahab Badrakhan said Egypt should have concentrated on unifying the administration of the West Bank and Gaza, instead of elections.
He said elections in two statelets ruled by rival groups was bound to produce "a deformed outcome".
“The existing divisions and the situation on the ground open the possibility for the elections to lead to prolonged civil strife,” Mr Badrakhan said from London.
He said elections would be more convincing to the US and other powers if Egypt was able to prod Hamas and Fatah to form a single Palestinian authority.
“As much as the elections are necessary, they will not produce stability or an authority that can deal with the international community in pursuit of a solution,” he said.
Hamas is ultimately not against negotiations with Israel.
But the group has consistently warned against retreating from Palestinian demands, a position central to retaining its constituency, as well as support from Tehran.
A regional veteran
Since he became president, Mr Biden has been wearing solid colour suits. He knows many of the region’s movers and shakers personally. Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt called him a friend.
The US new secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said Mr Biden “strongly supports” the two-state solution.
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Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, welcomes then US Vice President Joe Biden at Zabeel Palace in March 2016. AP Photo -
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, meets US Vice President Joe Biden in Dubai in 2016. Reuters -
US Vice President Joe Biden meets with Kurdish regional president Massoud Barzani in Arbil on September 17, 2009. Biden held talks in the Kurdish regional capital of Arbil to push Iraqi leaders for progress on stalled legislation ahead of parliamentary elections in January. AFP -
Delaware Senator Joe Biden speaking with an unidentified soldier inside a Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle during a visit to Ramadi, Iraq, 06 September, 2007. AFP -
US Vice President Joseph Biden and his wife Dr Jill Biden tour the Nabatean city of Petra in southern Jordan on March 12, 2010. AFP -
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal welcomes US Vice President Joe Biden at the Riyadh airbase on October 27, 2011, upon his arrival in the Saudi capital with a US official delegation to offer condolences to the King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz following the death of his brother, Crown Prince Sultan. AFP -
Israel's President Shimon Peres shakes hands with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden before their meeting at the president's residence in Jerusalem March 9, 2010. Reuters -
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden talks with soldiers at Camp Victory on the outskirts of Baghdad, Iraq July 4, 2009. Reuters -
U.S. Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden talks with soldiers as he travels in a military vehicle to Iraq from Kuwait in this September 6, 2007. Reuters -
U.S. Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., Chairman of the U.S Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, waves as he talks to Afghan children during a visit to the Ariana primary school in Kabul, Jan. 12, 2002. AP Photo -
US Vice President Joseph Biden shakes hand with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki during a joined press conference following a meeting in Baghdad on July 3, 2009. Vice President Joe Biden threatened today that the United States would politically disengage from Iraq if sectarian or ethnic violence resumes, a senior US official told reporters. AFP -
US Sen. Joe Lieberman speaks to Jill, the wife of Vice President Joe Biden as Sen. Lindsay Graham and U.S. Sen. John McCain looks on, during a surprise visit to Baghdad, on July 3, 2010. AFP -
Turkish President Abdullah Gul meets with US congressmen Joseph Biden, John Kerry, Chuck Hagel, and US Ambassador to Turkey Ross Wilson in Ankara, on February 22, 2008. AFP -
US senator Joseph Biden is greeted by Iraq's interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi while visiting Baghdad 19 June 2004. Eighteen Iraqis were killed and eight wounded in the Sunni rebel stronghold of Fallujah, hospital officials said, in an attack which local residents blamed on a US air raid. AFP -
US Senator Joseph Biden hosts King Abdullah II of Jordan and Queen Rania at a Senate Foreign Relations luncheon 08 May 2002, during their visit to the US Capitol in Washington, DC. AFP -
US vice president-elect Joe Biden is seen during a meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in Baghdad on January 12, 2009. AFP -
Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari smiles at Joe Biden during a press conference after a meeting with and Curt Weldon, the head of a US congressional delegation of about a half-dozen members that also includes Rep. Joe Wilson, Rep. Jeff Miller, Rep. Harold Ford, Rep. Mark Green, David Reichert, and Senator Joe Biden, in Baghdad 30 May 2005. AFP -
US Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska listen on as Joe Biden of Delaware speaks to the press at a hotel in Baghdad 23 June 2003. The congressional delegation is touring the capital and attending official meetings. AFP -
Delaware Senator Joe Biden meeting with Iraqi tribal leaders in the Anbar Province in Iraq, 06 September, 2007. AFP -
The wife of US vice president, Jill Biden meets Syrian refugee children on March 10, 2016 at the Zaatari refugee camp, located close to the northern Jordanian city of Mafraq near the border with Syria. AFP -
US Vice President Joe Biden arrives for a meeting with Morocco's King Mohammed VI at the royal palace in Fez on November 19, 2014. AFP -
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit receives US Vice President Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden upon their arrival at Sharm el-Sheikh Airport on June 6, 2010, for a meeting with President Hosni Mubarak on the first leg of an African tour. AFP -
US Vice President Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden are welcomed by Reem Al Hashimi, Minister of State and Managing Director for the Dubai World Expo 2020 Bid Committee. EPA -
US vice president Joe Biden speaks during a conference with young Emirati entrepreneurs in Dubai. AP Photo -
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri attends a meeting with Sen. Joe Biden, (D-DE), and other members of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee 17 April 2002 at the US Capitol in Washington, DC. AFP -
US Vice President Joe Biden shakes hands with Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora during a meeting at the governmental palace in Beirut on May 22, 2009. AFP -
US Vice President Joe Biden and Lebanese Defence Minister Elias Murr walk past a US-made tank during a ceremony at the Rafiq Hariri international airport in Beirut on May 22, 2009. AFP
Mr Blinken told CNN that it was “the only way to ensure Israel’s future as a Jewish and democratic state, and the only way to give the Palestinians a state to which they’re entitled”.
But Mr Blinken sidestepped a question about whether the US supports creation of a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem, saying “it is the objective” of direct talks.
“We’re unfortunately away from that at this point in time,” he said.
In Carter's footsteps?
By the time Sadat and Menachem Begin signed the 1979 accord at the White House, it was largely forgotten that the three countries had committed to solve the Palestinian problem.
The 1978 Camp David Accords said Egypt, Israel, Jordan “and the representatives of the Palestinian people should participate in negotiations on the resolution of the Palestinian problem in all its aspects”.
The Palestinian Liberation Organisation rejected Camp David, seeing the accords as a sell-out by Sadat. Jordan reluctantly took a similar position and joined a decade-long Arab boycott of Egypt.
Before he hosted Sadat and Begin at Camp David, Mr Carter asked for an assessment from senior officials of what to expect.
His stalwart National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote to him saying that “Begin probably believes that a failure at Camp David will hurt you and Sadat, but not him".
In the end Camp David was a win-win for the three countries. Thirteen years later the US revived the treaty’s clauses regarding the Palestinian problem by convening the Madrid Peace Conference, after the Gulf War.
The problem for Mr Biden is that unlike Mr Carter, he has to contend with a far more powerful Iran, which is willing to play the role of spoiler in a more durable peace process. Today, Tehran has a host of proxy militant groups and an array of weapons programmes, including potential nuclear devices.
In that regard, if Mr Biden wants to start a new journey for regional peace he will have to contend with Tehran as an unwelcome distraction.
