When a junior royal and a former head of the royal court were arrested on Saturday – in addition to other unnamed figures – the international reaction was swift.
By midnight local time, foreign ministers across the world had put out urgent communiqués standing behind Jordan's King Abdullah, the government and the people of the country.
The swift and unanimous response is indicative of the important role that Jordan plays in the Middle East and the world as well as the importance that international capitals place on avoiding a political earthquake in the Hashemite Kingdom.
Former adviser to the king Bassem Awadallah and royal Sharif Hassan Ben Zaid were both detained on Saturday on security grounds, officials said.
The military said that Prince Hamza – who was removed as crown prince in 2004 – was not under house arrest after reports he had been detained. However, Prince Hamza leaked a video overnight on Saturday saying that he was being barred from leaving his home.
The authorities did say they warned the prince, King Abdullah’s half-brother, to stop activities they said undermined the country’s security. They gave no details.
Jordan’s importance at the heart of the Middle East
"The quick way regional and international powers reacted suggests how important Jordan's stability is," Hassan Al Momani, an International studies professor who teaches at Jordan University, told The National.
On Saturday night, State Department spokesman Ned Price said American officials were “in touch” with Jordanian officials and that King Abdullah “is a key partner of the United States, and he has our full support."
The US and Jordan have long been military allies and as well as hosting American forces and logistics bases for the American-led invasion of neighbouring Iraq the two countries share intelligence and military co-operation.
The authorities signed a security pact with the United States this year and the government is one the biggest recipients of American aid. An estimated 3,000 US troops are based in the country.
Jordan is a member of the US-led coalition to defeat ISIS and King Abdullah has even flown on combat missions over Syria targeting the extremist group after they killed Jordanian pilot Muath Al Kasasbeh and broadcast the videos in 2015.
Mr Al Momani said that over the last several decades Jordan, “has forged a strategic alliance with the West and managed to create and consolidate multiple-roles in counter-terrorism, peacemaking, hosting refugees and international humanitarian organisations.”
This, he said, places Jordan as one of the central blocks in an interconnected Middle East.
“This is a regional system. If something happens to one unit it could impact other units,” he said.
This was highlighted on Sunday by the UAE that said that “the security and stability of Jordan is an integral part of its own security.”
Jordan also hosts over 700,000 Syrian refugees who have fled the neighbouring conflict.
Amman has also long played a central role in the Arab-Israeli conflict and a large proportion of Jordan’s population are of Palestinian origin.
The country of 10 million, ruled by the Hashemite monarchy since independence from Britain in 1946, was one of the first Arab nations to sign a peace deal with Israel.
And the Hashemite family is also the custodian of Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa compound – the third holiest site in Islam – and has been a key interlocutor in peace talks.
Geographically, Jordan for years was a key overland trade link between the Gulf in the south, the Levant in the north-west, Iraq in the east and Israel and Palestine in the West.
Tough times in Amman
Mr Al Momani said that given the country’s delicate tribal balances, the arrests indicated “something uneasy is happening in Jordan”.
Tribes and clans dominate the security forces and form the bedrock of support for the king.
Historically, the king has been a hands-on commander of the military and the final arbiter of domestic disputes, while building external alliances and dictating foreign policy.
Since King Abdullah took to the throne in 1999, he has employed his stature on the world stage to try to attract international investment.
But the economy is in recession after a decade of stagnation.
Poverty is deep and unemployment is officially at a record high of 24 per cent.
Growth contracted by 3 per cent in 2020, hit by lockdowns during the pandemic, but the government and the International Monetary Fund both predict a bounce of similar magnitude this year.
“The economic cost of the pandemic is huge,” Finance Minister Mohamad Al Ississ said in January.
Criticism has been rising, including from the king, of the government’s handling of the coronavirus.
Covid controversy
The authorities last month cracked down on small demonstrations that erupted across the country after a number of Covid patients died at a hospital in central Jordan.
Intensive care wards at a hospital in Al Salt run out of oxygen for nearly two hours, killing 7 people.
What the king said negligence resulted in the deaths and ordered action to be taken.
But people demonstrated, pointing to the poor state of many government services in the country.
After early successes in containing the virus last year, cases rose and lockdowns that hammered the economy and cut off vital tourists were mandated.
Support for the king
Despite the grumblings of dissatisfaction at the state of things in Jordan, King Abdullah retains popularity among the people.
In a show of support, parliament, which has limited powers, on Sunday convened for a regular session that was turned over to speaker after speaker who backed King Abdullah and extolled his major achievements.
Jordan's Senate Speaker Faisal Al Fayez told the upper chamber that Jordan would remain "steadfast" and a "bulwark" against what he called "malicious conspiracies" that aimed to destabilise the country and cause divisions.
"Jordan and the king are a red line," he said.
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Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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