Israel was gripped once more by political deadlock on Wednesday as the latest election results showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc falling short of a majority, raising the prospect of weeks of uncertainty and a possible fifth contest.
Although exit polls put Mr Netanyahu and his allies within reach of a 61-seat parliamentary majority on Tuesday night, the fortunes of Israel’s longest-serving leader waned as the ballots were counted.
With most votes counted, the prime minister's Likud is set to emerge as the largest party with 30 seats. But even with the support of various right-wing and religious alliances, he currently stands two seats short of a governing coalition.
“The outcome is a very, very close call,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute.
“It’s proved yet again that Israelis are split right down the middle when it comes to the question which defines Israeli politics today: for or against the continuation of the premiership of Benjamin Netanyahu,” he said.
Anti-Netanyahu legislators failed to unite around one candidate, and represent a plethora of political views. The bloc includes the leftist parties Labor and Meretz, the centrist Blue and White alliance, the Arab-led Joint List, and New Hope, which was founded by Likud defector Gideon Sa’ar.
The closest challenger to Mr Netanyahu is Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid party, which picked up 18 seats according to the latest results.
“Two years of paralysis and very little effect on actual voting patterns,” said Mr Plesner, as Israelis face their fourth inconclusive election result since April 2019.
Mr Netanyahu had anticipated a spike in the polls owing to the country’s speedy vaccination drive, with the government broadly reopening the economy earlier this month as the coronavirus infection rate dropped.
"I think Israel serves as a model for the world," the prime minister said earlier this month.
More than 55 per cent of Israelis have received their first dose, though the government has faced criticism from rights groups for providing vaccines for only about two per cent of the Palestinian population in Gaza and the West Bank.
Having failed to win over enough voters to give him and his allies a coalition, Mr Netanyahu must now convince other legislators to back him for the leadership.
An unlikely kingmaker has emerged in Mansour Abbas, whose Ra’am party made a dramatic comeback to pick up five seats after exit polls forecast it would fail to make it into parliament.
Ra'am split with the Joint List, which looks likely to win six seats, after Mr Abbas controversially suggested he was open to working with Mr Netanyahu to get Arab affairs on the government agenda.
The conservative politician could now give his backing to either the pro- or anti-Netanyahu bloc, though Arab parties have never served in government.
“Likud is very divided within itself about whether they want to work with him in building a coalition or supporting a coalition from the outside,” said Dahlia Scheindlin, a pollster and political analyst.
Another key player who has yet to publicly pick sides is Naftali Bennett, leader of the right-wing Yamina party, which is on track to win seven seats.
“So far Bennett can’t help Netanyahu, because even with him he only has 59,” Dr Scheindlin said.
“He could defect to the other side, to the non-Netanyahu parties, but I have a hard time seeing how they would get to 61,” she added, because the chance of Mr Bennett working with the Joint List remains remote.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara cast their ballots at a polling station in Jerusalem. EPA -
Chairman of Israel's New Hope party Gideon Saar and his wife Geula vote with their children at a polling station in the coastal city of Tel Avivi. EPA -
Officials instruct a man as he votes from a car at a special mobile polling station for Israelis in quarantine or infected with Covid-19. Israelis were voting on Tuesday, March 23 in the country's fourth general election in less than two years. Reuters -
Covid-19 patient Rahamim Havura votes in Israel's parliamentary election inside an intensive care ward for coronavirus patients at Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv. AP -
Israeli centrist former television anchor Yair Lapid, the prime minister's main challenger, and his wife Lihi cast their votes at a polling station in Tel Aviv. AFP -
Naftali Bennett, leader of the right wing 'New Right' Yamina party, waves as he walks with his wife Gilat at a polling station where they voted in the city of Raanana. AFP -
Ayman Odeh, leader of Israel's predominantly Arab Joint List and the Hadash party, casts his ballot in Haifa. AFP -
An Israeli Arab woman casts her ballot in the Bedouin town of Rahat. AFP -
A man prepares to cast his ballot at a special mobile polling station near a beach in Ashdod. Reuters -
A voter wearing casts his ballot inside a special temporary polling station tent, set up for people quarantined for potential exposure to coronavirus, in Tel Aviv. Bloomberg -
An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man arrives to vote in Israel's parliamentary election, at a polling station in Bnei Brak. AP -
A mobile voting booth is seen at a special polling station for Israelis in quarantine or infected with the coronavirus disease. Reuters -
A man votes with his children in Tel Aviv on the fourth national election in two years. AFP -
Sara Netanyahu, wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, prays at the Western Wall, ahead of national elections in the Old City of Jerusalem. AP -
A boy looks up at a Blue and White party election campaign banner depicting its leader, Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in Bnei Brak. Reuters -
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greets supporters as he tours the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem. AFP -
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu eats dessert from a stall as he tours the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem. AFP -
Gideon Saar, head of Israel's New Hope party, works at the party's headquarters in the Israeli coastal city of Tel Aviv. AFP
With no clear path to victory for either bloc, over the coming days politicians will be trying to woo potential defectors to help their side gain a majority.
After the final results are presented next week to President Reuven Rivlin, he will consult with party chiefs before choosing a leader to form a government. Negotiations could take weeks and if no politician is able to build a coalition, Israelis will vote for a fifth time later this year.
Voting in Jerusalem on Tuesday, Mr Rivlin said the deadlock has taken its toll.
“Four elections in two years erode public trust in the democratic process,” he said, even as he urged Israelis to vote again. “There is no other way.”
While Mr Netanyahu has tough talks ahead of him, the president of the Israel Democracy Institute said there is still some likelihood he will reach 61 seats.
Such a coalition would include Religious Zionism, a far-right alliance that exceeded expectations and is set to clinch six seats. Led by Bezalel Smotrich, their ticket includes lawyer Itamar Ben-Gvir who is widely seen as a disciple of the late racist ultranationalist Meir Kahane.
“Many of them had no voice in parliament, rather only in street protests, and they represent some of the most radical if not extreme and intolerant voices in Israeli society,” Mr Plesner said.
If such a government emerges, he suggested it would be marked by unconventional policymaking which would affect the judiciary and law enforcement.
“It would be a rollercoaster or, some would say, a ‘fasten your seat belts’ scenario,” he said.
