Pope Francis’s trip to former ISIS stronghold of Mosul shows group's decline

Analysts are surprised that ISIS was unable to conduct a single attack during the papal visit to Iraq

Pope Francis speaks near the ruins of Al Tahera Church in Mosul’s Old City on March 7. AFP

For many people, Iraq has become a byword for danger and instability. For this reason, Pope Francis's predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, said the pontiff's Iraq trip was "important but dangerous".

The Pope's incredible, 4,500-kilometre trip across Iraq, passing through five provinces and several cities, was no doubt a challenge for his security team.

The memory of the May 13, 1981 assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II would have been fresh in the minds of Pope Francis’s personal security detail.

For the Iraqis, the memory of UN Special Representative Sergio Vieira de Mello's death in 2003 would also have been a haunting one. To date, de Mello is the highest profile victim of terrorism in Iraq.

Mosul operations

Although the security guards can take pride in a job well done, the failure of ISIS to launch even a symbolic attack points to the group’s astonishing decline.

As recently as January, Iraq’s security forces were coming under attack in the countryside west of Mosul. But compared with past incidents, current ISIS activity is sporadic and attacks are usually small.

This allowed the Iraqi security forces to cordon off Church Square in Mosul, where the Pope delivered his historic call for peace.

Pope Francis gestures as he boards a plane to depart for Rome, at Baghdad International Airport in Baghdad. Reuters

Cardinals and ranking Catholic clergymen board the Alitalia Airbus A330 aircraft as Pope Francis bids farewell to other bishops and Iraq's President Barham Saleh and his wife Sarbagh before departing from the Iraqi capital's Baghdad International. AFP

Iraq's President Barham Saleh and his wife Sarbagh escort Pope Francis during the farewell ceremony for the pontiff at the Iraqi capital's Baghdad International Airport. AFP

Pope Francis meets Abdullah Kurdi, father of little Alan, who was shipwrecked with his brother and mother on the Turkish coast in September 2015 while he was trying to reach Europe with his family, at the end of a Mass in the Erbil Stadium. EPA

Nuns cheer and dance at the Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil, Iraq. Getty Images

A baby dressed in papal outfit during a mass with Pope Francis at the Erbil Stadium. EPA

Nuns take a selfie after the completion of a mass conducted by Pope Francis. Getty Images

People carry umbrellas as they celebrate after a mass led by Pope Francis at the Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil, Iraq. Reuters

Pope Francis conducts mass at the Franso Hariri Stadium. Getty Images

Monks pray during a mass conducted by Pope Francis at the Franso Hariri Stadium. Getty Images

Pope Francis blesses a statue of the Virgin Mary at a mass at the Franso Hariri Stadium. EPA

Pope Francis walks with an incense censer as he leads mass at the Franso Hariri Stadium. AFP

Pope Francis blesses people as he arrives in the popemobile vehicle at the Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil. AFP

Pope Francis arrives on the popemobile to celebrate Mass at the Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil. AP Photo

Nuns wave flags of Iraq, Kurdistan, and the Holy See as they wait for the arrival of Pope Francis at the Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil. AFP

A faithful waits for Pope Francis to hold Mass at Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil. Reuters

Pope Francis blessing people as he arrives in the popemobile vehicle at the Franso Hariri Stadium. AFP

Young women dressed in traditional Kurdish clothing wave flags of the Holy See as they wait for the arrival of Pope Francis at the Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil. AFP

Pope Francis arrives to hold a mass at the Grand Immaculate Church, in Qaraqosh. Reuters

Pope Francis is greeted by people as he arrives at the Syriac Catholic Church of the Immaculate Conception (al-Tahira-l-Kubra), in the predominantly Christian town of Qaraqosh. AFP

Pope Francis arrives at a meeting with local residents at the Church of the Immaculate Conception in Qaraqosh. AP Photo

Pope Francis visits the town before holding a mass at the Grand Immaculate Church, in Qaraqosh. Reuters

Pope Francis releases a white dove during a prayer for war victims at 'Hosh al-Bieaa', Church Square, in Mosul's Old City. Reuters

Pope Francis rides in a golf cart at the ruins of the Syriac Catholic Church of the Immaculate Conception. AFP

A nun kisses the hand of Pope Francis during a prayer for war victims at 'Hosh al-Bieaa', Church Square, in Mosul's Old City. Reuters

Pope Francis arrives to pray for war victims at 'Hosh al-Bieaa', Church Square, in Mosul's old city. Reuters

Pope Francis attends a prayer for the victims of the war at Church Square, Mosul. EPA

Pope Francis and the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Masud Barzani viewing a gift sculpture of a Chaldean cross during their meeting in Arbil, the capital of Iraq's northern autonomous Kurdish region. AFP

Pope Francis meeting with the President of the autonomous Kurdistan Region Nechirvan Barzani, the Prime Minister of the 9th cabinet of the Kurdistan Regional Government Mansour Barzani, and the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Masud Barzani in Arbil. AFP

Pope Francis greets Iraqis dressed in traditional outfits upon his arrival at Erbil airport, in the capital of the northern Iraqi Kurdish autonomous region. AFP

Pope Francis walks with Masrour Barzani, Prime Minister of Kurdistan region, and President of the Kurdistan region in Iraq Nechirvan Barzani, upon his arrival at Erbil International Airport. Reuters

Iraqi women dressed in traditional outfits hold palm leafs as they welcome Pope Francis upon his arrival at Erbil airport. AFP

Mansour Barzani, Prime Minister of the 9th cabinet of the Kurdistan Regional Government looks on , as Pope Francis greets religious dignitaries at the Erbil airport. AFP

Pope Francis arrives at Erbil International Airport in Iraq. Reuters

Pope Francis is welcomed at Erbil International Airport in Erbil. Reuters

Pope Francis greets people as he leave the Chaldean Cathedral of Saint Joseph. Getty Images

Pope Francis leads mass at Baghdad's Saint Joseph Cathedral. AFP

Iraqi Christian worshippers attend the mass led by the Pope at Baghdad's Saint Joseph Cathedral. AFP

Pope Francis greeted by children upon his arrival for a mass at Baghdad's Saint Joseph Cathedral. AFP

Pope Francis blesses the congregation as he leads mass at Baghdad's Saint Joseph Cathedral. AFP

Pope Francis arrives to lead mass at Baghdad's Saint Joseph Cathedral. AFP

Pope Francis is greeted by children upon his arrival at Baghdad's Saint Joseph Cathedral. AFP

People take pictures with their mobiles upon the arrival of Pope Francis. Reuters

Pope Francis speaks to Iraqi religious figures during an interfaith service at the House of Abraham in the ancient city of Ur in Iraq's southern Dhi Qar province. EPA

Pope Francis speaks to Iraqi religious figures during an interfaith service at the House of Abraham in the ancient city of Ur. EPA

Pope Francis speaks to Iraqi religious figures during an interfaith service at the House of Abraham in the ancient city of Ur. EPA

Pope Francis is seen behind flowers at an interfaith service at the House of Abraham in the ancient city of Ur. EPA

Pope Francis smiles and waves at a women that threw a kiss to him. Haider Husseini/ The National

People attend an inter-religious ceremony in Ur near Nassiriya. Reuters

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani meeting with Pope Francis and his delegation, at his home in the holy city of Najaf. AFP

Pope Francis, accompanied by clerics, and Iraq's top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani, meet in Najaf. Courtesy of the Vatican

Pope Francis's meeting with Iraq's top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani, in Najaf, followed months of negotiations between Najaf and the Vatican. Reuters

Pope Francis smiles with Iraq's prime minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi on arrival at Baghdad airport. Handout from the office of the Prime Minister of Iraq

The Pope visits Our Lady of Salvation Church. Courtesy of the Prime Minister office

Pope Francis is welcomed upon his arrival at the Our Lady of Salvation Church. AP Photo

Pope Francis speaks in the Our Lady of Salvation Church. AFP

Pope Francis greets people in front of the the Our Lady of Salvation Church. AFP

Nuns welcome Pope Francis at the Our Lady of Salvation Church. AFP

Iraq's President Barham Salih speaks with Pope Francis during a welcoming ceremony at the Presidental Palace in Baghdad. Reuters

Iraqi President Barham Salih welcomes Pope Francis at the Presidential Palace. AFP

Pope Francis walk with Iraq's prime minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi on arrival at Baghdad airport. Handout from the office of the Prime Minister of Iraq

Pope Francis talks with Iraq's prime minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi on arrival in Baghdad. Handout from the office of the Prime Minister of Iraq

Pope Francis walks with Iraq's prime minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi on arrival at Baghdad airport. Handout from the office of the Prime Minister of Iraq

Pope Francis walks alongside Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi upon his arrival in Baghdad. AFP

Pope Francis waves to the crowd upon his arrival in Baghdad. Reuters

Pope Francis speaks to journalists aboard the plane heading to Iraq. AP Photo

Pope Francis waves as he boards the plane for his visit to Iraq, at Leonardo da Vinci-Fiumicino Airport in Rome, Italy. Reuters

People holding Iraqi and Vatican flags as they wait for the arrival of Pope Francis, at Baghdad Airport Road, in Baghdad, Iraq. Reuters

A Christian woman holds the Vatican flag as she heads to the airport to wait for the arrival of Pope Francis, in Baghdad, Iraq. Reuters

The absence of even a symbolic attack during the papal visit does not signal some newfound respect for the Pope among the ranks of ISIS.

As far back as 2015, ISIS propaganda magazine Dabiq showed an image of Vatican City's St Peter's Square on its cover, with the terrorist group's black flag flying aloft.

ISIS had almost four months to plan something, following the Vatican’s announcement of the visit in December last year.

In the past, this would have been more than enough time.

During the rise of the group in Iraq in late 2013, the Institute for the Study of War reported that the forerunner of ISIS was conducting synchronised attacks across Iraq on a monthly basis. At times it detonated more than 10 car bombs in different cities at the same time.

ISIS in decline?

“I was a bit surprised they didn’t do anything but, then again, they’ve done little since November, so it fit into the pattern,” said Joel Wing, an analyst in the US who has been tracking violence levels in Iraq since 2008.

“It might be a lull before their annual spring offensive. It might be because they’re regrouping after their recent leadership losses.”

“Either way this is the fewest attacks since 2003,” he says, referring to overall terrorist violence.

Alex Almeida, an analyst with Horizon Client Access, agrees that the group has been in long-term decline.

“I was a bit worried they would pull off a symbolic, low-capability attack like a bomb in a trashcan or backpack bombing outside the stadium in Erbil, or a lone gunman shooting up a crowd or hotel,” he said.

Mr Almeida said ISIS in its current form is struggling to co-ordinate nationally, as it did successfully in the past.

"They really are struggling to keep up even a low-level pattern of attacks right now. It increasingly feels like ISIS in Iraq is disaggregating into a bunch of separate local micro-insurgencies, remaining cells in north Diyala and rural Kirkuk," he said.

“The underlying drumbeat of attacks that provided a sort of background ‘critical mass’ to the insurgency feels like it’s mostly gone.”

An Iraqi army soldier stands patrol outside the Immaculate Conception Church during preparations for Pope Francis' trip to Iraq in Qaraqosh. AP Photo

In other words, ISIS has not only lost men and resources, but has also lost almost all of its support among Sunni communities in Iraq. That base of support is the essence of what an insurgency is, an armed movement depending on a degree of local co-operation.

The Iraqi security forces now have  a celebrated counter-intelligence branch known as the Falcons and an elite, US-trained force known as the Counter Terrorism Service. Thousands of other soldiers and police were also able to control public movement in areas the Pope visited.

But hundreds of thousands of Iraqi soldiers on regular operations could not stop ISIS attacks in the past.

"The preparations on the ground and from the sky made it very difficult for anyone to launch attacks, big or small, or even infiltrate the areas the Pope visited," a Ministry of Interior security source, who wished to remain anonymous, told The National.

"There were many security cordons on the ground in addition to the full lockdown that helped us restrict individuals' movement, and there were drones and helicopters hovering overhead in all areas," he said.

“To carry out any attack, there should be a group of about five or more to offer logistical support or cover, who can move freely. So anyone, whether ISIS or militias, realised that conditions weren’t perfect.”

The security source said he was surprised the group was silent on the papal visit.

“To be honest, we don’t know why ISIS didn’t issue a statement, but what I can say is that ISIS today is not the one we saw more than six years ago,” he says.

“Not only has their military capability been heavily degraded, but also their presence on social media and their ability to share materials, whether visual or text.”

But the security officer said that this was no reason for Iraqi forces to drop their guard.

“Maybe we can see something on that in the near future,” he said.