Pope Francis’s trip to former ISIS stronghold of Mosul shows group's decline

For many people, Iraq has become a byword for danger and instability. For this reason, Pope Francis's predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, said the pontiff's Iraq trip was "important but dangerous".

The Pope's incredible, 4,500-kilometre trip across Iraq, passing through five provinces and several cities, was no doubt a challenge for his security team.

The memory of the May 13, 1981 assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II would have been fresh in the minds of Pope Francis’s personal security detail.

For the Iraqis, the memory of UN Special Representative Sergio Vieira de Mello's death in 2003 would also have been a haunting one. To date, de Mello is the highest profile victim of terrorism in Iraq.

Mosul operations

Although the security guards can take pride in a job well done, the failure of ISIS to launch even a symbolic attack points to the group’s astonishing decline.

As recently as January, Iraq’s security forces were coming under attack in the countryside west of Mosul. But compared with past incidents, current ISIS activity is sporadic and attacks are usually small.

This allowed the Iraqi security forces to cordon off Church Square in Mosul, where the Pope delivered his historic call for peace.

The absence of even a symbolic attack during the papal visit does not signal some newfound respect for the Pope among the ranks of ISIS.

As far back as 2015, ISIS propaganda magazine Dabiq showed an image of Vatican City's St Peter's Square on its cover, with the terrorist group's black flag flying aloft.

ISIS had almost four months to plan something, following the Vatican’s announcement of the visit in December last year.

In the past, this would have been more than enough time.

During the rise of the group in Iraq in late 2013, the Institute for the Study of War reported that the forerunner of ISIS was conducting synchronised attacks across Iraq on a monthly basis. At times it detonated more than 10 car bombs in different cities at the same time.

ISIS in decline?

“I was a bit surprised they didn’t do anything but, then again, they’ve done little since November, so it fit into the pattern,” said Joel Wing, an analyst in the US who has been tracking violence levels in Iraq since 2008.

“It might be a lull before their annual spring offensive. It might be because they’re regrouping after their recent leadership losses.”

“Either way this is the fewest attacks since 2003,” he says, referring to overall terrorist violence.

Alex Almeida, an analyst with Horizon Client Access, agrees that the group has been in long-term decline.

“I was a bit worried they would pull off a symbolic, low-capability attack like a bomb in a trashcan or backpack bombing outside the stadium in Erbil, or a lone gunman shooting up a crowd or hotel,” he said.

Mr Almeida said ISIS in its current form is struggling to co-ordinate nationally, as it did successfully in the past.

"They really are struggling to keep up even a low-level pattern of attacks right now. It increasingly feels like ISIS in Iraq is disaggregating into a bunch of separate local micro-insurgencies, remaining cells in north Diyala and rural Kirkuk," he said.

“The underlying drumbeat of attacks that provided a sort of background ‘critical mass’ to the insurgency feels like it’s mostly gone.”

An Iraqi army soldier stands patrol outside the Immaculate Conception Church during preparations for Pope Francis' trip to Iraq in Qaraqosh. AP Photo

In other words, ISIS has not only lost men and resources, but has also lost almost all of its support among Sunni communities in Iraq. That base of support is the essence of what an insurgency is, an armed movement depending on a degree of local co-operation.

The Iraqi security forces now have a celebrated counter-intelligence branch known as the Falcons and an elite, US-trained force known as the Counter Terrorism Service. Thousands of other soldiers and police were also able to control public movement in areas the Pope visited.

But hundreds of thousands of Iraqi soldiers on regular operations could not stop ISIS attacks in the past.

"The preparations on the ground and from the sky made it very difficult for anyone to launch attacks, big or small, or even infiltrate the areas the Pope visited," a Ministry of Interior security source, who wished to remain anonymous, told The National.

"There were many security cordons on the ground in addition to the full lockdown that helped us restrict individuals' movement, and there were drones and helicopters hovering overhead in all areas," he said.

“To carry out any attack, there should be a group of about five or more to offer logistical support or cover, who can move freely. So anyone, whether ISIS or militias, realised that conditions weren’t perfect.”

The security source said he was surprised the group was silent on the papal visit.

“To be honest, we don’t know why ISIS didn’t issue a statement, but what I can say is that ISIS today is not the one we saw more than six years ago,” he says.

“Not only has their military capability been heavily degraded, but also their presence on social media and their ability to share materials, whether visual or text.”

But the security officer said that this was no reason for Iraqi forces to drop their guard.

“Maybe we can see something on that in the near future,” he said.

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Director: Alfonso Cuaron

Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville

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Classification of skills

A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.

A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.

The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.

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Sand storm

Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
Travel distance: Limited
Source: Open desert areas with strong winds

Dust storm

Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
Duration: Can linger for days
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Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem

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The specs

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Why it pays to compare

A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.

Route 1: bank transfer

The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.

Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount

Total received: €4,670.30

Route 2: online platform

The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.

Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction

Total received: €4,756

The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.

How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now

Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.

The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.

1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):

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2. For those who have worked more than five years

c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.

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Who is Allegra Stratton?

Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth

DMZ facts

The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012.
Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.