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A new $100 million package in US humanitarian aid for the Palestinians is seen as token gesture in Jordan and Egypt, the Arab countries most concerned that the Gaza-Israel war could lead to a refugee crisis, regional sources said.
US President Joe Biden pledged the aid last week during a visit to Israel primarily aimed at bolstering support for its offensive on Gaza.
Israel started sweeping military operations in retaliation to a surprise cross-border attack by the Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas on October 7. The attack pierced what was seen as impregnable Israeli defences.
Mr Biden said the money will "support more than one million displaced and conflict-affected Palestinians, including emergency needs in Gaza".
Days later, his administration asked Congress for $105 billion in military aid, mostly for Israel and Ukraine, while continuing to oppose pleas for a ceasefire from its Arab allies, particularly Jordan and Egypt.
Authorities in the two countries have said the war could result in Palestinian refugees flooding into their territories. In the case of Egypt, their destination could be to the Sinai, where security forces for the past three years have waged a campaign to contain ISIS.
Jordanian officials have been repeatedly warning that the war could spread to the West Bank and force refugees to the kingdom, constituting a so-called third wave. The first two waves were when Israel was created in 1948, and during its subsequent expansion in 1967.
A western diplomat in Amman said staff at US embassies have been "putting out feelers" to gauge how the $100 million is being viewed in Jordan and Egypt.
"They seem to be oblivious to [the] overarching scene, which is the Israeli destruction of Gaza," the diplomat said. "
"In these circumstances $100 million is bound to appear symbolic – an attempt at alleviating the damage rather than stopping it."
Washington is already the main provider for funds for the UN agency that supports Palestinian refugees in Gaza and in the rest of the Levant. It is also the largest donor to Jordan and Egypt.
Despite disagreements with Washington over the Palestinian issue, sharpened after the latest war in Gaza, Jordanian and Egyptian officials have kept away from direct criticism of the United States.
They are the only two Arab counties with official peace treaties with Israel, and have strong security ties with Washington.
A Jordanian official declined to comment on Mr Biden's new $100 million aid pledge, pointing out numerous Jordanian calls in the past two weeks for a ceasefire in Gaza and vehement opposition to the idea of more refugees heading towards the kingdom.
"We're telling the Americans in private what we are are saying in public," the official said.
There was no immediate reaction from Egyptian officials.
Lebanon fears
In Lebanon, where the presence of more than 200,000 Palestinian refugees is a deeply sensitive topic, one official said the US aid pledge was unlikely to have an effect on Lebanon.
“This does not necessarily mean it will have an impact on Lebanon more than the Palestinian refugee crisis has impacted Lebanon during the past decades," said a representative of parliament's largest party, the Lebanese Forces.
"There was a heavy impact on Lebanon socially, politically – it even led Lebanon to a war," the official said, referring to the role Palestinian armed groups played in the 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War.
"And we are still suffering from its consequences. But coming today with aid to show support for the Palestinian people against Hamas activities – this is totally different," the source said.
“What’s good today is that the Palestinian cause has emerged as a priority again and this is what we have been calling for. The only permanent solution … is based on a two-state solution."
Egyptian political commentator Ali Al Idreesi said Washington's intentions would have appeared more credible had it indicated that the $100 million would be dispersed quickly, given the impact of the war on civilians in Gaza.
Mr Al Idreesi, who teaches political economy at the Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport, said the money will do nothing to remove "clear pressure being put on Egypt to take a new influx of displaced Palestinians into Sinai".
He said the US should forcefully oppose any potential Israeli moves that could lead to such a scenario, as more Palestinians move toward the Egyptian border.
"In my opinion, this [scenario] will not repair anything," Mr Al Idreesi said. "It will more likely ignite a new and more violent phase of the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
The reported death toll has exceeded 5,000 Palestinians in Gaza, with 1,400 Israelis killed on October 7.
Days after the war started, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in Cairo that the idea of displacement is a "non-starter, and so we do not support it".
