Despite assurances from President Vladimir Putin that he has no intention to seize more territory from Ukraine, European leaders are still braced for a long stand-off with the Kremlin. Not long ago, Mr Putin said that he would not send troops to take over Crimea. But already the peninsula is under full Russian military control and on a path to formal annexation by Russia.
There is no question of a military response from the Nato alliance, even though Mr Putin has torn up the European security system by invading a foreign state on the pretext of protecting a population that was actually under no threat at all.
To those who berate President Barack Obama for weakness, it is worth noting that American presidents have always been prudent in past cases of Kremlin muscle-flexing in Europe. There was no military response from President Eisenhower in 1956 when Soviet troops put down the Hungarian uprising. Nato powers sat on their hands when the “Prague Spring” was rolled back in 1968 by the armies of the USSR and its east European allies.
Historical comparisons with the Cold War era, however, do not tell the full story. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the United States had a clear economic sanction that would hurt the Soviet Union – a ban on sales of US grain, which were needed to make up for the weakness of collectivised farming. This made meat even scarcer for the Soviet consumer. The effect on the western economy was minimal, except for some lost sales by US farmers, who have never been short of government subsidy.
Today the western powers are facing a far tougher choice: the economies of Europe and Russia have become ever more closely entwined as Russia has joined the globalised economy. In political terms, the economies are rather different: liberal market capitalism in the European Union and authoritarian crony capitalism in the east. But they use the same banks and pore over the same dealing terminals.
A “cold war” in a globalised world is thus an unknown quantity. Politics and economics are pulling in different directions, and so far economics has the stronger pull.
Despite clear calls for the 28 members of the European Union to impose economic sanctions, the results have so far been weak. The EU has imposed penalties, including travel bans, on 21 Russian and Ukrainian officials, and more of the same is likely to follow. But nothing is on the table that would really hurt.
Officially, the explanation is that the EU is holding its big guns in reserve for use in case Mr Putin tries to seize the Russian-speaking parts of eastern Ukraine. In practice, no one wants to lose business with Russia or endanger energy supplies.
Europe relies on Russia for a quarter of its gas supplies. In Germany, 300,000 jobs are said to depend on trade with Russia. France is currently supplying Russia with two Mistral-class helicopter assault ships – one named Sevastopol after Russia’s Crimean naval base – in a €1.2 billion (Dh6.9bn) deal. The British financial services industry has a lucrative business in recycling Russian oligarchs’ money.
Mr Putin is a careful tactician and has no doubt discounted the likely western response. He may not be excessively worried by a cooling of financial ties with Europe. One of his key projects is to repatriate an estimated $1 trillion (Dh3.7tn) in capital held abroad, much of it in Europe, by banning politicians and officials from holding offshore financial assets. Such money, according to the Kremlin, should be used for investment in Russia.
Thanks to high oil prices, Russia has gold and foreign currency reserves of close to $500bn. This is an ample cushion to ensure financial stability in the short term. But in the longer term, the major difference with the Cold War era becomes apparent. In communist times, leaders did not have to worry about capital outflows, falling stock markets or the plummeting value of the currency.
Mr Putin does have to worry about these now. His plans to create a Eurasian Union, an economic bloc of like-minded former Soviet states, are at an early stage and may never succeed in rivalling the EU. For the moment he has to engage with the world as it is and play by the rules of the globalised economy. Russia needs to modernise and for that it has to have exposure to European and American finance and business methods. Without those, the best and brightest will leave the country and find jobs abroad.
Mr Putin, like the Europeans, finds himself pulled in opposite directions by politics and economics. To preserve any sense of Russia being a great power, he has to wield a veto over the alliances of the former Soviet countries on Russia’s borders, particularly Belarus, Ukraine and Georgia. Mr Putin has to scare the Nato alliance from offering membership to these countries, as he did in 2008 when he invaded Georgia. Governments in these countries have to be aware that their sovereignty is constrained by their big neighbour.
But these geopolitical aspirations do nothing for the Russian economy. Rather, the political uncertainty saps confidence. Goldman Sachs estimates that capital flight from Russia has doubled since the start of the year, to between $45bn and $50bn, suggesting that the outflow over the whole year could be as much as $130bn. At the same time, economic growth is declining, to as low as 1 per cent this year according to some estimates, severely constraining the government’s ability to raise public sector wages.
The optimistic assessment is that economics will dampen Mr Putin’s geopolitical aspirations and the strength of the western response. The red figures on the bond traders’ screens will avert a new cold war. The opposite view is that the adulation that Mr Putin has received from his Crimean gambit will awaken an appetite for more, given that he can offer the people no economic feel-good factor. Then the European governments will be forced to ignore their business lobbies and come up with a real response.
The writer is a commentator on global affairs
On Twitter: @aphilps
Company%20profile
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Changing visa rules
For decades the UAE has granted two and three year visas to foreign workers, tied to their current employer. Now that's changing.
Last year, the UAE cabinet also approved providing 10-year visas to foreigners with investments in the UAE of at least Dh10 million, if non-real estate assets account for at least 60 per cent of the total. Investors can bring their spouses and children into the country.
It also approved five-year residency to owners of UAE real estate worth at least 5 million dirhams.
The government also said that leading academics, medical doctors, scientists, engineers and star students would be eligible for similar long-term visas, without the need for financial investments in the country.
The first batch - 20 finalists for the Mohammed bin Rashid Medal for Scientific Distinction.- were awarded in January and more are expected to follow.
Company Profile
Founder: Omar Onsi
Launched: 2018
Employees: 35
Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)
Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners
Company%20Profile
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if you go
The flights Fly Dubai, Air Arabia, Emirates, Etihad, and Royal Jordanian all offer direct, three-and-a-half-hour flights from the UAE to the Jordanian capital Amman. Alternatively, from June Fly Dubai will offer a new direct service from Dubai to Aqaba in the south of the country. See the airlines’ respective sites for varying prices or search on reliable price-comparison site Skyscanner.
The trip
Jamie Lafferty was a guest of the Jordan Tourist Board. For more information on adventure tourism in Jordan see Visit Jordan. A number of new and established tour companies offer the chance to go caving, rock-climbing, canyoning, and mountaineering in Jordan. Prices vary depending on how many activities you want to do and how many days you plan to stay in the country. Among the leaders are Terhaal, who offer a two-day canyoning trip from Dh845 per person. If you really want to push your limits, contact the Stronger Team. For a more trek-focused trip, KE Adventure offers an eight-day trip from Dh5,300 per person.
The Freedom Artist
By Ben Okri (Head of Zeus)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
WHEN TO GO:
September to November or March to May; this is when visitors are most likely to see what they’ve come for.
WHERE TO STAY:
Meghauli Serai, A Taj Safari - Chitwan National Park resort (tajhotels.com) is a one-hour drive from Bharatpur Airport with stays costing from Dh1,396 per night, including taxes and breakfast. Return airport transfers cost from Dh661.
HOW TO GET THERE:
Etihad Airways regularly flies from Abu Dhabi to Kathmandu from around Dh1,500 per person return, including taxes. Buddha Air (buddhaair.com) and Yeti Airlines (yetiairlines.com) fly from Kathmandu to Bharatpur several times a day from about Dh660 return and the flight takes just 20 minutes. Driving is possible but the roads are hilly which means it will take you five or six hours to travel 148 kilometres.
Score
New Zealand 266 for 9 in 50 overs
Pakistan 219 all out in 47.2 overs
New Zealand win by 47 runs
New Zealand lead three-match ODI series 1-0
Next match: Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi, Friday
RESULTS
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Samau Xmnsor, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Ottoman, Szczepan Mazur, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Sharkh, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 85,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Yaraa, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Maaly Al Reef, Bernardo Pinheiro, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Jinjal, Fabrice Veron, Ahmed Al Shemaili
8pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Al Sail, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
Company%20Profile
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The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
Day 2, stumps
Pakistan 482
Australia 30/0 (13 ov)
Australia trail by 452 runs with 10 wickets remaining in the innings
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%208
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Company%20Profile
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Springtime in a Broken Mirror,
Mario Benedetti, Penguin Modern Classics
Results
2pm: Handicap Dh 90,000 1,800m; Winner: Majestic Thunder, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.30pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,950m; Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
3pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m; Winner: Native Appeal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
3.30pm: Jebel Ali Classic Conditions Dh300,000 1,400m; Winner: Thegreatcollection, Adrie de Vries, Doug Watson.
4pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m; Winner: Oktalgano, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
4.30pm: Conditions Dh250,000 1,400m; Winner: Madame Ellingtina, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m; Winner: Mystery Land, Fabrice Veron, Helal Al Alawi.
5.30pm: Handicap Dh85,000 1,000m; Winner: Shanaghai City, Jesus Rosales, Rashed Bouresly.
It
Director: Andres Muschietti
Starring: Bill Skarsgard, Jaeden Lieberher, Sophia Lillis, Chosen Jacobs, Jeremy Ray Taylor
Three stars
RACE CARD
6.30pm Mazrat Al Ruwayah – Group 2 (PA) $36,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Turf) 2,410m
7.40pm Meydan Trophy – Conditions (TB) $50,000 (T) 1,900m
8.15pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 - Group 2 (TB) $293,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m
9.25pm Handicap (TB) $65,000 (T) 1,000m
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine