The North Cove in the Antarctic. AP
The North Cove in the Antarctic. AP
The North Cove in the Antarctic. AP
The North Cove in the Antarctic. AP

Window to limit global warming to 1.5°C 'is closing'


Gillian Duncan
  • English
  • Arabic

The window to limit global warming to 1.5°C is closing, research has shown.

A team at Imperial College London issued the warning after analysing the global carbon budget, which calculates how much carbon dioxide can be emitted into the atmosphere while keeping temperature rises within certain limits.

The calculation uses targets set by the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the increase in global temperatures to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

The study, published on Monday in Nature Climate Change, shows that if CO2 emissions remain at 2022 levels of about 40 gigatonnes per year, the carbon budget will be exhausted by about 2029, committing the world to warming of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

Robin Lamboll, research fellow at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, told The National the study provides the most up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of the budget, which shows “the window to limit warming to 1.5°C is closing”.

“This is not completely unexpected. We released a paper in June, which also intimated that this was a likely change,” said Dr Lamboll.

“But this paper does a lot more checks and robustness calculations and shows that yes, probably the previous budget was over generous.”

Cop28, which will be held this November in Dubai in a year which is likely to be the hottest on record “by quite a large amount” and will also probably see the highest emissions on record, “presents an opportunity for governments to come up with stronger commitments to make the transition to renewable energy”, said Dr Lamboll.

“Last year we didn’t really see Cop advancing much action in terms of preventing climate change, but more focus on moving money to those who are most affected by it.

“I would hope that we would see that effort continue, but doesn’t detract from the main avenue of simply trying to prevent climate change in the first place. So both are important. But I would imagine, I would hope, that this Cop has more continued support for climate action.

“And that people look at all these records being broken and say gosh, we really need to do more than we are.”

The study also found that if CO2 emissions continue at current levels, the central 2°C budget will be exhausted by 2046.

Dr Lamboll said the study shows the window for a 2°C warming or “well below 2°C” remains open.

“That budget shrank. But it shrank by a smaller amount, both in absolute and in relative terms. So very much not saying the Paris Agreement is dead.

“There is very much opportunity to keep that alive. And it is worth noting that two Cops ago we saw significant movement and we did see more governments coming forth with better climate targets, meaning that actually it’s possible if we optimistically interpret these for projections to indicate below 2°.

“So we have to hope that this Cop has a similar power and once again brings forth new commitments to faster roll-out of renewable energy.”

The new research used an updated data set and improved climate modelling compared to other recent estimates, published in June, characterising these uncertainties and increasing confidence around the remaining carbon budget estimates.

Climate tipping points – in pictures

The new calculations mean the budget is less than previously calculated and has roughly halved since 2020 due to the continued increase of global greenhouse gas emissions, caused primarily from the burning of fossil fuels as well as an improved estimate of the cooling effect of aerosols, which are decreasing globally due to measures to improve air quality and reduce emissions.

The strengthened methodology also gave new insights into the importance of the potential responses of the climate system to achieving net zero.

“Net zero” refers to achieving an overall balance between global emissions produced and emissions removed from the atmosphere.

According to the modelling results in the study, there are still large uncertainties about the years before net zero is achieved.

The climate could continue warming due to effects such as melting ice, the release of methane and changes in ocean circulation.

However, carbon sinks such as increased vegetation growth could also absorb large amounts of CO2, leading to a cooling of global temperatures before net zero is achieved.

Dr Lamboll said these uncertainties further highlight the urgent need to rapidly cut emissions.

“At this stage, our best guess is that the opposing warming and cooling will approximately cancel each other out after we reach net zero.

“However, it’s only when we only when we cut emissions and get closer to net zero that we will be able to see what the longer-term heating and cooling adjustments will look like.

“Every fraction of a degree of warming will make life harder for people and ecosystems. This study is yet another warning from the scientific community. Now it is up to governments to act.”

ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

ESSENTIALS

The flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.

The hotels

Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.

The tours

A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages. 

Honeymoonish
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elie%20El%20Samaan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENour%20Al%20Ghandour%2C%20Mahmoud%20Boushahri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg

Volvo ES90 Specs

Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)

Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp

Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm

On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region

Price: Exact regional pricing TBA

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs

Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12

Power: 819hp

Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm

Price: From Dh1,700,000

Available: Now

BMW M5 specs

Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor

Power: 727hp

Torque: 1,000Nm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh650,000

Gothia Cup 2025

4,872 matches 

1,942 teams

116 pitches

76 nations

26 UAE teams

15 Lebanese teams

2 Kuwaiti teams

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
The specs

Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo

Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm

Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm

Transmission: eight-speed auto

Price: from Dh130,000

On sale: now

The biog

Siblings: five brothers and one sister

Education: Bachelors in Political Science at the University of Minnesota

Interests: Swimming, tennis and the gym

Favourite place: UAE

Favourite packet food on the trip: pasta primavera

What he did to pass the time during the trip: listen to audio books

Updated: October 31, 2023, 4:06 PM`