The US Federal Reserve moved to dismantle a pillar of crisis-era support for the world’s biggest economy and stuck with its forecast to raise interest rates again this year, saying hurricane damage won’t derail an otherwise healthy expansion.
“Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship,” the Federal open market committee (FOMC) said on Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington. “Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term.”
In the statement, the Fed set October for the start of their previously announced plan to shrink its US$4.5 trillion balance sheet. As expected, policymakers left the benchmark interest rate unchanged in a range of 1 per cent to 1.25 per cent.
“We continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases in that rate to sustain a healthy labour market and stabilise inflation around our 2 percent longer-run objective,” said the chairman Janet Yellen. She called this year’s inflation undershoot a “mystery”.
Treasury prices fell and the dollar rose as investors weighed the Fed’s plans to press ahead with gradual policy tightening. US stocks were little changed.
US central bankers are counting on steady growth and low unemployment to raise inflation closer to their goal, which would support their policy of gradual tightening through interest-rate increases and a reversal of quantitative easing.
“When the storm effects fade the economy will be as strong as before they hit, and that requires the gradual normalisation of policy to continue,” Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in an emailed note.
The announcement is a third big policy step by Ms Yellen, now in the final year of her term as Fed chair: she has overseen the end of large-scale asset purchases; the liftoff of rates from zero; and now the pullback from an unprecedented balance- sheet buildup without disruption to financial markets or the economy so far.
While the storms will temporarily boost inflation thanks to higher prices for gasoline and other items, “apart from that effect, inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 per cent in the near term but to stabilise around the committee’s 2 per cent objective over the medium term,” the Fed said.
The economy expanded at a 2.1 per cent annual rate in the first half - in line with the pace during this expansion - and US government 10-year notes yield about 2.24 per cent, down from 2.45 per cent at the start of the year. The Fed’s preferred price gauge rose 1.4 per cent in July from a year earlier.
“The labour market has continued to strengthen” and economic activity “has been rising moderately so far this year,” the Fed said. The FOMC repeated language saying “near- term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced”.The decision to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and begin the balance-sheet run-off in October was unanimous. The Fed reiterated that interest rates are likely to rise at a “gradual” pace, though updated forecasts indicated that officials see the path as less steep than before.
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In their new set of projections, Fed officials estimated three quarter-point rate hikes would be appropriate next year - the same number they saw in June - based on the median in the so- called dot plot of interest-rate forecasts.
The Fed’s decision to exit from balance-sheet policies comes a decade after the global financial crisis began to tip the economy into a recession at the end of 2007. The reduction in assets will be slow - just US$10 billion a month to start.
“They have been very cautious,” said Drew Matus, the chief market strategist at MetLife Investments.
“Other countries went into quantitative easing and they are still stuck,” Mr Matus added. “The US is the first to get out.”
The Fed said the balance-sheet runoff would follow the framework released in June: $6bn in Treasuries and $4bn in mortgage-backed securities per month, rising every three months until the amounts reach $30bn and $20bn per month, respectively. The Fed anticipates ending the run off at some point, though it doesn’t yet have a specific date.
Minutes from the July meeting showed deepening worries about a prolonged period of low inflation. FOMC participants - including Fed governors and regional bank presidents - forecast that inflation will reach their 2 per cent target in 2019, compared with an expectation of 2018 in June, based on median estimates. They have missed the target for most of the past five years.
The quarterly projections also showed: four policymakers said the best policy would be to keep rates on hold for the remainder of this year, the same number as in the June projections; one person sought two more rate hikes this year, down from four officials previously; Fed officials held their longer-run estimate of the unemployment rate that corresponds to maximum labour resource use at 4.6 per cent while lowering their projections of the jobless rate in 2018 and 2019 to 4.1 per cent; policymakers lowered their long-run estimate for a federal funds rate that keeps supply and demand in balance in the economy to a median of 2.75 per cent, from 3 per cent in the June projections; the median estimate for economic growth in 2017 rose to 2.4 per cent from 2.2 per cent, while the core inflation forecast fell to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent; long-run growth projection was unchanged at 1.8 per cent.
The decision to set the first balance sheet roll-offs for October was in line with the expectations of a majority of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of the meeting. Economists had also forecast that Fed policymakers would maintain their projection for one more rate increase this year, and take that action in December.
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Revibe
Started: 2022
Founders: Hamza Iraqui and Abdessamad Ben Zakour
Based: UAE
Industry: Refurbished electronics
Funds raised so far: $10m
Investors: Flat6Labs, Resonance and various others
Lampedusa: Gateway to Europe
Pietro Bartolo and Lidia Tilotta
Quercus
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
The biog
Favourite book: You Are the Placebo – Making your mind matter, by Dr Joe Dispenza
Hobby: Running and watching Welsh rugby
Travel destination: Cyprus in the summer
Life goals: To be an aspirational and passionate University educator, enjoy life, be healthy and be the best dad possible.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Profile Box
Company/date started: 2015
Founder/CEO: Mohammed Toraif
Based: Manama, Bahrain
Sector: Sales, Technology, Conservation
Size: (employees/revenue) 4/ 5,000 downloads
Stage: 1 ($100,000)
Investors: Two first-round investors including, 500 Startups, Fawaz Al Gosaibi Holding (Saudi Arabia)
What is the Supreme Petroleum Council?
The Abu Dhabi Supreme Petroleum Council was established in 1988 and is the highest governing body in Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas industry. The council formulates, oversees and executes the emirate’s petroleum-related policies. It also approves the allocation of capital spending across state-owned Adnoc’s upstream, downstream and midstream operations and functions as the company’s board of directors. The SPC’s mandate is also required for auctioning oil and gas concessions in Abu Dhabi and for awarding blocks to international oil companies. The council is chaired by Sheikh Khalifa, the President and Ruler of Abu Dhabi while Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, is the vice chairman.
SCORES
Yorkshire Vikings 144-1 in 12.5 overs
(Tom Kohler 72 not out, Harry Broook 42 not out)
bt Hobart Hurricanes 140-7 in 20 overs
(Caleb Jewell 38, Sean Willis 35, Karl Carver 2-29, Josh Shaw 2-39)
Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a+“three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
Itcan profile
Founders: Mansour Althani and Abdullah Althani
Based: Business Bay, with offices in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India
Sector: Technology, digital marketing and e-commerce
Size: 70 employees
Revenue: On track to make Dh100 million in revenue this year since its 2015 launch
Funding: Self-funded to date
SPEC SHEET
Display: 10.9" Liquid Retina IPS, 2360 x 1640, 264ppi, wide colour, True Tone, Apple Pencil support
Chip: Apple M1, 8-core CPU, 8-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Memory: 64/256GB storage; 8GB RAM
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, Smart HDR
Video: 4K @ 25/25/30/60fps, full HD @ 25/30/60fps, slo-mo @ 120/240fps
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR, Centre Stage; full HD @ 25/30/60fps
Audio: Stereo speakers
Biometrics: Touch ID
I/O: USB-C, smart connector (for folio/keyboard)
Battery: Up to 10 hours on Wi-Fi; up to 9 hours on cellular
Finish: Space grey, starlight, pink, purple, blue
Price: Wi-Fi – Dh2,499 (64GB) / Dh3,099 (256GB); cellular – Dh3,099 (64GB) / Dh3,699 (256GB)
Directed by: Craig Gillespie
Starring: Emma Stone, Emma Thompson, Joel Fry
4/5
Sting & Shaggy
44/876
(Interscope)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last-16 second leg
Paris Saint-Germain (1) v Borussia Dortmund (2)
Kick-off: Midnight, Thursday, March 12
Stadium: Parc des Princes
Live: On beIN Sports HD
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The specs: Volvo XC40
Price: base / as tested: Dh185,000
Engine: 2.0-litre, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 250hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 350Nm @ 1,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.4L / 100km
MORE ON THE US DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Squads
India (for first three ODIs) Kohli (capt), Rohit, Rahul, Pandey, Jadhav, Rahane, Dhoni, Pandya, Axar, Kuldeep, Chahal, Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar, Umesh, Shami.
Australia Smith (capt), Warner, Agar, Cartwright, Coulter-Nile, Cummins, Faulkner, Finch, Head, Maxwell, Richardson, Stoinis, Wade, Zampa.
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
Cricket World Cup League Two
Teams
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
Fixtures
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Oman
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
UK record temperature
38.7C (101.7F) set in Cambridge in 2019
WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
MORE ON IRAN'S PROXY WARS
Company Profile
Name: Direct Debit System
Started: Sept 2017
Based: UAE with a subsidiary in the UK
Industry: FinTech
Funding: Undisclosed
Investors: Elaine Jones
Number of employees: 8
Most polluted cities in the Middle East
1. Baghdad, Iraq
2. Manama, Bahrain
3. Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
4. Kuwait City, Kuwait
5. Ras Al Khaimah, UAE
6. Ash Shihaniyah, Qatar
7. Abu Dhabi, UAE
8. Cairo, Egypt
9. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
10. Dubai, UAE
Source: 2022 World Air Quality Report
MOST POLLUTED COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD
1. Chad
2. Iraq
3. Pakistan
4. Bahrain
5. Bangladesh
6. Burkina Faso
7. Kuwait
8. India
9. Egypt
10. Tajikistan
Source: 2022 World Air Quality Report
Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Klipit
Started: 2022
Founders: Venkat Reddy, Mohammed Al Bulooki, Bilal Merchant, Asif Ahmed, Ovais Merchant
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Digital receipts, finance, blockchain
Funding: $4 million
Investors: Privately/self-funded