Electric car shipments to hit 15m in 2023 as emissions regulations tighten, Gartner says

Rules will prompt car makers to pivot more than half of the vehicle models marketed to EVs by 2030, study shows

A BYD Seal electric sedan at the Munich Motor Show. Electric cars are expected to represent about 97 per cent of all electric vehicle shipments this year. Bloomberg

Makers of electric cars are expected to deliver about 15 million units globally in 2023, as regulations meant to curb emissions further tighten, a study has shown.

The projected figure of 14.98 million would be a surge of nearly 35 per cent compared to 2022, research company Gartner said in its latest sector update.

That would represent about 97 per cent of all electric vehicle shipments this year, with the rest being 218,337 vans, 202,733 buses and 30,162 heavy trucks, the US research firm said.

Electric car shipments are then expected to rise a further 19.2 per cent year-on-year to 17.86 million units by the end of 2024, maintaining the sector's dominance over the rest of the field, the report showed.

Shipments of electric vans, however, are forecast to record the largest rate of increase next year at more than 60 per cent, while electric heavy truck deliveries would jump by nearly a third. Electric buses are expected to record a modest 2.5 per cent growth.

"Ever-tightening emission regulations will lead automakers to pivot more than half of the vehicle models marketed to EVs by 2030,” Jonathan Davenport, a senior director analyst at Gartner, wrote in the report.

The global EV market continues to grow amid a government and societal shift towards energy conservation, with car makers' consumer and commercial divisions tapping into the technology's potential.

Several governments have offered incentives including subsidies and tax credits to convince people to buy EVs, but potential customers should meet certain criteria to avail those benefits.

The global EV market is projected to grow more than threefold to about $1.6 trillion by 2030, from an estimated $500 billion in 2023, at a compound annual rate of nearly 18 per cent throughout the decade, latest data from Fortune Business Insights shows.

Segment-wise, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are projected to maintain their leading position, growing 22 per cent to 11 million units by the end of 2023, compared to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which are estimated to grow by a third to four million units, the Gartner study said.

By 2030, EV models are projected to comprise more than 50 per cent of all models produced by car manufacturers, driven by state actions to promote the use of EVs, Gartner said.

Government initiatives to reduce vehicle emissions, the implementation of legislation that only allows the sale of zero-emission vehicles and seeking to enforce PHEVs as a minimum are among the reasons car makers have shifted more towards EVs, it said.

PHEVs, as a percentage of total EVs, are expected to slightly grow in countries such as the US, Canada and Japan, as consumers in those countries prefer PHEVs to BEVs, Gartner said.

"US consumers who are transitioning from a pure internal combustion engine [ICE] car are choosing to adopt PHEVs over their BEV counterparts because PHEVs combine the ability to deliver emission-free urban driving, with the convenience of gasoline powered propulsion for longer journeys,” Mr Davenport said.

“The situation is different in western Europe, China and to a lesser extent India, where consumers favour BEVs' lower overall running costs, quieter driving experience and green credentials.”

Meanwhile, the average price of a BEV is expected to reach parity with ICE vehicles of similar sizes and configurations by 2027, which will help accelerate the global adoption of EVs, Gartner said.

However, by 2030, power generation and network capacity have the potential to act as inhibiting factors to mass EV deployment regardless of price, the report said.

“Unless countries take actions to incentivise EV drivers to charge outside peak electricity consumption periods, the switch to EVs may put an additional strain on both the power generation capacity and the distribution infrastructure,” Mr Davenport said.