A new Iranian joke has one man asking another how many rials a dollar will buy. The other replies, "You mean now … or now?" Sanctions on Iran's oil sales and mismanagement by the government of president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have triggered a collapse in the country's currency.
Those advocating sanctions against Iran have seized on this as evidence that their policy is "working".
But the logic is incomplete. Clearly sanctions are hurting ordinary Iranians. Yet to speak of economic "collapse" is misleading. To assume that the rial's fall must pose serious political danger to the regime is even more far-fetched.
At the start of Iran's revolution in 1978, 70 rials bought one dollar. After a decade of war and two decades of sanctions, the currency had declined to about 10,000 per dollar by 1999.
From then on, increasing oil prices allowed the government to feed dollars into the economy to stabilise the exchange rate, which remained quite steady until this year, and to control domestic inflation.
This year, with Iran's oil exports cut to less than half their usual levels, the rial dropped sharply in January and again in the past few days, before recovering slightly to about 29,000 to the dollar.
The psychological impact of the rial's plunge is perhaps more important than its economic effect.
The decline has laid bare the depths of the regime's mismanagement, and made clear the costs of the nuclear stand-off. It has contributed to a deepening atmosphere of gloom and hopelessness among ordinary Iranians. And it has, unusually, brought the merchant "bazaari" class out in protest.
This might recall the eventual fall of the Soviet Union after the 1986 oil price crash, or Iraq's grim decade under embargo following the invasion of Kuwait. But this would be misleading.
Iran has little foreign debt, and surging imports have largely been modest "luxuries" for the middle class. In contrast, the Soviet Union was reliant on credits to pay for massive food imports, while Iraq was defeated, encircled and with its oil sales under external control.
The Ahmadinejad administration's handling of the economy has generally been dismal. Yet it did introduce a major economic reform, replacing wasteful energy subsidies with cash handouts, cushioning the lower classes.
Petrol imports, the sanctions lobby's topic du jour in 2010, have been largely eliminated.
Oil prices remain high, and would have been higher still were it not for the weak global economy. For the West to rely on dismal economic news to sustain oil sanctions is hardly a winning or popular strategy.
Iran's response to the sanctions has been surprisingly clumsy but, given time, it will chip away at sanctions, develop smuggling relationships, build up its tanker fleet, and arrange alternative insurance.
Once China grows accustomed to discounted Iranian oil, it will have no incentive to assist either in ending sanctions or tightening them further. Iran's other key customers, India, Japan and South Korea, will also seek to keep buying even if at somewhat reduced levels.
As long as oil prices do not fall sharply, Tehran can continue to bring in enough oil revenues to continue paying off key regime supporters. Meanwhile the West's natural allies within Iran, the urban, educated middle class, decline through destitution and emigration.
Those who reluctantly embrace economic warfare as the best alternative to bombs hope to buy time for an unspecified but positive change. But Iran's curious political system and major oil exports make it resilient even to the pressure of the slumping rial. A single number is not an explanation for how sanctions can force or persuade Tehran to the negotiating table.
Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy, and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
THE LOWDOWN
Romeo Akbar Walter
Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Timeline
1947
Ferrari’s road-car company is formed and its first badged car, the 125 S, rolls off the assembly line
1962
250 GTO is unveiled
1969
Fiat becomes a Ferrari shareholder, acquiring 50 per cent of the company
1972
The Fiorano circuit, Ferrari’s racetrack for development and testing, opens
1976
First automatic Ferrari, the 400 Automatic, is made
1987
F40 launched
1988
Enzo Ferrari dies; Fiat expands its stake in the company to 90 per cent
2002
The Enzo model is announced
2010
Ferrari World opens in Abu Dhabi
2011
First four-wheel drive Ferrari, the FF, is unveiled
2013
LaFerrari, the first Ferrari hybrid, arrives
2014
Fiat Chrysler announces the split of Ferrari from the parent company
2015
Ferrari launches on Wall Street
2017
812 Superfast unveiled; Ferrari celebrates its 70th anniversary
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
The specs: McLaren 600LT
Price, base: Dh914,000
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 620Nm @ 5,500rpm
Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km
Hotel Data Cloud profile
Date started: June 2016
Founders: Gregor Amon and Kevin Czok
Based: Dubai
Sector: Travel Tech
Size: 10 employees
Funding: $350,000 (Dh1.3 million)
Investors: five angel investors (undisclosed except for Amar Shubar)
The Little Things
Directed by: John Lee Hancock
Starring: Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, Jared Leto
Four stars
Marathon results
Men:
1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13
2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50
3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25
4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46
5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48
Women:
1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30
2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01
3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30
4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43
5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01
Frida%20
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Signs%20of%20%20%20%20%20%20%20heat%20stroke
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20loss%20of%20sodium%20chloride%20in%20our%20sweat%20can%20lead%20to%20confusion%20and%20an%20altered%20mental%20status%20and%20slurred%20speech%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBody%20temperature%20above%2039%C2%B0C%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHot%2C%20dry%20and%20red%20or%20damp%20skin%20can%20indicate%20heatstroke%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EA%20faster%20pulse%20than%20usual%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDizziness%2C%20nausea%20and%20headaches%20are%20also%20signs%20of%20overheating%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIn%20extreme%20cases%2C%20victims%20can%20lose%20consciousness%20and%20require%20immediate%20medical%20attention%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai