A dhow sails on Dubai creek as it passes the QE2 docked at Port Rashid in Dubai in 2009. AP Photo
A dhow sails on Dubai creek as it passes the QE2 docked at Port Rashid in Dubai in 2009. AP Photo

Painful lessons learnt, brighter days ahead



It was around this time in 2008 that I was gazing out of my top-storey office window at the bustling, vibrant streets and towers of Dubai below. The majestic QE2 was anchored in the shining Arabian Gulf, business was good and the whole country seemed to give off a sense of invincibility; an oasis of everlasting good times awash with opportunity.

But storm clouds were gathering in the West. The boom was turning to bust and the global media was doing its best to make light of just what was happening to the financial system. We all heard about it, but the general consensus was that we were somehow insulated in the GCC from the brunt of the global financial downturn by the pedestal of petrodollars that formed the base of this "economic miracle".

How wrong we were. The regional stock markets started to tumble, but it took a while before liquidity in the banks dried up, and with it the engine of Dubai's growth: property. The growth capital being injected into nascent industries in the region was rapidly withdrawn and people were losing their jobs everywhere. The confidence that was once a hallmark of UAE executives disappeared overnight, and the wheels of this vibrant economy stopped turning.

Contrast this with today. The West is in a new round of debt crises, albeit a more protracted affair, and the eastern bubble may be ready to burst, with both China and India cooling spending while wrestling with soaring inflation. This month stock markets in Abu Dhabi and Dubai slumped to lows not plumbed since February, while the Saudi Arabian market shed 5.6 per cent in one day on the news of the US downgrade.

Yet according to a recent Yougov and Bayt.com survey, 51 per cent of UAE residents are bullish about the country's economy for the year ahead, against only 13 per cent of naysayers. A whopping 29 per cent of people are confident enough to believe that they will splash out on a new vehicle over the next 12 months, and 19 per cent believe they will be buyers in the UAE's much-maligned property market.

So is this a case of lessons not learnt, or is there a rational case for optimism in the UAE for the year ahead?

The case for optimism is compelling: if the primary engine for growth in 2008 was residential and corporate property funded by cheap credit, the engine for next year will be a different kind of construction: infrastructure. The advantage of this is that the massive funding will come from the more reliable coffers of oil-rich GCC governments, rather than the global markets. In fact, Shuaa Capital expected public capital spending in the GCC to reach 10 per cent of GDP this year, up from about 6 per cent in 2008, with Saudi Arabia, the largest economy, leading the way with an eye-opening 18 per cent of GDP against 7 per cent in 2008. The kingdom has committed an impressive US$385 billion (Dh1.41 trillion) to infrastructure over five years.

Roads, bridges, ports, railways and power stations across the region will be followed by schools, hospitals and housing, benefiting the UAE as the regional hub for a wide range of services, logistics and trade. The Emirates remains the most attractive and wealthy market in the GCC in terms of professional human capital, and therefore its competitiveness in terms of attracting jobs in the service sector is likely to remain.

However, there are risks that should concern all of us. Much of the work that needs completing will still require some level of bank financing, and there are threats to liquidity from the fragile global economy. If the policymakers in the US fail to decide on how to further cut spending by the end of the year, the markets could react badly with further downgrading of US debt. The euro zone is by no means back on track, and if shocks emerge to sectors such as the Indian property market, it could wipe billions off the value of investments held on balance sheets globally.

The knock-on effect in the UAE is that the commercial banks will need to reserve more of their funds to meet the shortfall in the value of their investments to achieve their capital adequacy requirements, as opposed to lending to construction firms, healthcare groups and the general public. Banks in the UAE have had a great year, helped in some way by the Arab Spring, where capital from around the region has poured in amid the turmoil. As those countries return to stability so will their cash, further tightening credit in the UAE.

So where does this leave the job market? It is dependent on both sector and profession, with some real winners and losers this year and next. Engineering, health care, education, corporate banking, insurance, logistics, aggregates, fast-moving consumer goods and pharmaceuticals could provide plenty of opportunities. Among the "losers" we might expect the high-end electronics, property, investment banking, asset management, transport and leisure sectors to experience slow to little growth.

All in all, there is cause for reasonable optimism about the year ahead. Intelligent employers will seek to capitalise on demand with confidence by hiring professionals with the skill or potential to thrive. Long gone are the days of hiring with reckless abandon - and good riddance.

Toby Simpson is the managing director of the Gulf Recruitment Group

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont

Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950

Engine 3.6-litre V6

Gearbox Eight-speed automatic

Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm

Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm

Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees

Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme

Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks

Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets

Cryopreservation: A timeline
  1. Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
  2. Ovarian tissue surgically removed
  3. Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
  4. Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
  5. Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now

THE SPECS

Engine: 4.0L twin-turbo V8

Gearbox: eight-speed automatic

Power: 571hp at 6,000rpm

Torque: 800Nm from 2,000-4,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 11.4L/100km

Price, base: from Dh571,000

On sale: this week

THE%20SPECS
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The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo

Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic

Power: 242bhp

Torque: 370Nm

Price: Dh136,814

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The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21

  1. Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
  2. Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
  3. Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
  4. Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
  5. Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
  6. Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
  7. Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
  8. Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
The nine articles of the 50-Year Charter

1. Dubai silk road

2.  A geo-economic map for Dubai

3. First virtual commercial city

4. A central education file for every citizen

5. A doctor to every citizen

6. Free economic and creative zones in universities

7. Self-sufficiency in Dubai homes

8. Co-operative companies in various sectors

­9: Annual growth in philanthropy

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

Vidaamuyarchi

Director: Magizh Thirumeni

Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra

Rating: 4/5

 

Company name: Play:Date

Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day

Founder: Shamim Kassibawi

Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US

Sector: Tech 

Size: 20 employees

Stage of funding: Seed

Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund

Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

Rating: 2/5

The specs

Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors

Power: 480kW

Torque: 850Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)

On sale: Now

Veere di Wedding
Dir: Shashanka Ghosh
Starring: Kareena Kapoo-Khan, Sonam Kapoor, Swara Bhaskar and Shikha Talsania ​​​​​​​
Verdict: 4 Stars

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Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinFlx%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202021%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amr%20Yussif%20(co-founder%20and%20CEO)%2C%20Mattieu%20Capelle%20(co-founder%20and%20CTO)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%20in%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.5m%20pre-seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Venture%20capital%20-%20Y%20Combinator%2C%20500%20Global%2C%20Dubai%20Future%20District%20Fund%2C%20Fox%20Ventures%2C%20Vector%20Fintech.%20Also%20a%20number%20of%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A