Fund managers are a smart bunch. Often very well remunerated to buy and sell financial securities, they are responsible for implementing a fund’s strategy and managing its trading activities. Ultimately, they oversee our mutual and pension funds and make important investment decisions that may affect our future life choices.
So, when one of the biggest US investment banks surveys more than 200 global fund managers every month, it pays to listen.
The latest report of these investors, who manage close to $600 billion in assets, finds that for the first time in more than a year, the Covid-19 pandemic is no longer the biggest risk for global financial markets. Every month since last February, those answering one of the longest-running polls of Wall Street investors highlighted the pandemic as their number one concern.
Instead, higher-than-expected inflation is weighing more heavily on their minds now, according to Bank of America's February Global Fud Manager Survey. Investors are primarily concerned that the economic recovery may unleash a surge of price growth that could be hard to contain.
And it is easy to see why they might think so. The return to normality has been boosted by unprecedented levels of stimulus from both central banks and governments.
Nowhere is this more pronounced than in the US, where President Joe Biden has just signed into law a new $1.9 trillion rescue package, which has prompted many economists to raise their growth forecasts for the world’s biggest economy.
Let us not forget this comes on top of the $900 billion raft of spending that the previous Trump administration unveiled in its dying days.
There might also be another bump to growth in the form of a potential $2bn infrastructure spending plan touted by the president in his election campaign.
It is notable that in previous surveys, fund managers had been more optimistic about a “goldilocks” scenario, where the world economy is not expanding or contracting by too much. In other words, above-trend growth paired with below-trend inflation.
But with more stimulus cheques landing on the doorsteps of US households earning less than $75,000 a year, a record number of investors now anticipate more rapid price increases in the coming year. This has sent shockwaves through the bond markets because inflation is the enemy of fixed-income securities.
This jump in inflation may not be a bad thing as it is certainly a way out of the massive debts that governments and central banks have run up
Yields, which rise as the price falls, have popped higher this year with those on the US 10-year Treasury bond, one of the world’s most closely watched interest rates, rising past 1.6 per cent from 0.9 per cent at the start of 2021. This highlights the extent to which investors have sold debt and are demanding a premium for lending to Uncle Sam.
In many ways, this jump in inflation, as long as it doesn’t go too far, may not be a bad thing as it is certainly a way out of the massive debts that governments and central banks have run up during both the post-financial crisis period and the pandemic.
Perhaps the more pertinent question for money managers if the inflation genie has been let out of the bottle is whether the market reaction is a short-term response to extraordinary stimulus and the re-opening of the economy? Or, is it more deep-rooted and long-term, which means central banks may need to think about how they control it?
The investor survey also underlined the enduring belief in a positive outlook and bullish stock markets, with nearly 90 per cent of respondents expecting company profits to grow. That is more than in the dot-com boom in the early 2000s and late 2009, when the global economy emerged from the global financial crisis.
With major global stock market indices currently trading well above long-term averages, the concern is that there is plenty of room for setbacks if company earnings start to disappoint.
Investors have put their money where their mouths are, taking their cash levels down to the lowest since March 2013. This was just before the US Federal Reserve sparked the infamous market “tantrum” by signalling its intent to wind down some of its 2008 crisis measures.
As we said at the start, fund managers are a shrewd bunch, but sometimes even the crowd can get it wrong. The authors of the survey admit the value of its use as a contrarian signal, that is to say, it can often pay to do the opposite of the consensus.
Hussein Sayed is the chief market strategist at FXTM.
Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Afghanistan fixtures
- v Australia, today
- v Sri Lanka, Tuesday
- v New Zealand, Saturday,
- v South Africa, June 15
- v England, June 18
- v India, June 22
- v Bangladesh, June 24
- v Pakistan, June 29
- v West Indies, July 4
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Federer's 11 Wimbledon finals
2003 Beat Mark Philippoussis
2004 Beat Andy Roddick
2005 Beat Andy Roddick
2006 Beat Rafael Nadal
2007 Beat Rafael Nadal
2008 Lost to Rafael Nadal
2009 Beat Andy Roddick
2012 Beat Andy Murray
2014 Lost to Novak Djokovic
2015 Lost to Novak Djokovic
2017 Beat Marin Cilic
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh135,000
Engine 1.6L turbo
Gearbox Six speed automatic with manual and sports mode
Power 165hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 240Nm @ 1,400rpm 0-100kph: 9.2 seconds
Top speed 420 kph (governed)
Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Who are the Soroptimists?
The first Soroptimists club was founded in Oakland, California in 1921. The name comes from the Latin word soror which means sister, combined with optima, meaning the best.
The organisation said its name is best interpreted as ‘the best for women’.
Since then the group has grown exponentially around the world and is officially affiliated with the United Nations. The organisation also counts Queen Mathilde of Belgium among its ranks.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Premier League results
Saturday
Crystal Palace 1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2
Cardiff City 2 West Ham United 0
Huddersfield Town 0 Bournemouth 2
Leicester City 3 Fulham 1
Newcastle United 3 Everton 2
Southampton 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Manchester City 3 Watford 1
Sunday
Liverpool 4 Burnley 2
Chelsea 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1
Arsenal 2 Manchester United 0
More on animal trafficking
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EXare%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJanuary%2018%2C%202021%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPadmini%20Gupta%2C%20Milind%20Singh%2C%20Mandeep%20Singh%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20Raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2410%20million%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E28%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMS%26amp%3BAD%20Ventures%2C%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Astra%20Amco%2C%20the%20Dubai%20International%20Financial%20Centre%2C%20Fintech%20Fund%2C%20500%20Startups%2C%20Khwarizmi%20Ventures%2C%20and%20Phoenician%20Funds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Zidane's managerial achievements
La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5