It seems like every day Brexit gets that little bit more twisty, confusing and frustrating.
If the British Parliament cannot find a satisfactory resolution the UK could still crash out of the EU without a deal, possibly as soon as April 12. Alternatives include a second referendum, general election or a long drawn-out period of uncertainty. Confused? So is everybody else.
British expats and UAE residents with ties to the UK will be wondering where this leaves them. Here are some of the questions people are asking:
Should I take advantage of the uncertainty to send money to the UK?
The shock referendum result in June 2016 smashed the pound, which fell between 15 and 20 per cent against a basket of currencies. This was great news for UAE residents’ US dollar-linked AED dirhams, as their remittances were suddenly worth far more.
This year sterling has been the best performing major global currency, as hopes rose of a deal. At time of writing it is up 3.33 per cent against the US dollar year-to-date and 5.41 per cent against the euro.
Currency markets see a soft Brexit as positive for sterling, while a no-deal departure could be brutal. The pound currently trades at $1.318 but Gaurav Kashyap, head of futures at EGM in Dubai, says it could crash below $1.24 on a hard Brexit.
“However, a favourable development such as another Brexit extension, a negotiated deal for a softer Brexit or even a second referendum could see it rise above $1.338,” says Mr Kashyap.
Investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both forecast dramatic climbs for sterling this year, provided we get a soft Brexit. If they’re right, your opportunity to send money to the UK at great rates may already have passed — but nobody knows for sure.
Little and often is probably the best way to make currency transfers at the moment, taking advantage of any favourable movements.
Will a no-deal Brexit crash the housing market?
Once an outcome is certain and confidence is restored, we will see an upswing in buyers and sellers.
Many UAE expats and residents either own property in the UK or are considering buying property there. A hard Brexit could be a threat for existing owners but an opportunity for new buyers.
So far, the UK property market has held up surprisingly well, but now there are signs of strain. Prices across England fell for the first time in seven years in the first quarter of 2019, a year-on-year drop of 0.7 per cent, according to new figures from mortgage lender Nationwide. The fall is a much greater 3.8 per cent in London, where prices have now fallen for seven consecutive quarters.
Brexit has scared off foreign buyers but it isn't the only culprit — increased stamp duty on second homes has played a part, while London property has also become dizzyingly expensive.
A hard Brexit could be your opportunity to snap up the central London bolthole of your dreams at a bargain price. The Bank of England's worst-case scenario suggests house prices could fall by a third over three years, and the pound is likely to crash as well, allowing dollar and dirham earners to scoop up property on the cheap.
However, if there is a Brexit fix, prices could quickly rebound. Gary Barker, chief executive of UK property technology company Reapit, says: “Once an outcome is certain and confidence is restored, we will see an upswing in buyers and sellers."
North London estate agent Jeremy Leaf is similarly optimistic: “If we get a deal, pent-up demand for British property will be released.”
Like everything else, the British property market is hanging in the balance.
Should I sell my UK shares and funds?
London’s FTSE 100 index crashed in the immediate aftermath of the shock EU referendum result, only to recover within hours.
That was due to the crash in the pound. Top UK companies generate three quarters of their revenues overseas, and these were suddenly worth more when converted back into weaker sterling.
However, UK shares have underperformed since then, and could crash on a disruptive no-deal.
Aruna Karunathilake, portfolio manager at the Fidelity UK Select Fund, says it is time to be brave. “The UK is currently a hunting ground for wonderful businesses at wonderful prices.”
This happens when the market confuses short-term uncertainty with the long-term prospects of a business. “It is happening right now with domestic UK companies given Brexit uncertainty.”
Mr Karunathilake picks out Lloyds Banking Group, car-buying platform AutoTrader and Dominos Pizza Group as top stock opportunities.
He urges investors to follow Warren Buffett’s advice to be ‘greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy’.
“I would argue we are now close to the point of maximum fear,” he says.
A low-cost exchange traded fund such as iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF or the SPDR FTSE 100 UK All Share UCITS ETF is the simplest way to buy into a potential UK recovery.
Stuart Ritchie, director of wealth advice at AES International in Dubai, says there is no need to panic if you have a globally diversified portfolio. “The UK only represents around 6 per cent of global market capitalisation and our clients' exposure to UK equites is very low.”
George Lagarias, chief economist at international tax specialists Mazars, which has offices in Dubai, says Brexit is a mess but investors face bigger worries. “Brexit isn't even a top three risk, given the precipitous slowdown of Europe, China’s tumultuous economic transition and Washington’s political gridlock.”
What impact would Brexit have on my ability to claim my UK state pension overseas?
The UK will continue to pay accrued state pension wherever you live in the world, although what you get depends on your choice of retirement destination.
Currently, Britons who retire in the EU will see their state pension uprated every year, in line with UK increases. This also applies in countries where the UK has struck reciprocal social security agreements, including the US, Jamaica and Turkey.
There are some surprising exceptions. For example, an estimated 500,000 expat pensioners in Canada, South Africa, New Zealand and Australia have had their pension income frozen at the point they left the UK or started collecting it, despite paying their National Insurance contributions just like everyone else. The same happens in the UAE.
This could potentially happen to Britons retiring in, say, Spain or France, unless there is a reciprocal deal.
Mr Ritchie at AES says the only honest answer is: nobody knows what will happen at the moment. “We don’t expect major changes to pension legislation, but this hasn’t been confirmed by the British Government.”
Will I continue to receive UK personal and company pensions as before?
Currently, if you retire anywhere in the EU, British pension and investment companies can pay out wherever you live under so-called “passporting" arrangements.
This could be threatened by a no-deal Brexit, although the UK Government has committed to granting temporary permission to avoid contracts falling into default overnight.
The UK and EU are keen to agree an ongoing regime but like so many things, that is part of the negotiation process. Once again, uncertainty rules.
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Brief scoreline:
Wales 1
James 5'
Slovakia 0
Man of the Match: Dan James (Wales)
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
Credits
Produced by: Colour Yellow Productions and Eros Now
Director: Mudassar Aziz
Cast: Sonakshi Sinha, Jimmy Sheirgill, Jassi Gill, Piyush Mishra, Diana Penty, Aparshakti Khurrana
Star rating: 2.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Heather, the Totality
Matthew Weiner,
Canongate
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
THE BIO:
Favourite holiday destination: Thailand. I go every year and I’m obsessed with the fitness camps there.
Favourite book: Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. It’s an amazing story about barefoot running.
Favourite film: A League of their Own. I used to love watching it in my granny’s house when I was seven.
Personal motto: Believe it and you can achieve it.
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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If you go
The Flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Johannesburg from Dubai and Abu Dhabi respectively. Economy return tickets cost from Dh2,650, including taxes.
The trip
Worldwide Motorhoming Holidays (worldwidemotorhomingholidays.co.uk) operates fly-drive motorhome holidays in eight destinations, including South Africa. Its 14-day Kruger and the Battlefields itinerary starts from Dh17,500, including campgrounds, excursions, unit hire and flights. Bobo Campers has a range of RVs for hire, including the 4-berth Discoverer 4 from Dh600 per day.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Meydan race card
6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh125,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,200m
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh170,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 (D)1,200m
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV
Normal People
Sally Rooney, Faber & Faber
The lowdown
Bohemian Rhapsody
Director: Bryan Singer
Starring: Rami Malek, Lucy Boynton, Gwilym Lee
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
South Africa 66 (Tries: De Allende, Nkosi, Reinach (3), Gelant, Steyn, Brits, Willemse; Cons: Jantjies 8)
Canada 7 (Tries: Heaton; Cons: Nelson)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
What is a calorie?
A food calorie, or kilocalorie, is a measure of nutritional energy generated from what is consumed.
One calorie, is the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1°C.
A kilocalorie represents a 1,000 true calories of energy.
Energy density figures are often quoted as calories per serving, with one gram of fat in food containing nine calories, and a gram of protein or carbohydrate providing about four.
Alcohol contains about seven calories a gram.
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
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TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Votes
Total votes: 1.8 million
Ashraf Ghani: 923,592 votes
Abdullah Abdullah: 720,841 votes
Profile box
Founders: Michele Ferrario, Nino Ulsamer and Freddy Lim
Started: established in 2016 and launched in July 2017
Based: Singapore, with offices in the UAE, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand
Sector: FinTech, wealth management
Initial investment: $500,000 in seed round 1 in 2016; $2.2m in seed round 2 in 2017; $5m in series A round in 2018; $12m in series B round in 2019; $16m in series C round in 2020 and $25m in series D round in 2021
Current staff: more than 160 employees
Stage: series D
Investors: EightRoads Ventures, Square Peg Capital, Sequoia Capital India
Prop idols
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
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Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
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Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
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Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets