A souring mood will mean Khalid Al Falih, the Saudi oil minister, above, will be under pressure to reach a deal in Algiers. Joe Klamar / AFP
A souring mood will mean Khalid Al Falih, the Saudi oil minister, above, will be under pressure to reach a deal in Algiers. Joe Klamar / AFP
A souring mood will mean Khalid Al Falih, the Saudi oil minister, above, will be under pressure to reach a deal in Algiers. Joe Klamar / AFP
A souring mood will mean Khalid Al Falih, the Saudi oil minister, above, will be under pressure to reach a deal in Algiers. Joe Klamar / AFP

Stalling oil market puts onus back on Saudi Arabia


  • English
  • Arabic

The stalling oil market has put the onus back on Saudi Arabia two weeks ahead of a planned informal meeting of Opec oil ministers in Algeria.

Two years into the kingdom’s laissez-faire policy, which has shown some signs of success, sombre forecasts in the past week from Opec and the International Energy Agency predicting a prolonged oil glut has put renewed pressure on Saudi Arabia and its Arabian Gulf allies to reconsider their position.

Oil prices dropped by about 7 per cent in the past week, from a close of about US$50 per barrel on September 8 to about $46.40 late yesterday after the gloomy reports.

The big concern voiced by Opec in its monthly assessment was that supply outside its membership was on the rise again, pointing particularly to the prospect of the long-delayed Kashagan project in Kazakhstan – “the world’s costliest oilfield”, as it is often described – which Opec estimated might add as much as 360,000 barrels per day to world output next year.

The IEA followed with a prediction of slowing demand growth, particularly in China and India, and an echo of Opec’s concern that oversupply would continue well into next year.

Those reports were quickly followed by bearish comments from some analysts, particularly Jeffery Currie, the widely followed head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest commodities trading banks.

Mr Currie, who had said in March that $40 per barrel was probably a “self-defeating” price in that it would encourage higher-cost supply back on to the market, said on Tuesday that he expects oil to trade to be in the $45 to $50 range for the next 12 months.

Although predictions by banks or other institutions are rarely on the money, the souring mood will mean that Khalid Al Falih, the Saudi oil minister, will be under increased pressure in Algiers later this month to reach some kind of deal, even if there is little room for manoeuvre within the group.

“If a freeze deal is genuinely agreed upon, countries where output has fallen due to unplanned outages and sabotages – [Libya and Nigeria, for example] – may be given a ceiling of pre-disruption levels, [so that] the volume at which the so-called freeze is agreed upon could be even higher than current Opec production,” said Amrita Sen, the chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects.

This would probably be seen as bearish at first, but “this may be a baby step towards potentially more supportive developments down the line, even though plenty of uncertainties remain”, she said.

The dilemma for Saudi Arabia is that its policy has been working, albeit slowly.

Since prices collapsed from $115 per barrel in mid-2014 to below $30 in January, they have been fairly steady in the mid-$40s. Volatility has also halved since the start of the year, although it has been drifting higher in the past month.

The long game that Saudi Arabia’s oil leaders have been playing – with the full support of the UAE and Kuwait – is to keep backing their low-cost production and let higher cost output act as swing production.

The irony of the Kashagan project is that it is typical of the ­giant money-losing schemes that have been cancelled in the past year. At $50 billion, the project is five times over budget and even now the head of the operating company and Kazakhstan’s energy minister are at odds over its production schedule. The more optimistic outlook would have it starting next month and producing an average of 37,000 bpd in the fourth quarter.

Italy’s Eni, which is the lead foreign company on the project, has forecast output to reach 360,000 bpd by the middle of next year. Its previous attempt at ramping up in 2013 quickly came to a halt because of technical problems.

The IEA, in a separate report this week, pointed to the huge cuts in investment in oil projects as oil prices slumped.

The share of national oil companies in overall investment spending has grown to a record 44 per cent because of the investment slump in places like offshore Africa and the Americas, it said.

“After a cut of 19 per cent in 2015, [the big international oil companies] have announced a further reduction of aggregate upstream spending of 21 per cent in 2016,” the IEA noted.

“Only a few companies, especially in the Middle East, are maintaining upstream investment levels, while a smaller number, including Russia’s Rosneft and Algeria’s Sonatrach, intend to increase spending, albeit in local cur­rency terms.”

The Saudi long game is working. It is now a question of whether it decides to adjust short-term tactics.

amcauley@thenational.ae

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Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.

Director: Laxman Utekar

Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna

Rating: 1/5

Our legal columnist

Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

Our legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants

SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
WOMAN AND CHILD

Director: Saeed Roustaee

Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi

Rating: 4/5

Fixtures
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWednesday%2C%20April%203%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EArsenal%20v%20Luton%20Town%2C%2010.30pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EManchester%20City%20v%20Aston%20Villa%2C%2011.15pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EThursday%2C%20April%204%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELiverpool%20v%20Sheffield%20United%2C%2010.30pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WHAT%20IS%20THE%20LICENSING%20PROCESS%20FOR%20VARA%3F
%3Cp%3EVara%20will%20cater%20to%20three%20categories%20of%20companies%20in%20Dubai%20(except%20the%20DIFC)%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECategory%20A%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Minimum%20viable%20product%20(MVP)%20applicants%20that%20are%20currently%20in%20the%20process%20of%20securing%20an%20MVP%20licence%3A%20This%20is%20a%20three-stage%20process%20starting%20with%20%5B1%5D%20a%20provisional%20permit%2C%20graduating%20to%20%5B2%5D%20preparatory%20licence%20and%20concluding%20with%20%5B3%5D%20operational%20licence.%20Applicants%20that%20are%20already%20in%20the%20MVP%20process%20will%20be%20advised%20by%20Vara%20to%20either%20continue%20within%20the%20MVP%20framework%20or%20be%20transitioned%20to%20the%20full%20market%20product%20licensing%20process.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECategory%20B%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Existing%20legacy%20virtual%20asset%20service%20providers%20prior%20to%20February%207%2C%202023%2C%20which%20are%20required%20to%20come%20under%20Vara%20supervision.%20All%20operating%20service%20proviers%20in%20Dubai%20(excluding%20the%20DIFC)%20fall%20under%20Vara%E2%80%99s%20supervision.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECategory%20C%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20New%20applicants%20seeking%20a%20Vara%20licence%20or%20existing%20applicants%20adding%20new%20activities.%20All%20applicants%20that%20do%20not%20fall%20under%20Category%20A%20or%20B%20can%20begin%20the%20application%20process%20through%20their%20current%20or%20prospective%20commercial%20licensor%20%E2%80%94%20the%20DET%20or%20Free%20Zone%20Authority%20%E2%80%94%20or%20directly%20through%20Vara%20in%20the%20instance%20that%20they%20have%20yet%20to%20determine%20the%20commercial%20operating%20zone%20in%20Dubai.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
IF YOU GO

The flights

FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.

The tours

English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people. 

The hotels

Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.

St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.

 

The specs

Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder

Transmission: 7-speed auto

0-100kmh 2.3 seconds

0-200kmh 5.5 seconds

0-300kmh 11.6 seconds

Power: 1500hp

Torque: 1600Nm

Price: Dh13,400,000

On sale: now

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Essentials

The flights

Etihad (etihad.ae) and flydubai (flydubai.com) fly direct to Baku three times a week from Dh1,250 return, including taxes. 
 

The stay

A seven-night “Fundamental Detox” programme at the Chenot Palace (chenotpalace.com/en) costs from €3,000 (Dh13,197) per person, including taxes, accommodation, 3 medical consultations, 2 nutritional consultations, a detox diet, a body composition analysis, a bio-energetic check-up, four Chenot bio-energetic treatments, six Chenot energetic massages, six hydro-aromatherapy treatments, six phyto-mud treatments, six hydro-jet treatments and access to the gym, indoor pool, sauna and steam room. Additional tests and treatments cost extra.

While you're here

Michael Young: Where is Lebanon headed?

Kareem Shaheen: I owe everything to Beirut

Raghida Dergham: We have to bounce back

Signs%20of%20%20%20%20%20%20%20heat%20stroke
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20loss%20of%20sodium%20chloride%20in%20our%20sweat%20can%20lead%20to%20confusion%20and%20an%20altered%20mental%20status%20and%20slurred%20speech%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBody%20temperature%20above%2039%C2%B0C%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHot%2C%20dry%20and%20red%20or%20damp%20skin%20can%20indicate%20heatstroke%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EA%20faster%20pulse%20than%20usual%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDizziness%2C%20nausea%20and%20headaches%20are%20also%20signs%20of%20overheating%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIn%20extreme%20cases%2C%20victims%20can%20lose%20consciousness%20and%20require%20immediate%20medical%20attention%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Volvo ES90 Specs

Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)

Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp

Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm

On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region

Price: Exact regional pricing TBA

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

MATCH INFO

Who: UAE v USA
What: first T20 international
When: Friday, 2pm
Where: ICC Academy in Dubai

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sav%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Purvi%20Munot%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%20as%20of%20March%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Five expert hiking tips
    Always check the weather forecast before setting off Make sure you have plenty of water Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon Wear appropriate clothing and footwear Take your litter home with you
UK-EU trade at a glance

EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years

Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products

Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries

Smoother border management with use of e-gates

Cutting red tape on import and export of food

Iftar programme at the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding

Established in 1998, the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding was created with a vision to teach residents about the traditions and customs of the UAE. Its motto is ‘open doors, open minds’. All year-round, visitors can sign up for a traditional Emirati breakfast, lunch or dinner meal, as well as a range of walking tours, including ones to sites such as the Jumeirah Mosque or Al Fahidi Historical Neighbourhood.

Every year during Ramadan, an iftar programme is rolled out. This allows guests to break their fast with the centre’s presenters, visit a nearby mosque and observe their guides while they pray. These events last for about two hours and are open to the public, or can be booked for a private event.

Until the end of Ramadan, the iftar events take place from 7pm until 9pm, from Saturday to Thursday. Advanced booking is required.

For more details, email openminds@cultures.ae or visit www.cultures.ae

 

Sarfira

Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad

Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal 

Rating: 2/5

In numbers: China in Dubai

The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000

Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000

Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent

SERIE A FIXTURES

Saturday (UAE kick-off times)

Atalanta v Juventus (6pm)

AC Milan v Napoli (9pm)

Torino v Inter Milan (11.45pm)

Sunday

Bologna v Parma (3.30pm)

Sassuolo v Lazio (6pm)

Roma v Brescia (6pm)

Verona v Fiorentina (6pm)

Sampdoria v Udinese (9pm)

Lecce v Cagliari (11.45pm)

Monday

SPAL v Genoa (11.45pm)

House-hunting

Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove

  1. Edinburgh, Scotland 
  2. Westminster, London 
  3. Camden, London 
  4. Glasgow, Scotland 
  5. Islington, London 
  6. Kensington and Chelsea, London 
  7. Highlands, Scotland 
  8. Argyll and Bute, Scotland 
  9. Fife, Scotland 
  10. Tower Hamlets, London 

 

If you go

The Flights

Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Johannesburg from Dubai and Abu Dhabi respectively. Economy return tickets cost from Dh2,650, including taxes.

The trip

Worldwide Motorhoming Holidays (worldwidemotorhomingholidays.co.uk) operates fly-drive motorhome holidays in eight destinations, including South Africa. Its 14-day Kruger and the Battlefields itinerary starts from Dh17,500, including campgrounds, excursions, unit hire and flights. Bobo Campers has a range of RVs for hire, including the 4-berth Discoverer 4 from Dh600 per day.

Tips%20for%20holiday%20homeowners
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20several%20factors%20for%20landlords%20to%20consider%20when%20preparing%20to%20establish%20a%20holiday%20home%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3ERevenue%20potential%20of%20the%20unit%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20location%2C%20view%20and%20size%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%3A%20furnished%20or%20unfurnished.%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Is%20the%20design%20up%20to%20standard%2C%20while%20being%20catchy%20at%20the%20same%20time%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20model%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20will%20it%20be%20managed%20by%20a%20professional%20operator%20or%20directly%20by%20the%20owner%2C%20how%20often%20does%20the%20owner%20wants%20to%20use%20it%20for%20personal%20reasons%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuality%20of%20the%20operator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20guest%20reviews%2C%20customer%20experience%20management%2C%20application%20of%20technology%2C%20average%20utilisation%2C%20scope%20of%20services%20rendered%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Adam%20Nowak%2C%20managing%20director%20of%20Ultimate%20Stay%20Vacation%20Homes%20Rental%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A