Dividends are the great unsung heroes of equity investing. Too many investors fail to recognise their merit, as they pin their hopes on building wealth from rising share prices instead.
Yet, over the long term, dividends will generate a huge chunk of your overall investment returns. Like all unsung heroes, you only miss them when they’re gone.
Investors are missing them now, as the Covid-19 pandemic has forced global companies to axe dividends totalling more than $100 billion (Dh367.3bn). They will be back, but you might have to be patient.
Dividends are the regular payments companies make as a reward for holding their stock, paid either quarterly, half yearly or annually.
Shareholder payouts are not guaranteed but most companies look to increase theirs every year, which gives investors a rising income over time.
Ideally, you should reinvest your dividends back into your portfolio while working to build your wealth, but you can draw them later as income when you stop working.
Figures from fund manager Schroders shows just how valuable dividends can be. Over the 20 years to December 31, 2019, the UK’s FTSE 100 index rose by just over 600 points to 7,542, a rise of just 8.8 per cent.
If you had reinvested all your dividends for growth, your total return would have been 122 per cent, an astonishing difference.
The impact is less dramatic in the US, where dividends have been lower and capital growth higher, but you still can’t ignore them.
A temporary dividend halt does not change the fundamental value of a company, though it can affect short-term sentiment
While global markets have recovered most of their losses from the stock market crash in March, dividends are still well down.
Total global payouts plunged 22 per cent to $382.2bn in the second quarter, down $108.1bn on the same quarter last year, according to the Janus Henderson Global Dividends Index.
More than a quarter of dividend-paying companies either cut payouts or cancelled them outright, in a bid to save cash and protect their balance sheets during the fastest recession in history.
Europe and the UK were the worst affected regions, where underlying payouts fell by two fifths, with Asia and Australia also hit hard. Japan, the US and Canada proved relatively resilient, the figures show.
Healthcare and communications companies were least likely to cut their dividends, while companies in the financial services and consumer discretionary sectors were most at risk.
There could be more pain to come. Janus Henderson’s worst-case scenario is for headline payouts to drop 23 per cent across 2020 to $1.10 trillion, about $328bn less than last year.
While this makes it harder for you to build the wealth you need for a comfortable retirement, all is not lost.
Janus Henderson’s investment director for global equity income, Jane Shoemake, says lower payout ratios in North America have made it easier for companies to maintain dividends, with many preparing to cut back on share buybacks instead.
European dividends should rebound next year, she says, but the UK recovery will be slower. “Several companies, not least oil giants BP and Royal Dutch Shell, have taken the opportunity to reset their payouts at a lower level.”
Ms Shoemake says investors should still receive more than $1tn of dividends both this year and next, despite the cuts. “A temporary dividend halt does not change the fundamental value of a company, though it can affect short-term sentiment.”
Separate research from online wealth platform AJ Bell shows that 31 FTSE 100 companies have slashed or suspended their payouts this year, although 26 have either stood by theirs, or in some cases, increased them.
Big banks Barclays, HSBC and Lloyds were effectively ordered to stop their payouts by the UK government, while mining giants Glencore, BHP Group and Anglo American all cut theirs.
In the US, bank Wells Fargo, Estee Lauder, Gap, cruise operator Carnival, cinema firm AMC Entertainment, oilfield services giant Schlumberger, aircraft maker Boeing, hotel chain Marriott International and Delta Air Lines were among those to cut dividends.
In Europe, dividends fell by 45 per cent, with the big banks suspending payouts, including ING Group, Unicredit and ABN AMRO.
Perhaps we should be more surprised that so many companies continue to pay dividends, including tech giant IBM, wireless mobile specialist AT&T and PepsiCo in the US.
UK pharmaceutical companies AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline, household goods giant Unilever, mining firm Rio Tinto and British American Tobacco all stuck by their payouts.
You can get decent dividend yields but don't just chase the yield
Buying individual company stocks is always risky and most investors spread the risk with a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF), which gives them a balanced portfolio containing dozens of companies.
The popular SPDR S&P US Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF invests in companies on the US S&P 500 that have increased their dividends every year for at least 20 years. It yielded 2.47 per cent at the end of July, with charges totalling 0.35 per cent a year.
Similarly, SPDR S&P Euro Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF targets European stocks that have either increased or held payouts stable for at least 10 years. It yields 3.7 per cent, with charges of 0.30 per cent.
SPDR S&P UK Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF yields 4.93 per cent, reflecting more generous UK dividend policies. For example, its top holding, insurer Phoenix Group Holdings, now yields 6.75 per cent, while British American Tobacco yields an incredible 8.12 per cent.
Christopher Davies, chartered financial planner at The Fry Group, says investors should not just focus on the headline yield, as a generous dividend is often a sign of a company in trouble.
Yields are calculated by dividing the dividend per share by the share price. So, if the company pays $5 per share and its stock trades at $100, the yield is 5 per cent.
If the company hits trouble and its share price crashes to $50, the yield will fly to 10 per cent. A double-digit yield looks tempting, but is risky and rarely sustainable.
Mr Davies says many companies continue to stand by their dividends even when they can’t afford it to keep investors happy.
One way of checking whether the dividend is sustainable is to look at how well it is covered by earnings. Ideally, a dividend should be covered twice, although many investors are happy to accept a lower cover of about 1.5. Once it falls below one, the company is effectively borrowing money to reward shareholders.
Mr Davies says: “You can get decent dividend yields but don’t just chase the yield.”
As governments and central banks battle to stimulate the economy, Mr Davies says the most sustainable dividends can be found in the infrastructure sector, as well as consumer staples, where demand is more steady. “Companies with high cash reserves are also most likely to sustain shareholder payouts.”
He recommends diversifying your portfolio across a range of stocks and other asset classes to protect yourself against any further cuts.
Stuart Ritchie, director of wealth advice at AES International, says it's best not to abandon a stock simply because it has dropped its dividend. “If this helps to preserve financial stability, you should support the company’s management.”
Companies are not immune to going bankrupt and dividends are not guaranteed
Last year, indebted telecoms giant Vodafone Group slashed its dividend by 40 per cent, but its share price actually rose as investors felt the new 5 per cent yield was more sustainable.
While dividends are a great source of income, Mr Ritchie says retirees should not rely on them altogether. “Companies are not immune to going bankrupt and dividends are not guaranteed.”
Like all unsung heroes, dividends can go through tough times. Slowly, though, they are fighting their way back, with seven FTSE 100 companies already restoring theirs. Soon, it may be time to start singing their praises again.
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She Graduated from the American University of Sharjah in 2015 and is currently working on her Masters in Communication from the University of Sharjah.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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How Filipinos in the UAE invest
A recent survey of 10,000 Filipino expatriates in the UAE found that 82 per cent have plans to invest, primarily in property. This is significantly higher than the 2014 poll showing only two out of 10 Filipinos planned to invest.
Fifty-five percent said they plan to invest in property, according to the poll conducted by the New Perspective Media Group, organiser of the Philippine Property and Investment Exhibition. Acquiring a franchised business or starting up a small business was preferred by 25 per cent and 15 per cent said they will invest in mutual funds. The rest said they are keen to invest in insurance (3 per cent) and gold (2 per cent).
Of the 5,500 respondents who preferred property as their primary investment, 54 per cent said they plan to make the purchase within the next year. Manila was the top location, preferred by 53 per cent.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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