Volatility has remained high in financial markets throughout this month.
US Consumer Price Index data showed last week that overall inflation in the US ticked 7.5 per cent higher in January compared with a year ago.
The hot inflation print spooked markets, with equities selling off and the US dollar catching strong bids last Thursday and Friday.
This sparked rumours that the US Federal Reserve Board may announce a half percentage point move as early as March. However, at the time of writing, the Fed had not announced an emergency increase and is instead maintaining its wait-and-watch stance.
After Thursday’s news, the S&P 500 index continues to trade heavily — at the time of writing, it was trading 2.2 per cent lower on the month. The tech-heavy Nasdaq reported large losses on the month, trading 5.3 per cent lower.
In my previous column, I said that it was unclear if markets had found their bottom. My view remains unchanged. Along with the continuing US inflation theme, developing tension around Ukraine will also continue to rile market sentiment.
At the weekend, US President Joe Biden told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that the “West would respond decisively to any invasion of Ukraine” and since then, the US and UK have called on their citizens to leave the country.
While we hope this story calms down, keep an eye out for any escalating rhetoric, which will cause more downsides in riskier assets.
Fundamentally, gold has benefited from hotter-than-expected inflation and has been supported by the continuing Ukrainian tension
Gaurav Kashyap,
head of futures at EGM Futures
The US dollar has been catching bids as a result of these themes. The Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) EUR-USD futures contract is still trading higher, although 1.6 per cent lower than the 1.15 highs on February 10. I expect the currency pair to find strong support at 1.1130 with upsides capped at 1.15 technically.
It was a similar story for GBP-USD on the DGCX; after hitting highs above 1.36, the cable finds itself consolidating above 1.35 levels. The pair should continue to find good buying support at 1.32 levels with upsides capped at 1.3750 this month.
Gold will be an interesting commodity to watch in the weeks ahead. The precious metal broke through $1,850 levels and is on its way to test a three-month high at $1,865.
Fundamentally, gold has benefited from hotter-than-expected inflation and has been supported by the continuing Ukraine tension. Following $1,865, I expect gold to test June 2021 highs of $1,917 next month.
Looking ahead to the rest of this month, I am keeping an eye out for US gross domestic product data due on February 24. Quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to come in at 7 per cent during the fourth quarter, up from 6.9 per cent during the same period in 2021.
ISM data scheduled for March 1 will offer a good gauge on the current state of manufacturing activity in the US, before we turn to February’s non-farm payrolls job report due on March 4.
Across the pond, manufacturing and services PMI for the eurozone is due on February 21, while inflation data is scheduled for February 23. Inflation in the eurozone is expected to have slowed to 5 per cent in January from 5.1 per cent during the same period a year ago.
It might be vigilant to adopt a wait-and-watch approach to financial markets in the weeks ahead — particularly for those looking for intraday opportunities.
The current downward trend could provide opportunities for those who have a longer-term view of stocks and need to bring down their average entry prices in certain equities.
However, I don’t think we have seen the end of this current downward channel. Expect volatility to remain rife in the weeks ahead.
Gaurav Kashyap is head of futures at EGM Futures. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of EGM Futures
Results
Female 49kg: Mayssa Bastos (BRA) bt Thamires Aquino (BRA); points 0-0 (advantage points points 1-0).
Female 55kg: Bianca Basilio (BRA) bt Amal Amjahid (BEL); points 4-2.
Female 62kg: Beatriz Mesquita (BRA) v Ffion Davies (GBR); 10-2.
Female 70kg: Thamara Silva (BRA) bt Alessandra Moss (AUS); submission.
Female 90kg: Gabreili Passanha (BRA) bt Claire-France Thevenon (FRA); submission.
Male 56kg: Hiago George (BRA) bt Carlos Alberto da Silva (BRA); 2-2 (2-0)
Male 62kg: Gabriel de Sousa (BRA) bt Joao Miyao (BRA); 2-2 (2-1)
Male 69kg: Paulo Miyao (BRA) bt Isaac Doederlein (USA); 2-2 (2-2) Ref decision.
Male 77kg: Tommy Langarkar (NOR) by Oliver Lovell (GBR); submission.
Male 85kg: Rudson Mateus Teles (BRA) bt Faisal Al Ketbi (UAE); 2-2 (1-1) Ref decision.
Male 94kg: Kaynan Duarte (BRA) bt Adam Wardzinski (POL); submission.
Male 110kg: Joao Rocha (BRA) bt Yahia Mansoor Al Hammadi (UAE); submission.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Manchester City 2 (Sterling 22', De Bruyne 82')
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The advice provided in our columns does not constitute legal advice and is provided for information only. Readers are encouraged to seek independent legal advice.
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Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
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July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
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