Egypt's stock exchange plummeted after a fresh bout of violence rocked Cairo's streets yesterday, wiping 2.4 billion Egyptian pounds (Dh1.46bn) from the value of local stocks.
The main EGX30 Index of Egyptian stocks fell 3.4 per cent to 3,782.74 as protesters clashed with security forces for the third consecutive day, in a round of violence during which 10 people were killed.
The recurrent threat of street violence to market trading has now become a normal part of doing business, said Mohamed Seddiek, the head of research at Prime Securities.
"Whenever you have violence over the weekend, you find that the trading session is extremely hit," he said. "If it continues like this, I don't think the supreme council of the armed forces can handle all the pressure for too long."
The index has shed 47 per cent of its value this year as investors take flight from Egypt following the revolution which overthrew the government of president Hosni Mubarak in February.
Shares in Commercial International Bank in Egypt fell 4.9 per cent to 20.59 pounds each.
Orascom Construction Industries, the country's biggest builder, lost 3.7 per cent to 204.08 pounds, while Telecom Egypt sank 3.6 per cent to 13.45 pounds.
The sell-off came as the Egyptian finance ministry failed to meet a fundraising target in a bond issuance, falling 1.19bn short of its target of 3.5bn pounds.
Egypt's government's cash reserves have dwindled in the months following the revolution.
The central bank of Egypt reported that net international reserves had fallen by US$15.9bn (Dh58.4bn) from the start of the year to $20.1bn at the end of last month.
The Egyptian government met yesterday to discuss how to reduce a deficit of about 10 per cent of GDP, Bloomberg News reported.
Initial government estimates for Egypt's budget had proved overly optimistic, said Jean-Michel Saliba, an economist for the Middle East and North Africa at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
"The big news is whether they will be able to implement some austerity measures," he told Bloomberg News.
Moody's Investors Service, the ratings agency, warned last week that the political uncertainty over Egypt was a "credit negative" for the country.
"Continued political instability and the transitional role of the new government suggest that financial stability and investor confidence will remain elusive," Mathias Angonin, an associate analyst in Moody's sovereign rating group, wrote in a research report.
"Egypt's external payments position continues to deteriorate in the post-revolution era," the report added.
"The economic downturn in Europe is compounding pressure on Egypt's balance of payments from domestic political turmoil."
ghunter@thenational.ae
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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