Hopes that a rout in Treasuries has run its course are tempting some investors back into the US stock market after a months-long sell-off.
The relationship between stocks and bonds has been a tight one in recent months, with equities falling as Treasury yields climbed to 16-year highs. Higher yields offer investment competition to stocks while also raising the cost of capital for companies and households.
For much of the last week, however, that dynamic has reversed, following news of smaller-than-expected US government borrowing and signs that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate rise cycle.
Yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, are down about 35 basis points from 16-year highs hit in October. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 surged 5.9 per cent in the past week, its biggest gain since November 2022. The index is off about 5 per cent from its July peak, although up nearly 14 per cent year-to-date.
“The stability in rates is helping other asset classes find a footing,” said Jason Draho, head of asset allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. “If equities move higher you may find investors starting to feel as if they need to chase performance through the end of the year.”
Mr Draho expects the S&P 500 to trade between 4,200 and 4,600 until investors determine whether the economy will be able to avoid a recession. The index was recently around 4,365.
Other factors may also be working in stocks’ favour. Exposure to equities among active money managers stands to close its lowest level since October 2022, according to an index compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers – a compelling sign for contrarian investors who seek to buy when pessimism rises.
Aggregate equity positioning tracked by Deutsche Bank fell to a five-month low earlier in the week, the firm's strategists said in a note on Friday, helping to fuel a powerful bounce when investors rushed back into the market.
At the same time, the last two months of the year have tended to be a strong stretch for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising an average of 3 per cent, according to data from CFRA Research. The best two weeks of the year for the index, during which it has risen an average of 2.2 per cent – kicked off on October 22, according to data from Carson Investment Research.
“We had an extremely oversold market in the midst of a strong economy, and the Fed coming out a little more dovish was the kindling we needed for a rally,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Investment Research, who believes the current rebound in stocks will take them past their July high.
Bullish sentiment received another boost on Friday from US employment data, which showed a slight gain in the unemployment rate and smallest wage increase in two-and-a-half years, suggesting that the labour market is cooling, bolstering the case for the Fed to stay its hand. The S&P 500 closed up 0.9 per cent on the day.
Of course, plenty of investors remain hesitant to return to stocks just yet. Technology bellwether Apple on Thursday was the latest of the market's technology and growth stocks to offer an underwhelming outlook.
The iPhone maker gave a holiday sales forecast that was below Wall Street estimates. At least 14 analysts cut their price targets for the stock, according to LSEG data.
Still, analysts expect earnings growth of 5.7 per cent for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter, with more than 81 per cent of the 403 companies in the benchmark index that have reported profits so far having beaten estimates, according to LSEG data.
At the same time, betting on reversals in Treasuries has been a losing proposition for most of the year, during which rebounds in the US government bond market have been followed by deeper sell-offs. The 10-year Treasury yield is up about 125 basis points from its low for the year.
Some investors also worry that the so-called Goldilocks economy suggested by Friday's jobs report may not last. Greg Wilensky, head of US fixed income at Janus Henderson Investors, believes that while signs of softer than expected growth are boosting stocks and bonds for now, they may eventually stir recession worries.
“Eventually 'good' moderation may turn into a debate of whether the economy and labour markets are weakening too much,” he said.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The Gentlemen
Director: Guy Ritchie
Stars: Colin Farrell, Hugh Grant
Three out of five stars
UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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Bib%20Gourmand%20restaurants
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Arsenal's pre-season fixtures
Thursday Beat Sydney 2-0 in Sydney
Saturday v Western Sydney Wanderers in Sydney
Wednesday v Bayern Munich in Shanghai
July 22 v Chelsea in Beijing
July 29 v Benfica in London
July 30 v Sevilla in London
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
FIXTURES
Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan
The top two teams qualify for the World Cup
Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.
Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place play-off
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
Dr Graham's three goals
Short term
Establish logistics and systems needed to globally deploy vaccines
Intermediate term
Build biomedical workforces in low- and middle-income nations
Long term
A prototype pathogen approach for pandemic preparedness
Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- Margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars
- Energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- Infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes
- Many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts
Inside%20Out%202
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The biog
Hobbies: Writing and running
Favourite sport: beach volleyball
Favourite holiday destinations: Turkey and Puerto Rico
How to come clean about financial infidelity
- Be honest and transparent: It is always better to own up than be found out. Tell your partner everything they want to know. Show remorse. Inform them of the extent of the situation so they know what they are dealing with.
- Work on yourself: Be honest with yourself and your partner and figure out why you did it. Don’t be ashamed to ask for professional help.
- Give it time: Like any breach of trust, it requires time to rebuild. So be consistent, communicate often and be patient with your partner and yourself.
- Discuss your financial situation regularly: Ensure your spouse is involved in financial matters and decisions. Your ability to consistently follow through with what you say you are going to do when it comes to money can make all the difference in your partner’s willingness to trust you again.
- Work on a plan to resolve the problem together: If there is a lot of debt, for example, create a budget and financial plan together and ensure your partner is fully informed, involved and supported.
Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Racecard
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The five pillars of Islam
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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12%20restaurants%20opening%20at%20the%20hotel%20this%20month
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UAE tour of the Netherlands
UAE squad: Rohan Mustafa (captain), Shaiman Anwar, Ghulam Shabber, Mohammed Qasim, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Chirag Suri, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Mohammed Naveed, Amjad Javed, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Fixtures: Monday, first 50-over match; Wednesday, second 50-over match; Thursday, third 50-over match