Inflation in India is set to soar above 8 per cent by the end of the year, economists predict.
Morgan Stanley has issued a forecast that wholesale price index inflation could hit 8.2 per cent next month, while others are predicting that it could rise even further.
This comes despite an easing of India's wholesale price index, the main gauge of inflation in India, which slowed to 7.45 per cent last month compared to 7.81 per cent the previous month.
Inflation "could rise further until December 2012 due to high food prices, spillover of primary inflation into manufactured products, second round impact of the fuel price hike and high international commodity prices", said Sujan Hajra, the chief economist of Anand Rathi Securities, in a recent research note.
"We expect inflation to peak out at 8.5 per cent by December."
India's central bank has been grappling with a difficult economic mix of slowing growth and soaring inflation levels.
A batch of weak data released recently, including a contraction in industrial production, has brought into focus the continued problems that India's economy is facing, with the rupee weakening to a two-month low last week.
"Given the central bank's guidance for monetary policy stance in its last monetary policy review on October 30, we believe that policy rates will remain on hold until the end of 2012, with easing to start in Q1 2013," Morgan Stanley said. It added that inflation could moderate to between 7 and 7.5 per cent during the first quarter of the next calendar year.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept interest rates on hold at high levels despite pressure from industry for a cut, as it has emphasised that inflation remains a concern.
It recently indicated that there could be a rate cut between January and March, when inflationary pressures are expected to subside.
India's wholesale price index fell to a 32-month low of 6.87 per cent in July, but since then it has increased, largely on higher food and energy prices.
A wave of reforms has been introduced by the government in the past couple of months in an effort to try to boost slowing growth and avert a downgrading of its sovereign rating, which it has been warned about by ratings agencies.
"We believe that policy reforms that help to correct the bad growth-mix issue will be key to reviving growth," Morgan Stanley said.
An interest-rate cut this year was unlikely, analysts agreed.
"We believe that the RBI will remain reluctant to cut given the lingering inflation pressures," said Leif Eskesen, the chief economist for India and Asean at HSBC.
"Moreover, it is also still keenly awaiting the announcement or implementation of additional structural policy reform measures and tangible steps to deliver fiscal consolidation."
P Chidambaram, the Indian finance minister, denied on Sunday that he was at loggerheads with the RBI over interest rates.
"The equation between the government and the central bank in India is the same as the equation between the government and the central bank of any country," Mr Chidambaram told the Press Trust of India.
"It is always arguing for growth on the part of government and arguing for stability and taming inflation on the part of the central bank."
[ business@thenational.ae ]
ON TRACK
The Dubai Metaverse Assembly will host three main tracks:
Educate: Consists of more than 10 in-depth sessions on the metaverse
Inspire: Will showcase use cases of the metaverse in tourism, logistics, retail, education and health care
Contribute: Workshops for metaverse foresight and use-case reviews
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Klipit
Started: 2022
Founders: Venkat Reddy, Mohammed Al Bulooki, Bilal Merchant, Asif Ahmed, Ovais Merchant
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Digital receipts, finance, blockchain
Funding: $4 million
Investors: Privately/self-funded
A QUIET PLACE
Starring: Lupita Nyong'o, Joseph Quinn, Djimon Hounsou
Director: Michael Sarnoski
Rating: 4/5
Bridgerton season three - part one
Directors: Various
Starring: Nicola Coughlan, Luke Newton, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 3/5
SHAITTAN
Director: Vikas Bahl
Starring: Ajay Devgn, R. Madhavan, Jyothika, Janaki Bodiwala
Rating: 3/5
'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
Stage 3 results
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 4:42:33
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:03
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:30
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:56
General Classification after Stage 3:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 12:30:02
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:35
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Wilco Kelderman (NED) Team Sunweb) 0:02:06
SPEC SHEET: APPLE M3 MACBOOK AIR (13")
Processor: Apple M3, 8-core CPU, up to 10-core CPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Display: 13.6-inch Liquid Retina, 2560 x 1664, 224ppi, 500 nits, True Tone, wide colour
Memory: 8/16/24GB
Storage: 256/512GB / 1/2TB
I/O: Thunderbolt 3/USB-4 (2), 3.5mm audio, Touch ID
Connectivity: Wi-Fi 6E, Bluetooth 5.3
Battery: 52.6Wh lithium-polymer, up to 18 hours, MagSafe charging
Camera: 1080p FaceTime HD
Video: Support for Apple ProRes, HDR with Dolby Vision, HDR10
Audio: 4-speaker system, wide stereo, support for Dolby Atmos, Spatial Audio and dynamic head tracking (with AirPods)
Colours: Midnight, silver, space grey, starlight
In the box: MacBook Air, 30W/35W dual-port/70w power adapter, USB-C-to-MagSafe cable, 2 Apple stickers
Price: From Dh4,599
EMIRATES'S REVISED A350 DEPLOYMENT SCHEDULE
Edinburgh: November 4 (unchanged)
Bahrain: November 15 (from September 15); second daily service from January 1
Kuwait: November 15 (from September 16)
Mumbai: January 1 (from October 27)
Ahmedabad: January 1 (from October 27)
Colombo: January 2 (from January 1)
Muscat: March 1 (from December 1)
Lyon: March 1 (from December 1)
Bologna: March 1 (from December 1)
Source: Emirates
Company profile
Name: Khodar
Based: Cairo and Alexandria, in Egypt
Founders: Ayman Hamza, Yasser Eidrous and Amr El Sheikh
Sector: agriculture technology
Funding: $500,000
Investors: Saudi Arabia’s Revival Lab and others
Employees: 35
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Signs of heat stroke
- The loss of sodium chloride in our sweat can lead to confusion and an altered mental status and slurred speech
- Body temperature above 39°C
- Hot, dry and red or damp skin can indicate heatstroke
- A faster pulse than usual
- Dizziness, nausea and headaches are also signs of overheating
- In extreme cases, victims can lose consciousness and require immediate medical attention
MORE ON IRAN'S PROXY WARS