The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October issued a report that gave Syria's economic reformers more than a passing grade. With the rest of the global economy hanging on by a thread, Syria can expect its non-oil GDP to grow at a rate of 6.5 per cent, half a percentage point faster than its 2007 level.
The timing of liberalisation - Syria began the process only four years ago - could not have been better; the toxic-debt virus unleashed by Wall Street is unlikely to infect the country's infant banks, forecasts the IMF, "given their limited integration with the global system".
The same could be said for much of the Levantine Middle East. From Alexandria to Riyadh, reformers have redeemed neoliberalism as a catalyst for what had been some of the world's most stagnant economies. Growth throughout the region is expected to average about 6 per cent, owing largely of its low debt levels and the dismantling of trade barriers.
Regional commerce as a percentage of aggregate GDP, once insignificant, is at record levels. Budget deficits are declining and direct foreign investment is on the rise. Currencies that were once tightly controlled now trade freely and have survived the brunt of the worldwide credit crunch more or less intact.
Measured against such humbled financial centres as New York, Shanghai and Dubai, the restraint exercised by the regimes of the Old Middle East seems judicious. Indeed, authorities in Damascus report a net capital inflow as Syrian expatriates transfer funds from damaged banking systems abroad.
On paper at least, such a reversal of fortune is impressive. But there is enough froth in the Levantine boom to suggest a destabilising bubble rather than a broad-based and deeply rooted revival.
Despite rising liquidity levels, jobless rates throughout the region hover at double-digit levels, while the cost of such staple goods as bread and heating oil have leapt beyond the reach of lower-income consumers. Meanwhile, the region's once-vaunted middle class - or what's left of it after decades of war, dislocation, occupation and economic embargoes - still has little to show for several years of liberalisation.
To be fair, the regimes have no control over commodity prices, particularly as they go about the painful business of lifting subsidies. But there is one sin for which they do bear responsibility, either by commission or omission: an unacceptable level of corruption.
There was a time, so goes a common conceit among those old enough to remember it, when corruption was more about patronage than personal enrichment. It was a tactical concession towards a strategic end - the Arab nation, for example, or national cohesion. Nowadays, there is less honour in the art. Hovering around the seats of power are investors who have leveraged the sale of state assets to their pecuniary gain.
So what's the problem? Why, one could reasonably ask, should the Arab world be any different from anywhere else - up to and including the world's largest economy? Was it not the Bush White House, with its lack of transparency and contempt of the public trust, that contributed to America's own culture of corruption?
The collapse of Enron eight years ago and the Bernard Madoff scandal that erupted last month are to Mr Bush's war on middle-class America what the Gulf of Tonkin resolution and the Mayaguez incident were to the US war on North Vietnam: the opening and closing acts of a national nightmare.
By all means, mark well the decline of the US as a standard of ethical probity. But note also the Arab world's poor ranking in several reports conducted with ample local input. The UN's landmark 2004 study, prepared almost exclusively by Arab specialists, details how 90 per cent of people surveyed in five countries believed that political and economic corruption were pervasive.
The report stated that people in power monopolise the main sectors of the economy, "either directly or as 'partners' of successful businessmen". In particular, it cited the invidious trend of "new financial elites... characterised by corruption and tyranny [resulting] in the escalating impoverishment of the middle classes and the marginalisation of the intermediary sectors that provide temporary occupations in many Arab countries".
More recently, an Oct 2007 report by the Berlin-based Transparency International said that "corruption and lack of transparency [in private and public-sector deals] still constitute a very important challenge for the development of the [Middle East] region".
It was the alarming condition of flat economies and rapid population growth rates that convinced Arab leaders to open their markets in the first place. Progress has been substantial, at least when measured by the yardsticks of the IMF and the World Bank. But the facts on the ground suggest the "smoking" economy could be snuffed out as quickly as it was ignited. What would the regimes have to offer then?
Stephen Glain is a business columnist for The National and the author of Mullahs, Merchants and Militants: The Economic Collapse of the Arab World.
sglain@thenational.ae
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
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- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
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Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Challenge Cup result:
1. UAE 3 faults
2. Ireland 9 faults
3. Brazil 11 faults
4. Spain 15 faults
5. Great Britain 17 faults
6. New Zealand 20 faults
7. Italy 26 faults
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The%20specs
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Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
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Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
The biog
Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages
Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”
Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”
Favourite film: “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”
Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
The%20specs
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What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
'The%20Alchemist's%20Euphoria'
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Illegal%20shipments%20intercepted%20in%20Gulf%20region
%3Cp%3EThe%20Royal%20Navy%20raid%20is%20the%20latest%20in%20a%20series%20of%20successful%20interceptions%20of%20drugs%20and%20arms%20in%20the%20Gulf%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMay%2011%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUS%20coastguard%20recovers%20%2480%20million%20heroin%20haul%20from%20fishing%20vessel%20in%20Gulf%20of%20Oman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMay%208%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20US%20coastguard%20vessel%20USCGC%20Glen%20Harris%20seizes%20heroin%20and%20meth%20worth%20more%20than%20%2430%20million%20from%20a%20fishing%20boat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMarch%202%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Anti-tank%20guided%20missiles%20and%20missile%20components%20seized%20by%20HMS%20Lancaster%20from%20a%20small%20boat%20travelling%20from%20Iran%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOctober%209%2C%202022%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERoyal%20Navy%20frigate%20HMS%20Montrose%20recovers%20drugs%20worth%20%2417.8%20million%20from%20a%20dhow%20in%20Arabian%20Sea%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESeptember%2027%2C%202022%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20US%20Naval%20Forces%20Central%20Command%20reports%20a%20find%20of%202.4%20tonnes%20of%20heroin%20on%20board%20fishing%20boat%20in%20Gulf%20of%20Oman%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Luang Prabang via Bangkok, with a return flight from Chiang Rai via Bangkok for about Dh3,000, including taxes. Emirates and Thai Airways cover the same route, also via Bangkok in both directions, from about Dh2,700.
The cruise
The Gypsy by Mekong Kingdoms has two cruising options: a three-night, four-day trip upstream cruise or a two-night, three-day downstream journey, from US$5,940 (Dh21,814), including meals, selected drinks, excursions and transfers.
The hotels
Accommodation is available in Luang Prabang at the Avani, from $290 (Dh1,065) per night, and at Anantara Golden Triangle Elephant Camp and Resort from $1,080 (Dh3,967) per night, including meals, an activity and transfers.
Result
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,950m; Winner: Majestic Thunder, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m; Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh85,000 1,600m; Winner: Native Appeal, Adam McLean, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh115,000 1,950m; Winner: Conclusion, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh100,000 1,400m; Winner: Pilgrim’s Treasure, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
4.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m; Winner: Sanad Libya, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,000m; Winner: Midlander, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8
Power: 503hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 685Nm at 2,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Price: from Dh850,000
On sale: now