International Monetary Fund says GCC economic growth expected to pick up in 2018 and 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
International Monetary Fund says GCC economic growth expected to pick up in 2018 and 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
International Monetary Fund says GCC economic growth expected to pick up in 2018 and 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
International Monetary Fund says GCC economic growth expected to pick up in 2018 and 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo

IMF expects GCC economic growth to pick up


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The oil exporting economies of the Arabian Gulf expect to see a pick-up in GDP growth in 2018 and 2019, after bottoming out last year, as the price of oil rebounds and non-oil business activity recovers, according to the International Monetary Fund.

However, the fund warned uncertainty about the direction of oil prices, growing global trade tensions, geopolitical risks and rising interest rates made the need for economic reforms more urgent.

“If these risks materialise, they could trigger potentially significant fiscal and financing pressures for many countries in the region, affecting prospects for continued fiscal consolidation and economic recovery,” the IMF said in its latest regional economic outlook.

“Weak growth prospects over the medium term underscore the importance of accelerating planned structural reforms.”

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The gross domestic product of oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa grew on aggregate 1.7 per cent in 2017 compared to 5.4 per cent in 2016, and is expected to rise 2.8 per cent in 2018 and 3.3 per cent in 2019. Economic growth in the GCC contracted 0.2 per cent overall last year and Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, went into recession for the first time since 2009. GCC economic growth is expected to rise 1.9 per cent in 2018 and 2.6 per cent in 2019, the IMF said.

The rise in the GCC is due not only to a resurgence of oil prices but also to the improvement of government finances through the reduction of subsidies and, in the case of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the implementation of VAT in January. Governments also tapped global bond markets to raise funds in the wake of the 2014 oil crash, which helped keep infrastructure projects ticking despite some delays. Saudi Arabia also embarked on a wide-ranging reform programme that included a campaign against corruption, allowing women to drive and a plan to sell stakes in state assets, including a 5 per cent stake in Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer.

Meanwhile, economic growth in Mena, Afghanistan and Pakistan as whole is expected to increase 3.4 per cent in 2018 and 3.7 per cent in 2019.

The IMF said that while Mena, Afghanistan and Pakistan would benefit from stronger global growth, especially in the eurozone, higher global interest rates could increase fiscal vulnerabilities.

For oil exporters, supply-side uncertainties make the outlook for oil prices uncertain. The price of crude rose sharply in the second half of 2017, bolstered by improved global growth and an agreement by Opec and others to cut production until the end of 2018. The price of oil has, however, lost some ground in recent months with rapidly rising US shale production.

The IMF said that as well as the global risks of rising import tariffs and a shift towards inward-looking policies, the Middle East region may also face an increase in geopolitical tensions and conflicts, dampening reform momentum.

“At the regional level, conflicts and geopolitical risks persist, and commitment to the implementation of key fiscal measures and structural reforms could weaken, considering the observed increase in oil prices,” the IMF said.

“The continued commitment to fiscal consolidation, although at a slower pace, could, in contrast boost investor confidence and result in stronger growth.”

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Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi

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Investment: $2 million

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
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7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
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9.30pm: Forever Young

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Engine: Dual synchronous electric motors
Power: 639hp
Torque: 1,130Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Touring range: 591km
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On sale: Deliveries start in October

The specs

Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six

Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm

Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto

Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km

Price: From Dh796,600

On sale: now

South Africa squad

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Ultra processed foods

- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns 

- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;

- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces

- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,

- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.

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  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
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THE 12 BREAKAWAY CLUBS

England

Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur

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AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus

Spain
Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid

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The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

How Filipinos in the UAE invest

A recent survey of 10,000 Filipino expatriates in the UAE found that 82 per cent have plans to invest, primarily in property. This is significantly higher than the 2014 poll showing only two out of 10 Filipinos planned to invest.

Fifty-five percent said they plan to invest in property, according to the poll conducted by the New Perspective Media Group, organiser of the Philippine Property and Investment Exhibition. Acquiring a franchised business or starting up a small business was preferred by 25 per cent and 15 per cent said they will invest in mutual funds. The rest said they are keen to invest in insurance (3 per cent) and gold (2 per cent).

Of the 5,500 respondents who preferred property as their primary investment, 54 per cent said they plan to make the purchase within the next year. Manila was the top location, preferred by 53 per cent.

Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?

Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.

They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.

“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.

He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.

Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters

The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.

 Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.

A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.

The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.

The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.

Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.

Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment

But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.

Emergency phone numbers in the UAE

Estijaba – 8001717 –  number to call to request coronavirus testing

Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111

Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre

Emirates airline – 600555555

Etihad Airways – 600555666

Ambulance – 998

Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries

RESULT

Manchester United 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Man United: Sanchez (24' ), Herrera (62')
Spurs: Alli (11')

TICKETS

For tickets for the two-day Maharlika Pilipinas Basketball League (MPBL) event, entitled Dubai Invasion 2019, on September 27 and 28 go to www.meraticket.com.