Iraqi technicians at work on oil fields. By 2040, crude will be eclipsed by the rise of the cleaner, more-efficient natural gas as the main source of energy in the Middle East. Haidar Mohammed/AFP
Iraqi technicians at work on oil fields. By 2040, crude will be eclipsed by the rise of the cleaner, more-efficient natural gas as the main source of energy in the Middle East. Haidar Mohammed/AFP

Natural gas to account for 60 per cent of Middle East consumption by 2040, says BP



Natural gas will overtake oil in the Middle East to become the dominant fuel, accounting for around 60 per cent of consumption by 2040, BP said in its annual energy outlook, underlining regional efforts to switch to the cleaner source to free up more crude for export.

The region will remain the largest producer of crude, and the second-largest producer of gas accounting for 34 per cent and 20 per cent of the world’s total over the next two decades, BP said in its outlook report.

The Middle East - one of the most energy-intensive regions in the world thanks to high demand for desalinated water and a heavily climate-controlled environment to cope with the region’s searing summer temperatures will see consumption increase by 54 per cent by 2040. However this growth will now be powered by cleaner natural gas, which oil exporters of the region such as Saudi Arabia have begun switching for fuel oil to generate power.

BP, which prepares the annual outlook to guide its policy making is seen as a bellwether of where Big Oil is heading in the future. The energy scenario in 2040 will be the most diversified ever, with renewables becoming the fastest growing source, accounting for 40 per cent of the increase in primary energy, according to the report.

The share of non-fossil fuels, notably wind and solar will increase in the Middle East in tandem with global trends, rising to 8 per cent by 2040 from one per cent at present. The share of solar and wind will be 20 per cent each within the renewables mix, with 15 per cent coming from developments in nuclear.

Oil-exporters in the region such as Saudi Arabia have warmed up to renewables, with non-fossil fuel based power projects being accelerated rapidly to meet looming targets over the next five years.

This year alone, the world’s biggest oil-exporting country is expected to tender around 3.25 Gigawatts-worth of solar capacity and 800MW of wind as it looks to develop around 9.5GW of renewables capacity by 2023.

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Read more:

Middle East LNG demand forecast to dip as Egypt becomes self sufficient

Saudi Arabia's gas hunt

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The region is also expected to see commercial use of nuclear, with the expected coming on-stream of the first phase of the UAE's Barakah facility this year and Saudi Arabia’s plans to develop 16 reactors of 17.6GW capacity by 2032.

BP also forecast the production of conventional oil - the region’s mainstay - will decline to 29 million barrels per day by 2040 from approximately 31.7 million bpd last year.

The Middle East, which accounts for the largest reserves of natural gas, particularly offshore Iran and Qatar will see an expansion in the production of natural gas by 60 per cent by 2040.

This expansion will position the region as the largest exporter of LNG, however its share of the world’s total exports will decline from 35 per cent at present to a quarter by 2040. Pipeline exports are also set to increase to three billion cubic feet a day by the same timeline.

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German intelligence warnings
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Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village

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Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans

Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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ICC Intercontinental Cup

UAE squad Rohan Mustafa (captain), Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Saqlain Haider, Ahmed Raza, Mohammed Naveed, Imran Haider, Qadeer Ahmed, Mohammed Boota, Amir Hayat, Ashfaq Ahmed

Fixtures Nov 29-Dec 2

UAE v Afghanistan, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Hong Kong v Papua New Guinea, Sharjah Cricket Stadium

Ireland v Scotland, Dubai International Stadium

Namibia v Netherlands, ICC Academy, Dubai

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Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid

GOLF’S RAHMBO

- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
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If you go

The flights

There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.

The trip

Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.

The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.

 

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UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

In numbers

1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:

  • 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
  • 150 tonnes to landfill
  • 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal

800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal

Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year

25 staff on site

 

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Director: Magizh Thirumeni

Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra

Rating: 4/5

 

Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company

The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
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Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

Rating: 2/5