US investment bank Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trade at $105 a barrel by the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by a “solid” growth in global oil demand.
It expects oil demand to grow by 2.7 million barrels per day this year and said the market would be back in a deficit in the second half of 2023.
This should allow the Opec+ alliance to unwind its October production cut in the second half of the year, said Goldman Sachs.
However, if the market turns out to be softer, then alliance “could stick to its October cuts or cut production even further, given its significant pricing power”.
“Overall, this ‘Opec put’ limits the downside risks to our bullish oil price forecast,” the lender said.
In October, the Opec+ group of oil-producing countries slashed its collective output by 2 million bpd until the end of 2023 on concerns of a global economic slowdown.
The group stuck to its production targets in December amid fears that sanctions on Russian oil exports would significantly reduce global crude supplies.
The impact on oil prices of news surrounding Opec+'s supply has grown “larger” in recent years, suggesting that the group’s pricing power is now much “greater than usual”, the investment bank said.
This has been aided by US shale producers’ inability to increase output and the lack of immediate substitutes to crude oil, Goldman Sachs said.
Meanwhile, crude futures have registered sharp declines since the start of 2023 amid concerns about China and the growing possibility of a recession.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, and West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, fell by more than 8 per cent last week, their biggest weekly loss in the first seven days of a new year since 2016.
Brent was 0.11 per cent higher at $79.74 a barrel at 1.48pm UAE time on Tuesday while WTI was up 0.35 per cent at $74.89 a barrel.
A stronger dollar, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, weighed on futures.
The US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the greenback against a weighted basket of major currencies, was up 0.22 per cent at 103.23 on Tuesday morning. The index is lower by 1.23 per cent since January 1.
Brent rose by as much as 3.8 per cent to a session high of $81.37 on Monday on news of top crude importer China reopening its borders after about three years. It was 1.4 per cent higher at $79.65 at the time of closing.
“China has issued large import quotas for its independent refiners, implying the country is expecting a sizeable bounce back in oil demand since the Covid-19 restrictions have been lifted,” said Edward Bell, senior director of market economics at Emirates NBD.
Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, said that optimism around China's recovery is not taking prices higher as traders are concerned about the rising Covid-19 cases.
"Some traders are concerned that the reopening of trade in China has pushed the Covid numbers in the Chinese capital to their peak level. Beijing could take a U-turn towards easing its stance of scrapping zero-Covid policy," he said.
Last week, Swiss bank UBS forecast that Brent would trade at $110 a barrel in the middle of 2023 while WTI would average $107 a barrel.
China’s reopening may result in oil demand hitting a “record high” in the second half of this year, the Swiss lender said in a research note.
“Meanwhile, Russian oil production should fall in 2023 due to the European Union's embargo on Russian crude and refined products,” UBS strategists said.
An increase in production outside the Opec+ group of countries is expected to be modest, given years of underinvestment in new oil and gas projects, they said.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
While you're here
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
While you're here
Hussein Ibish: There are reasons for Democrats and Republicans to be happy
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Who are the women driving Joe Biden's success?
While you're here
World Mental Health Day
The%20Specs
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
Company%20Profile
The Limehouse Golem
Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
Three stars
Traces%20of%20Enayat
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Specs
World Cup warm-up fixtures
Friday, May 24:
- Pakistan v Afghanistan (Bristol)
- Sri Lanka v South Africa (Cardiff)
Saturday, May 25
- England v Australia (Southampton)
- India v New Zealand (The Oval, London)
Sunday, May 26
- South Africa v West Indies (Bristol)
- Pakistan v Bangladesh (Cardiff)
Monday, May 27
- Australia v Sri Lanka (Southampton)
- England v Afghanistan (The Oval, London)
Tuesday, May 28
- West Indies v New Zealand (Bristol)
- Bangladesh v India (Cardiff)
SERIES INFO
Schedule:
All matches at the Harare Sports Club
1st ODI, Wed Apr 10
2nd ODI, Fri Apr 12
3rd ODI, Sun Apr 14
4th ODI, Sun Apr 16
UAE squad
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Zimbabwe squad
Peter Moor (captain), Solomon Mire, Brian Chari, Regis Chakabva, Sean Williams, Timycen Maruma, Sikandar Raza, Donald Tiripano, Kyle Jarvis, Tendai Chatara, Chris Mpofu, Craig Ervine, Brandon Mavuta, Ainsley Ndlovu, Tony Munyonga, Elton Chigumbura
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
FIXTURES
All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Brackets denote aggregate score
Tuesday:
Roma (1) v Shakhtar Donetsk (2), 11.45pm
Manchester United (0) v Sevilla (0), 11.45pm
Wednesday:
Besiktas (0) v Bayern Munich (5), 9pm
Barcelona (1) v Chelsea (1), 11.45pm
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
While you're here
Sulaiman Hakemy: Joe Biden has given Afghanistan its own 9/11
National Editorial: Afghanistan's next civil war will be far messier
Con Coughlin: If US cannot lead on Afghanistan, Taliban rule will follow
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
More on animal trafficking
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On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
SPIDER-MAN%3A%20ACROSS%20THE%20SPIDER-VERSE
COMPANY PROFILE
The%20Roundup%20%3A%20No%20Way%20Out
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
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Stats at a glance:
Cost: 1.05 billion pounds (Dh 4.8 billion)
Number in service: 6
Complement 191 (space for up to 285)
Top speed: over 32 knots
Range: Over 7,000 nautical miles
Length 152.4 m
Displacement: 8,700 tonnes
Beam: 21.2 m
Draught: 7.4 m
More on Lebanon
Raghida Dergham: Hezbollah is pushing Lebanon to the brink
Massoud Derhally: Central bank governor a saviour or scapegoat?
Bilal Saab: How the US can bypass Hezbollah and help the people
On Women's Day
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
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Fixtures (all in UAE time)
Friday
Everton v Burnley 11pm
Saturday
Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur 3.30pm
West Ham United v Southampton 6pm
Wolves v Fulham 6pm
Cardiff City v Crystal Palace 8.30pm
Newcastle United v Liverpool 10.45pm
Sunday
Chelsea v Watford 5pm
Huddersfield v Manchester United 5pm
Arsenal v Brighton 7.30pm
Monday
Manchester City v Leicester City 11pm
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
While you're here
Sinan Mahmoud: Qassem Suleimani assassination left Iraq at the mercy of militias
Joyce Karam: Iran reeling from Qassem Suleimani’s killing but not deterred
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
Fanar Haddad: The Iranian response will be gradual
England squads for Test and T20 series against New Zealand
Test squad: Joe Root (capt), Jofra Archer, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Jack Leach, Saqib Mahmood, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Pope, Dominic Sibley, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes
T20 squad: Eoin Morgan (capt), Jonny Bairstow, Tom Banton, Sam Billings, Pat Brown, Sam Curran, Tom Curran, Joe Denly, Lewis Gregory, Chris Jordan, Saqib Mahmood, Dawid Malan, Matt Parkinson, Adil Rashid, James Vince
Brief scores:
Newcastle United 1
Perez 23'
Wolverhampton Rovers 2
Jota 17', Doherty 90' 4
Red cards: Yedlin 57'
Man of the Match: Diogo Jota (Wolves)
Wonka
MORE FROM ED HUSAIN: The UAE-Israel accord is a win for every Muslim
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'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
RESULT
Esperance de Tunis 1 Guadalajara 1
(Esperance won 6-5 on penalties)
Esperance: Belaili 38’
Guadalajara: Sandoval 5’
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Biography
Her family: She has four sons, aged 29, 27, 25 and 24 and is a grandmother-of-nine
Favourite book: Flashes of Thought by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid
Favourite drink: Water
Her hobbies: Reading and volunteer work
Favourite music: Classical music
Her motto: I don't wait, I initiate
The Land between Two Rivers: Writing in an Age of Refugees
Tom Sleigh, Graywolf Press
Pathaan
Kanguva
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Chinese Grand Prix schedule (in UAE time)
Friday: First practice - 6am; Second practice - 10am
Saturday: Final practice - 7am; Qualifying - 10am
Sunday: Chinese Grand Prix - 10.10am
Top goalscorers in Europe
34 goals - Robert Lewandowski (68 points)
34 - Ciro Immobile (68)
31 - Cristiano Ronaldo (62)
28 - Timo Werner (56)
25 - Lionel Messi (50)
*29 - Erling Haaland (50)
23 - Romelu Lukaku (46)
23 - Jamie Vardy (46)
*NOTE: Haaland's goals for Salzburg count for 1.5 points per goal. Goals for Dortmund count for two points per goal.