Middle East markets are likely to be volatile this week amid political unrest in Egypt and Kuwait, adding to the negative sentiment already posed by unstable global markets.
Parliamentary elections in Egypt, scheduled to take place tomorrow, are expected to set the tone for the trading week.
"Egypt and Kuwait is not very good for the mood, and at the same time we are far from a solution in the euro zone," says Sebastien Henin, a portfolio manager at Abu Dhabi's The National Investor.
Egypt's EGX 30 Index tumbled to its lowest level in 32 months after days of clashes between protesters and security forces. It was down 6 per cent to 3,780.13 points at close of play on Friday - and is down 47 per cent so far this year.
"Unless overall political conditions improve in the coming days, Egypt's equity markets could be hit when they open on Tuesday, and bond yields could rise," says Said Hirsh, the Middle East economist at Capital Economics in London.
Egypt's state TV reported on Friday the country's ruling military council had appointed Kamal El Ganzouri, the former prime minister, to lead the next government, following the resignation of the previous cabinet last week.
"On the face of it, and of course if these reports are confirmed, this looks like good news for Egypt's economy," says Mr Hirsh.
Mr El Ganzouri was the prime minister from 1996 to 1999 when he played a key role in improving relations with the IMF and World Bank.
"Given the fact that Egypt is in urgent need of external funding from the IMF, or elsewhere, he appears to be an ideal candidate, assuming of course that the military council grants him full authority in terms of decision-making," Mr Hirsh says. "With elections due, we don't think that the appointment of Mr El Ganzouri alone will help Egypt to avoid a full-blown political and economic crisis."
Kuwait's market, not nearly as turbulent as Egypt's, fell 0.7 per cent to 5,782 points, approaching a seven-year low of 5,746 hit in August, as politics dominated economics.
The public prosecutor on Tuesday ordered the arrest of 45 people accused of involvement in the storming of parliament on November 16 after clashes with riot police that followed a large protest demanding the resignation of the prime minister and the dissolution of parliament.
"The political situation in Kuwait is pretty serious at the moment," Nawaf Al Refaie, the deputy chief executive at Ahli Capital Investment told Reuters.
"Investors are now terrified by the recent unrest which affected the market, not just in terms of percentage loss but also in terms of valuations, volumes and overall liquidity."
Kuwait's economic policymaking has been plagued by disputes between parliament and the cabinet, delaying decisions on reforms and major investment projects.
Kuwait, an Opec member, sits on about 10 per cent of global crude oil reserves and currently pumps about 3 million barrels per day.
In Europe, the focus remains on borrowing rates. On Friday, yields on Italy's bonds rose to 7.5 per cent from 6.64 per cent a week ago, heightening the danger for the region's debt crisis contagion.
UAE markets are expected to remain depressed for some time.
"There are no more catalysts - now that third-quarter results are out - to lift markets," says Fadi Al Said, a senior fund manager at ING Investment Management in Dubai.
The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index fell 1.7 per cent to 2,518.13, while the Dubai Financial Market General Index lost 1.3 per cent to 1,348.59.
Elsewhere in the region: Bahrain's measure lost 1.8 per cent to 1,161.34; Oman's MSM 30 Index moved 1.2 per cent to 5,428.52; Qatar's QE Index lost 1.6 per cent to 8,564.59; The Saudi Tadawul All-Share Index moved 0.47 per cent lower to 6,057.59 yesterday.
halsayegh@thenational.ae
Persuasion
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarrie%20Cracknell%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDakota%20Johnson%2C%20Cosmo%20Jarvis%2C%20Richard%20E%20Grant%2C%20Henry%20Golding%20and%20Nikki%20Amuka-Bird%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Juvenile arthritis
Along with doctors, families and teachers can help pick up cases of arthritis in children.
Most types of childhood arthritis are known as juvenile idiopathic arthritis. JIA causes pain and inflammation in one or more joints for at least six weeks.
Dr Betina Rogalski said "The younger the child the more difficult it into pick up the symptoms. If the child is small, it may just be a bit grumpy or pull its leg a way or not feel like walking,” she said.
According to The National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases in US, the most common symptoms of juvenile arthritis are joint swelling, pain, and stiffness that doesn’t go away. Usually it affects the knees, hands, and feet, and it’s worse in the morning or after a nap.
Limping in the morning because of a stiff knee, excessive clumsiness, having a high fever and skin rash are other symptoms. Children may also have swelling in lymph nodes in the neck and other parts of the body.
Arthritis in children can cause eye inflammation and growth problems and can cause bones and joints to grow unevenly.
In the UK, about 15,000 children and young people are affected by arthritis.
