The US Fed will be normalising monetary policy in 2018, reversing the loose, unconventional policies it has pursued since the onset of the financial crisis 10 years ago. This means rising interest rates and monetary tightening.
The UAE and other GCC countries (with the exception of Kuwait), whose currencies are pegged to the US dollar, will therefore have to follow suit and raise domestic interest rates, their monetary policy driven by the Fed's actions rather than their own needs. Higher interest rates mean the cost of borrowing (on debt, loans, credit facilities and so on) for government, businesses, households and consumers will become more expensive.
Tighter monetary conditions will also result in lower spending and investment. This will dampen economic activity and growth prospects in the UAE, and elsewhere around the region, exacerbating the negative effects of fiscal austerity, recently imposed taxes (VAT and excise duties), geopolitical risks and uncertainty.
US monetary policy, which is geared to the needs of the US business cycle, is not suitable for the economies of the UAE and GCC, which are facing a period of lower growth. The current mix of monetary tightening and fiscal austerity is pro-cyclical, and directly conflicts with the need for GCC countries to conduct a counter-cyclical policy, including monetary loosening and lower interest rates, together with structural reforms in order to adjust to the "new oil normal" of lower prices.
The peg to the US dollar in the past provided an anchor for local currencies, imposed monetary discipline and led to moderate inflation rates. However, it is no longer appropriate for maintaining macroeconomic stability and addressing the GCC's economic development and diversification objectives to transition away from oil-based economies.
A new exchange rate regime
Economic analysis and country experience suggests that exchange rate flexibility is appropriate to address real domestic or external shocks (for example, terms of trade fluctuations) or foreign nominal shocks (foreign inflation shocks), whereas fixed exchange rates are more effective in achieving macroeconomic and financial stability in reaction to domestic nominal shocks.
The strict dollar peg is counter-productive and is no longer the appropriate exchange rate regime for the UAE and other countries in the region for two major reasons. Firstly, a flexible exchange rate regime is required for adjustment to address the real economic shock of the new oil normal, which imply a deterioration in the terms of trade and lower real incomes. Secondly, the peg does not reflect the deep structural changes in the GCC's economic, trade and investment patterns and financial links since the 1980s and the growing shift to the east, to Asia and China (see table).
Greater exchange rate flexibility across the GCC is required to maintain international competitiveness of the region's expanding non-oil sector, whether it is tourism, or industry. GCC states need a more independent exchange rate regime linked to dealing with the business cycle conditions of their main trade and investment partners, which are now the Asian countries and no longer the US and Europe. Other oil exporting countries, such as Russia, have allowed their exchange rates to depreciate, easing adjustment to lower oil prices by contrast to the GCC countries which maintained fixed rates.
Moving to a currency basket
Many options are available in moving from a tight US dollar peg to greater exchange rate flexibility. Pegging to a currency basket allows for some monetary policy independence and exchange rates that respond to macroeconomic shocks. Adopting a currency basket with a band (movements of 5 per cent on either side of a central rate) would provide exchange rate flexibility and enable central banks to deduce a monetary policy that is aimed at regional macroeconomic and financial stability.
Macroeconomic volatility can result from trade shocks and technological disruptions, as well as inflation, oil and non-oil output (business cycle) shocks. For internationally financially integrated economies, financial shocks can also lead to macro volatility. An optimally designed currency basket should take account of the trade, inflation, output and financial linkages between the GCC and its major partners.
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Based on this analysis, the GCC (individual or common) currency baskets should include the dollar, the euro, and Asian currencies such as yuan, given China's status as the region's top trade partner. The individual currency weights in the basket can be adjusted over time to reflect structural changes in trade, output, inflation and financial linkages.
Given the region's dependence on oil exports, an oil-price augmented currency basket would also be an option. For example, including oil prices with a weight of 10 to 15 per cent in the basket would automatically allow adjustment in terms of trade shocks and real shocks, and imply a depreciation (or appreciation) of GCC currencies given a decline (or rise) in oil prices.
The chart above shows a simulation for a UAE currency basket without and with (more fluctuations) the oil price. The UAE dirham would have depreciated since 2014, smoothing adjustment to the oil price shock, and favouring the growing non-oil sector, notably tourism and services industries.
There are some important caveats for introducing a currency basket-based exchange rate mechanism. Policy sequencing is particularly important. Exchange rate regime change should be preceded by fiscal reforms (revenue diversification, targeted subsidies) for fiscal sustainability, and to anchor exchange rate expectations. Similarly, monetary policy independence requires policy tools for market intervention to accompany greater exchange rate flexibility. The GCC region needs to develop broad, deep and liquid local currency money markets and government debt markets to provide instruments for the conduct of monetary policy and exchange rate market interventions.
As the UAE and GCC economies mature, they require an arsenal of economic policy tools to diversify their economies, for macroeconomic stabilisation, economic diversification and fiscal development. Currency basket-based exchange rate mechanisms would certainly be a step in the right direction.
Nasser Saidi is the former chief economist of DIFC and has served as Lebanon’s minister of economy
Remaining fixtures
- August 29 – UAE v Saudi Arabia, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
- September 5 – Iraq v UAE, Amman, Jordan (venue TBC)
Results:
Men's wheelchair 800m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 1.44.79; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 1.45.88; 3. Isaac Towers (GBR) 1.46.46.
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dubai World Cup Carnival card:
6.30pm: Handicap (Turf) | US$175,000 | 2,410 metres
7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (Dirt) | $100,000 | 1,400m
7.40pm: Handicap (T) | $145,000 | 1,000m
8.15pm: Dubawi Stakes Group 3 (D) | $200,000 | 1,200m
8.50pm: Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (T) | $200,000 | 1,800m
9.25pm: Handicap (T) | $175,000 | 1,400m
RIVER%20SPIRIT
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Under 19 Cricket World Cup, Asia Qualifier
Fixtures
Friday, April 12, Malaysia v UAE
Saturday, April 13, UAE v Nepal
Monday, April 15, UAE v Kuwait
Tuesday, April 16, UAE v Singapore
Thursday, April 18, UAE v Oman
UAE squad
Aryan Lakra (captain), Aaron Benjamin, Akasha Mohammed, Alishan Sharafu, Anand Kumar, Ansh Tandon, Ashwanth Valthapa, Karthik Meiyappan, Mohammed Faraazuddin, Rishab Mukherjee, Niel Lobo, Osama Hassan, Vritya Aravind, Wasi Shah
Avengers: Endgame
Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin
4/5 stars
more from Janine di Giovanni
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
The five pillars of Islam
The five pillars of Islam
More coverage from the Future Forum
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Haemoglobin disorders explained
Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.
Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.
The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.
The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.
A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The biog
Fast facts on Neil Armstrong’s personal life:
- Armstrong was born on August 5, 1930, in Wapakoneta, Ohio
- He earned his private pilot’s license when he was 16 – he could fly before he could drive
- There was tragedy in his married life: Neil and Janet Armstrong’s daughter Karen died at the age of two in 1962 after suffering a brain tumour. She was the couple’s only daughter. Their two sons, Rick and Mark, consulted on the film
- After Armstrong departed Nasa, he bought a farm in the town of Lebanon, Ohio, in 1971 – its airstrip allowed him to tap back into his love of flying
- In 1994, Janet divorced Neil after 38 years of marriage. Two years earlier, Neil met Carol Knight, who became his second wife in 1994
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
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If you go
The flights Etihad (www.etihad.com) and Spice Jet (www.spicejet.com) fly direct from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Pune respectively from Dh1,000 return including taxes. Pune airport is 90 minutes away by road.
The hotels A stay at Atmantan Wellness Resort (www.atmantan.com) costs from Rs24,000 (Dh1,235) per night, including taxes, consultations, meals and a treatment package.
T20 World Cup Qualifier
October 18 – November 2
Opening fixtures
Friday, October 18
ICC Academy: 10am, Scotland v Singapore, 2.10pm, Netherlands v Kenya
Zayed Cricket Stadium: 2.10pm, Hong Kong v Ireland, 7.30pm, Oman v UAE
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Darius D’Silva, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Junaid Siddique, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Waheed Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Zahoor Khan
Players out: Mohammed Naveed, Shaiman Anwar, Qadeer Ahmed
Players in: Junaid Siddique, Darius D’Silva, Waheed Ahmed
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital