British public sector borrowing climbed to a record £214.9 billion ($284.89bn) in the first seven months of the fiscal year, as UK finance minister Rishi Sunak plans to announce a squeeze on public sector pay to help bring government spending under control.
The UK government borrowed £22.3bn in October alone, £10.8bn more than the same month a year ago, putting Britain on track for a deficit of £372.2bn by the end of March, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Meanwhile, retail sales rose 1.2 per cent in October on the month, the sixth monthly increase in a row, which took sales 6.8 per cent above their pre-crisis level.
Mr Sunak said the government has provided more than £200bn of support to protect the economy and people’s livelihoods “from the significant and far reaching impacts of coronavirus”.
“This is the responsible thing to do, but it’s also clear that over time it’s right we ensure the public finances are put on a sustainable path,” Mr Sunak said.
Mr Sunak will set out his spending review next week, giving details of how much money will be allocated to different departments, with analysts expecting him to make the case for pay restraints on public sector earnings.
A three-year pay freeze could save the government £23bn by 2023, or £15bn if National Health Service workers are not included, according to a report from the Centre for Policy Studies.
The UK’s borrowing figures so far this fiscal year are now £169.1bn more than in the same period last year and the highest public sector borrowing in any April to October period since records began in 1993.
This puts public debt as a share of gross domestic product at 100.8 per cent, however stronger growth in the economy in the third quarter meant this was down slightly from September's peak of 101.2 per cent, the highest level since the early 1960s.
Paul Dales, chief economist at Capital Economics, expects the second lockdown to cause a renewed rise in the pace of borrowing in the coming months. He expects “the deficit to reach about £420bn in 2020/21” – it’s highest level since the Second World War.
Meanwhile, despite the introduction of some local lockdowns in October, retail sales continued their run of strong growth, with ONS suggesting that some consumers brought forward their Christmas shopping ahead of a second nationwide lockdown this month.
However, the slow recovery in clothing sales stalled after five consecutive months of increased sales.
“The decent rise in retail sales in October and the smaller increase in government borrowing suggests that the economy held up better than expected when the Covid-19 tiered restrictions were being implemented,” said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics
“But the second lockdown that began in November will probably prompt retail sales to fall again and public borrowing to rise faster.”
Spending in department stores rose 3.1 per cent and the mini-housing boom continued to boost sales of household goods, which rose 3.2 per cent.
“There was also little evidence of the stockpiling that occurred before the first lockdown as the volume of food sold in October fell by 0.2 per cent month-on-month,” said Thomas Pugh, UK economist at Capital Economics.
“Internet sales will probably rise again in November, but the closure of all non-essential shops means that overall retail sales will probably fall.”
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, expects a 10-per-cent monthly decline for retail sales this month, far better than the 23-per-cent contraction seen in April. However, if restrictions are eased in December, he expects sales to "set a new peak".
The GfK measure of consumer confidence dropped from minus 31 in October to minus 33 in November, only a fraction above the low of minus 34 in April during the first lockdown.
Consumers have an especially negative outlook for the economy over the next year, with this balance staying at minus 50, only slightly better than the minus 57 reached in May.
Britain can currently borrow cheaply to fund its spending to contain the pandemic, due to low interest rates. However, the Bank of England has warned that some long-term economic damage or scarring is likely, and last month the International Monetary Fund said Britain would probably need to raise taxes after the pandemic to fill the gap.
However, Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics said with interest rates set to stay very low for the foreseeable future, “we don’t think that will cause an adverse reaction in the gilt market or require the government to raise taxes soon”.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Formula%204%20Italian%20Championship%202023%20calendar
%3Cp%3EApril%2021-23%3A%20Imola%3Cbr%3EMay%205-7%3A%20Misano%3Cbr%3EMay%2026-28%3A%20SPA-Francorchamps%3Cbr%3EJune%2023-25%3A%20Monza%3Cbr%3EJuly%2021-23%3A%20Paul%20Ricard%3Cbr%3ESept%2029-Oct%201%3A%20Mugello%3Cbr%3EOct%2013-15%3A%20Vallelunga%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Paris%20Agreement
%3Cp%3EArticle%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E1.%20%5BThe%20Cop%5D%20shall%20periodically%20take%20stock%20of%20the%20implementation%20of%20this%20Agreement%20to%20assess%20the%20collective%20progress%20towards%20achieving%20the%20purpose%20of%20this%20Agreement%20and%20its%20long-term%20goals%20(referred%20to%20as%20the%20%22global%20stocktake%22)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20%5BThe%20Cop%5D%20shall%20undertake%20its%20first%20global%20stocktake%20in%202023%20and%20every%20five%20years%20thereafter%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Section 375
Cast: Akshaye Khanna, Richa Chadha, Meera Chopra & Rahul Bhat
Director: Ajay Bahl
Producers: Kumar Mangat Pathak, Abhishek Pathak & SCIPL
Rating: 3.5/5
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The biog
Birthday: February 22, 1956
Born: Madahha near Chittagong, Bangladesh
Arrived in UAE: 1978
Exercise: At least one hour a day on the Corniche, from 5.30-6am and 7pm to 8pm.
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi? “Everywhere. Wherever you go, you can relax.”
MATCH INFO
Watford 1 (Deulofeu 80' p)
Chelsea 2 (Abraham 5', Pulisic 55')
Try out the test yourself
Q1 Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2 per cent per year. After five years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?
a) More than $102
b) Exactly $102
c) Less than $102
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
Q2 Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1 per cent per year and inflation was 2 per cent per year. After one year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?
a) More than today
b) Exactly the same as today
c) Less than today
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
Q4 Do you think that the following statement is true or false? “Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”
a) True
b) False
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
The “Big Three” financial literacy questions were created by Professors Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business and Olivia Mitchell, of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Answers: Q1 More than $102 (compound interest). Q2 Less than today (inflation). Q3 False (diversification).
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EBattery%3A%2060kW%20lithium-ion%20phosphate%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20Up%20to%20201bhp%3Cbr%3E0%20to%20100kph%3A%207.3%20seconds%3Cbr%3ERange%3A%20418km%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh149%2C900%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
