A general view shows closed shops in the village of Sidi Bou Said, some 20 kilometres northeast of Tunis, during the general confinement imposed by the authorities in order to stem the spread of the novel cononavirus. Afp
A general view shows closed shops in the village of Sidi Bou Said, some 20 kilometres northeast of Tunis, during the general confinement imposed by the authorities in order to stem the spread of the novel cononavirus. Afp
A general view shows closed shops in the village of Sidi Bou Said, some 20 kilometres northeast of Tunis, during the general confinement imposed by the authorities in order to stem the spread of the novel cononavirus. Afp
A general view shows closed shops in the village of Sidi Bou Said, some 20 kilometres northeast of Tunis, during the general confinement imposed by the authorities in order to stem the spread of the n

Tunisia secures $745m IMF loan to fight Covid-19 as economy set to contract


Deena Kamel
  • English
  • Arabic

The International Monetary Fund approved a $745 million (Dh2.7bn) emergency loan to Tunisia to help the North African country mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Tunisia's economy is projected to shrink 4.3 per cent in 2020, its deepest recession since it gained independence in 1956, according to the Washington-based lender.

"The Covid-19 pandemic has hit Tunisia hard," Mitsuhiro Furusawa, the IMF's deputy managing director, said on Saturday. "The pandemic will worsen Tunisia's already elevated macroeconomic imbalances and will also create urgent fiscal and balance of payment needs."
Tunisia has 671 confirmed cases of the deadly virus and 25 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University's coronavirus tracker. The infection is hitting its crucial tourism sector which represents about 10 per cent of the country's gross domestic product.

The Covid-19 pandemic has crippled the world economy, which is now in recession, as factories stand idle, people stay at home and countries close their borders or implement lockdowns.

The IMF funding will help Tunisia cover large fiscal and balance of payments needs, estimated at 2.6 and 4.7 per cent of GDP, respectively, the fund said.

The financing will help Tunisian authorities take measures against the spread of the virus including raising health spending, strengthening social safety nets and supporting small and medium enterprises hit by the crisis.

It will also ensure an adequate level of international reserves and catalyse additional donor financing, the IMF said.

Authorities are committed to maintaining prudent economic policies and resuming fiscal consolidation once the crisis abates to ensure macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of Tunisia’s debt.

“The Central Bank of Tunisia is committed to tighten monetary policy in case of exchange rate or inflation pressures and refrain from large-scale FX interventions to protect international reserves," Mr Furusawa said.

Additional concessional and grant financing from external partners is critical to help Tunisia respond to the coronavirus crisis and help preserve the sustainability of Tunisia's debt, he said.

In a speech on Thursday, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy is facing “a crisis like no other”, with great uncertainty about the extent and duration of the predicament caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The lender, which proposed a four-point recovery plan, is forecasting an "exceptionally difficult" year for the global economy in 2020, with growth likely to be more severely hit than during the 2008 global financial crisis.

The coronavirus crisis is hitting the most vulnerable countries hardest, with outflows from emerging markets reaching $100 billion over the past two months – “more than three times larger than for the same period of the global financial crisis,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday.

The IMF has made $1 trillion in lending capacity available to countries and has doubled access to emergency facilities to $100bn.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The specs
 
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Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.

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Defence review at a glance

• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”

• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems

• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.

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The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo

Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000

Engine: 5.6-litre V8

Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm

Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km

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