Iran’s economy is likely to contract this year and next, heading into a recession on the back of sharp declines in oil exports and a further slump in already-low foreign investment inflows as the US reimposes sanctions on Tehran.
After steadily growing in 2017, economic activity in Iran is forecast to contract by 1.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent in 2018-19, the World Bank said in its World Economic Outlook released on Thursday. Fitch Solutions, a part of Fitch Group, estimates Iranian gross domestic product to contract by 4.3 per cent in 2019 and expand beyond that time frame - albeit at a modest rate.
“Our core view is for the re-imposition of US nuclear-related sanctions to cause a sharp slowdown in the Iranian economy in 2018 and trigger a recession in 2019, as exports and investment inflows decline, and rising inflation and high unemployment weigh on consumption,” the Fitch report said.
Weakness of the Iranian rial and fast-rising inflation will also weigh on domestic investment and consumption, both the World bank and Fitch Solutions’ reports noted.
The World Bank expects the annual inflation rate to exceed 30 per cent on average in 2019, up from 9.6 per cent last year. Although the depreciation of the currency could help improve non-oil exports, it will not be enough to offset the loss of oil exports, which still account for 40 per cent of the government’s revenues and export receipts.
Earlier this week Fitch estimated inflation in Iran to average 33.2 per cent in the 2018-2019 financial year that started in April, nearly double its previous forecast of 17 per cent. It expects the rial to continue to weaken further on the back of continued expansion of Iran’s monetary base.
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WATCH: Tim Marshall on Iran sanctions
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The rising cost of living led to public dissent and mass protests in several Iranian cities earlier this year.
US sanctions on Iranian oil imports will come into force in early November, however, crude exports dropped off sharply over August and September in the lead-up to sanctions, Fitch Solutions noted, citing tanker tracking data.
“This trend is already playing out even before the [sanctions] activation date, as importers of Iranian oil attempt to either comply or qualify for limited sanctions waivers,” Fitch Solutions noted.
The state of Iran’s economy is worsening as the deadline of re-imposition of sanctions by US over its nuclear programme nears. The sharp fall in the value of the Iranian currency in the unofficial market, inflationary pressures, and high unemployment rates, especially among youth - estimated at 30 percent in 2018 by the World Bank and International Labor Organization - could lead to stagflation. The financial woes are compounded by the structural weaknesses and deteriorating asset quality of Iran’s financial institutions, which are unable to access the international financial system.
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Read more:
Iranian inflation set to rise sharply as US sanctions deadline approaches
Iran central bank authorised to intervene in foreign exchange market to defend rial
Mike Pompeo heads talks to counter 'malign' Iran
US to close consulate in Basra over Iran security risk
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Iran's rial has hit multiple record lows this year against the US dollar. The demand for the dollar is stoked by concerns that the impact of US sanctions would be felt beyond the country’s crude shipments and will affect Iran’s broader export sector.
Last month, Iran authorised the central bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market in defence of its currency. A top government body, headed by President Hassan Rouhani and the heads of parliament and the judiciary, "gave the central bank governor the necessary authority to intervene in the foreign exchange market and to manage it", Reuters cited state TV as saying at the time.
“Declining foreign exchange inflows and rising money supply growth will fuel depreciation of the rial - which has already suffered severe losses in the ‘free market’ over the year-to-date and send inflation higher,” the Fitch report said. “Coupled with very limited credit availability this will constrain private domestic investment and consumption.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: SmartCrowd
Started: 2018
Founder: Siddiq Farid and Musfique Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech / PropTech
Initial investment: $650,000
Current number of staff: 35
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Various institutional investors and notable angel investors (500 MENA, Shurooq, Mada, Seedstar, Tricap)
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 400hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh234,000 - Dh329,000
On sale: now
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Almouneer
Started: 2017
Founders: Dr Noha Khater and Rania Kadry
Based: Egypt
Number of staff: 120
Investment: Bootstrapped, with support from Insead and Egyptian government, seed round of
$3.6 million led by Global Ventures
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Haltia.ai
Started: 2023
Co-founders: Arto Bendiken and Talal Thabet
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: AI
Number of employees: 41
Funding: About $1.7 million
Investors: Self, family and friends
Zimbabwe v UAE, ODI series
All matches at the Harare Sports Club
- 1st ODI, Wednesday, April 10
- 2nd ODI, Friday, April 12
- 3rd ODI, Sunday, April 14
- 4th ODI, Sunday, April 16
Squads:
- UAE: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
- Zimbabwe: Peter Moor (captain), Solomon Mire, Brian Chari, Regis Chakabva, Sean Williams, Timycen Maruma, Sikandar Raza, Donald Tiripano, Kyle Jarvis, Tendai Chatara, Chris Mpofu, Craig Ervine, Brandon Mavuta, Ainsley Ndlovu, Tony Munyonga, Elton Chigumbura
'The Predator'
Dir: Shane Black
Starring: Olivia Munn, Boyd Holbrook, Keegan-Michael Key
Two and a half stars
Kill
Director: Nikhil Nagesh Bhat
Starring: Lakshya, Tanya Maniktala, Ashish Vidyarthi, Harsh Chhaya, Raghav Juyal
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs
Engine: 6.5-litre V12 and three electric motors
Power: 1,015hp
Torque: 1,500Nm (estimate)
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Early 2024
Price: From Dh2 million (estimate)
SPEC SHEET: APPLE IPHONE 15 PRO MAX
Display: 6.7" Super Retina XDR OLED, 2796 x 1290, 460ppi, 120Hz, 2000 nits max, HDR, True Tone, P3, always-on
Processor: A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 6-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Memory: 8GB
Capacity: 256/512GB / 1TB
Platform: iOS 17
Main camera: Triple: 48MP main (f/1.78) + 12MP ultra-wide (f/2.2) + 12MP 5x telephoto (f/2.8); 5x optical zoom in, 2x optical zoom out; 10x optical zoom range, digital zoom up to 25x; Photonic Engine, Deep Fusion, Smart HDR 4, Portrait Lighting
Main camera video: 4K @ 24/25/30/60fps, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps, HD @ 30fps, slo-mo @ 120/240fps, ProRes (4K) @ 60fps; night, time lapse, cinematic, action modes; Dolby Vision, 4K HDR
Front camera: 12MP TrueDepth (f/1.9), Photonic Engine, Deep Fusion, Smart HDR 4, Portrait Lighting; Animoji, Memoji
Front camera video: 4K @ 24/25/30/60fps, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps, slo-mo @ 120/240fps, ProRes (4K) @ 30fps; night, time lapse, cinematic, action modes; Dolby Vision, 4K HDR
Battery: 4441mAh, up to 29h video, 25h streaming video, 95h audio; fast charge to 50% in 30min (with at least 20W adaptor); MagSafe, Qi wireless charging
Connectivity: Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.3, NFC (Apple Pay), second-generation Ultra Wideband chip
Biometrics: Face ID
I/O: USB-C
Durability: IP68, water-resistant up to 6m up to 30min; dust/splash-resistant
Cards: Dual eSIM / eSIM + eSIM (US models use eSIMs only)
Colours: Black titanium, blue titanium, natural titanium, white titanium
In the box: iPhone 15 Pro Max, USB-C-to-USB-C woven cable, one Apple sticker
Price: Dh5,099 / Dh5,949 / Dh6,799
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
TWISTERS
Director:+Lee+Isaac+Chung
Starring:+Glen+Powell,+Daisy+Edgar-Jones,+Anthony+Ramos
Rating:+2.5/5
NYBL PROFILE
Company name: Nybl
Date started: November 2018
Founder: Noor Alnahhas, Michael LeTan, Hafsa Yazdni, Sufyaan Abdul Haseeb, Waleed Rifaat, Mohammed Shono
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Software Technology / Artificial Intelligence
Initial investment: $500,000
Funding round: Series B (raising $5m)
Partners/Incubators: Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 4, Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 6, AI Venture Labs Cohort 1, Microsoft Scale-up
Director: Shady Ali
Cast: Boumi Fouad , Mohamed Tharout and Hisham Ismael
Rating: 3/5
What is cystic fibrosis?
- Cystic fibrosis is a genetic disorder that affects the lungs, pancreas and other organs.
- It causes the production of thick, sticky mucus that can clog the airways and lead to severe respiratory and digestive problems.
- Patients with the condition are prone to lung infections and often suffer from chronic coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath.
- Life expectancy for sufferers of cystic fibrosis is now around 50 years.
THE SPECS
GMC Sierra Denali 1500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Price: Dh232,500
Ferrari
Director: Michael Mann
Starring: Adam Driver, Penelope Cruz, Shailene Woodley, Patrick Dempsey
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: DarDoc
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founders: Samer Masri, Keswin Suresh
Sector: HealthTech
Total funding: $800,000
Investors: Flat6Labs, angel investors + Incubated by Hub71, Abu Dhabi's Department of Health
Number of employees: 10
Company profile
Company name: Fasset
Started: 2019
Founders: Mohammad Raafi Hossain, Daniel Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $2.45 million
Current number of staff: 86
Investment stage: Pre-series B
Investors: Investcorp, Liberty City Ventures, Fatima Gobi Ventures, Primal Capital, Wealthwell Ventures, FHS Capital, VN2 Capital, local family offices
More from UAE Human Development Report:
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 3-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 424hp
Torque: 580 Nm
Price: From Dh399,000
On sale: Now