A protest outside the White House in Washington demands action on climate change and green jobs. Reuters
A protest outside the White House in Washington demands action on climate change and green jobs. Reuters
A protest outside the White House in Washington demands action on climate change and green jobs. Reuters
A protest outside the White House in Washington demands action on climate change and green jobs. Reuters

Inaction on climate could cost G7 nations trillions


Simon Rushton
  • English
  • Arabic

Inaction on climate change could cost G7 nations 8.5 per cent in lost gross domestic product annually by 2050 and include heavy job losses, Oxfam said on Monday.

The charities group said more ambitious action is needed to tackle climate change if its worst effects are to be avoided by the world's biggest economies.

Analysis of research by the Swiss Re Institute showed the world needs to cut carbon emissions more quickly and steeply, Oxfam said.

"The climate crisis is already devastating lives in poorer countries but the world's most developed economies are not immune," said Danny Sriskandarajah, chief executive of Oxfam GB.
"The UK government has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to lead the world towards a safer, more liveable planet for all of us.
"It should strain every diplomatic sinew to secure the strongest possible outcome at the G7 and Cop26 summits, and lead by example by turning promises into action and reversing self-defeating decisions like the proposed coal-mine in Cumbria and cuts to overseas aid."

Swiss Re looked at how climate change is likely to affect economies through gradual, chronic climate risks such as heat stress, higher sea levels, health problems and the effects on agricultural productivity.

Oxfam's analysis found the loss in GDP, assuming 2.6°C of warming, would be double that of the coronavirus pandemic, which has caused G7 economies to shrink by an average of 4.2 per cent.
The UK economy is projected to lose up to 6.5 per cent of its value by mid-century, compared with 2.4 per cent if it succeeds in pushing other nations to reduce emissions fast enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

  • Around $3.5 trillion is required between now and 2050 to meet targets for a 'sustainable path', according to the International Energy Agency. AP Photo
    Around $3.5 trillion is required between now and 2050 to meet targets for a 'sustainable path', according to the International Energy Agency. AP Photo
  • The makeshift Suweida camp for internally displaced people in Yemen’s Marib province. The effects of climate change have exacerbated the displacement of local populations during the country’s war. AFP
    The makeshift Suweida camp for internally displaced people in Yemen’s Marib province. The effects of climate change have exacerbated the displacement of local populations during the country’s war. AFP
  • A firefighter monitors a controlled burn, near Jolon, California.Frequent wildfires are an indication of climate change further getting out of control, say environmentalists. Bloomberg
    A firefighter monitors a controlled burn, near Jolon, California.Frequent wildfires are an indication of climate change further getting out of control, say environmentalists. Bloomberg
  • Wildfire burns through the Angeles National Forest in Los Angeles County, north of Azusa, California. AFP
    Wildfire burns through the Angeles National Forest in Los Angeles County, north of Azusa, California. AFP
  • Steam rises from a steel mill in Duisburg, Germany. Some countries are using the coronavirus pandemic to wind back climate change commitments, say environmentalists. Getty Images
    Steam rises from a steel mill in Duisburg, Germany. Some countries are using the coronavirus pandemic to wind back climate change commitments, say environmentalists. Getty Images
  • A deforested area close to Sinop, Mato Grosso State, Brazil. Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest rose by almost 22 percent from August 2020 to July 2021, compared with the same period the year before, reaching a 15-year high. AFP
    A deforested area close to Sinop, Mato Grosso State, Brazil. Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest rose by almost 22 percent from August 2020 to July 2021, compared with the same period the year before, reaching a 15-year high. AFP

The US would be hit with a 7.2 per cent loss by 2050, Japan 9.1 per cent, Italy 11.4 per cent, Germany 8.3 per cent, France 10 per cent and Canada 6.9 per cent
The economies of all 48 nations in the Swiss Re study are expected to contract, with many of them predicted to be hit far worse than the G7 countries.
For example, by 2050, India is forecast to lose 27 per cent from its economy, Australia 12.5 per cent and the Philippines 35 per cent.
Oxfam said the G7 nations have all set new climate targets but most are still below targets that would keep global warming below 1.5°C.

They said the G7 was also collectively failing to deliver on a longstanding pledge by developed countries to provide $100 billion each year to help poor countries respond to climate change.

Key Points
  • Protests against President Omar Al Bashir enter their sixth day
  • Reports of President Bashir's resignation and arrests of senior government officials
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

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Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

The studios taking part (so far)
  1. Punch
  2. Vogue Fitness 
  3. Sweat
  4. Bodytree Studio
  5. The Hot House
  6. The Room
  7. Inspire Sports (Ladies Only)
  8. Cryo