Investors are confident that the US Federal Reserve, under its chair Janet Yellen, will raise interest rates further this year. Cliff Owen / AP Photo
Investors are confident that the US Federal Reserve, under its chair Janet Yellen, will raise interest rates further this year. Cliff Owen / AP Photo

Dollar steadies as investors await US inflation data



The dollar steadied in Asian trading on Tuesday, maintaining most of the gains it made on last week's robust employment data that kept hope alive that the US Federal Reserve could still increase interest rates this year.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was steady on the day at 93.412 . It held well above last week's 15-month low of 92.548, though was shy of Friday's post-jobs data high of 93.774 as investors pondered the timing of the US central bank's next tightening steps.

"Looking to the Fed futures market, there's less than a 50 per cent chance of one more rate hike this year," said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at US Bank Private Client Group in Helena, Montana.

Investors also await clues as to when the Fed will begin shrinking its $4.2 trillion bond portfolio.

"The September meeting is where we are anticipating the identification of the start date and we would not be surprised to see it start in an almost an immediate fashion," he said.

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US producer prices for July due on Thursday and consumer price index figures on Friday will give investors a clue about the extent to which the strengthening labour market is spilling over into inflation.

Last Fridays' jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by a bigger-than-forecast 209,000 jobs in July, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3 per cent to match expectations after rising 0.2 per cent in June.

Comments on Monday from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari had a muted impact on the dollar.

Bullard said the Fed can leave interest rates where they are for now because inflation is not likely to rise much even if the US job market continues to improve.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, has been running at 1.5 per cent and has trended away from the central bank's 2 per cent target in recent months.

That measure is forecast to rise only to 1.8 per cent if the US unemployment rate falls to an "unprecedented" 3 per cent from the current 4.3 per cent, Bullard said. With so little upward pressure on inflation, the Fed does not need to raise rates to slow growth, he said.

Bullard's assessment provides market participants with further credence as to why the dollar has not strengthened much, even after the solid jobs data, Northey said.

Against its Japanese counterpart, the dollar edged up to 110.78 yen.

It was also steady against the euro, which was buying $1.1800.

On Monday, the single currency largely shrugged off an unexpected fall in German industrial production in June.

* Reuters

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Retirement funds heavily invested in equities at a risky time

Pension funds in growing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have a sharply higher percentage of assets parked in stocks, just at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail markets.

Retirement money managers in 14 geographies now allocate 40 per cent of their assets to equities, an 8 percentage-point climb over the past five years, according to a Mercer survey released last week that canvassed government, corporate and mandatory pension funds with almost $5 trillion in assets under management. That compares with about 25 per cent for pension funds in Europe.

The escalating trade spat between the US and China has heightened fears that stocks are ripe for a downturn. With tensions mounting and outcomes driven more by politics than economics, the S&P 500 Index will be on course for a “full-scale bear market” without Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, Citigroup’s global macro strategy team said earlier this week.

The increased allocation to equities by growth-market pension funds has come at the expense of fixed-income investments, which declined 11 percentage points over the five years, according to the survey.

Hong Kong funds have the highest exposure to equities at 66 per cent, although that’s been relatively stable over the period. Japan’s equity allocation jumped 13 percentage points while South Korea’s increased 8 percentage points.

The money managers are also directing a higher portion of their funds to assets outside of their home countries. On average, foreign stocks now account for 49 per cent of respondents’ equity investments, 4 percentage points higher than five years ago, while foreign fixed-income exposure climbed 7 percentage points to 23 per cent. Funds in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are among those seeking greater diversification in stocks and fixed income.

• Bloomberg

UAE athletes heading to Paris 2024

Equestrian

Abdullah Humaid Al Muhairi, Abdullah Al Marri, Omar Al Marzooqi, Salem Al Suwaidi, and Ali Al Karbi (four to be selected).

Judo
Men: Narmandakh Bayanmunkh (66kg), Nugzari Tatalashvili (81kg), Aram Grigorian (90kg), Dzhafar Kostoev (100kg), Magomedomar Magomedomarov (+100kg); women's Khorloodoi Bishrelt (52kg).

Cycling
Safia Al Sayegh (women's road race).

Swimming

Men: Yousef Rashid Al Matroushi (100m freestyle); women: Maha Abdullah Al Shehi (200m freestyle).

Athletics

Maryam Mohammed Al Farsi (women's 100 metres).


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