Cargo containers at Jebel Ali Port in Dubai. The UAE's goods trade with the rest of the world hit $1.024 trillion last year, the WTO said. Reuters
Cargo containers at Jebel Ali Port in Dubai. The UAE's goods trade with the rest of the world hit $1.024 trillion last year, the WTO said. Reuters
Cargo containers at Jebel Ali Port in Dubai. The UAE's goods trade with the rest of the world hit $1.024 trillion last year, the WTO said. Reuters
Cargo containers at Jebel Ali Port in Dubai. The UAE's goods trade with the rest of the world hit $1.024 trillion last year, the WTO said. Reuters

UAE's trade to grow amid non-oil sector growth and Cepa deals, economists say


Deena Kamel
  • English
  • Arabic

The UAE's trade with the rest of the world is set to grow, bolstered by its focus on growing its non-oil sector, the country's wider reach to markets through trade deals and the reopening of the Chinese economy, according to analysts.

Trade will continue to be an important pillar of the Emirates' economy and is expected to diversify further beyond oil exports as the Gulf country identifies areas of future growth, from advanced manufacturing to creative industries, they said.

"We expect trade in goods and services to expand and be stimulative of economic growth," Scott Livermore, chief economist at Oxford Economics, said.

The UAE, a global transport and logistics hub, is expected to register an increase in the trade of goods this year, despite global headwinds such as economic fragmentation and nearshoring in a post-pandemic world.

"We expect the volume of trade to remain robust, even if economic challenges in Europe and the US limit growth. However, emerging markets and Asia are likely to see much strong growth, especially following the reopening of China, and this is likely to present some opportunities for the transport and logistics sector in the UAE, as will continued normalisation of supply chains," Mr Livermore said.

The UAE's aviation sector will also benefit from the continued rebound in travel and tourism, particularly the long-haul travel market that is key for airlines such as Emirates, he added.

Last week, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, said the UAE's trade is set to surge further this year following strong growth last year.

The UAE accounted for 2.4 per cent of the world's goods exports last year, according to the World Trade Organisation's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released last week.

The country's goods trade with the rest of the world hit $1.024 trillion in 2022, with exports and imports increasing due to higher crude oil prices, the WTO said.

The value of its exports reached $599 billion last year, marking annual growth of 41 per cent, while imports reached $425 billion, accounting for 1.7 per cent of global merchandise imports.

The UAE was ranked 11th in the world among the top commodity-exporting countries, the report found.

The country is taking several steps to further boost its trade volumes.

Dubai's D33 economic agenda, which aims to double the size of its economy with a target of reaching Dh32 trillion ($8.71 trillion) by 2033, also aims to double the size of the emirate’s foreign trade and add 400 cities to its foreign trade map in the next decade. The 10-year strategy also seeks to establish Dubai among the top three global cities and a preferred destination for major international companies and investments.

"Growing international trade is a key component of both Dubai’s D33 and the UAE’s long-term growth strategy. This goes hand in hand with the plans to boost the size of the UAE’s manufacturing sector, and increasing the value-added in UAE goods exports," Khatija Haque, chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD, said.

"Trade agreements will go some way towards boosting the UAE’s non-oil trade in the coming years, as will broadening the UAE’s international trade network."

The UAE’s non-oil foreign trade rose 17 per cent annually to hit a record Dh2.23 trillion last year as the Emirates put in place measures to diversify its economy and boost its economic partnerships.

The country is working towards signing 26 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, Abdulla bin Touq, Minister of Economy, said last month.

It aims to eliminate unnecessary trade barriers, increase market access and set up investment and trade ventures with its partners.

The country has already signed Cepa deals with India, Israel, Indonesia and Turkey, and is close to finalising agreements with Cambodia and Kenya. It also announced the start of Cepa negotiations with Vietnam last week.

The Cepa deals "lay the foundation for future growth" of the UAE's trade, Mr Livermore said.

"The UAE’s approach to recent trade deals has been focused on agreeing Cepas with a wide range of countries and not just major markets," he added.

The UAE is set to become a key driver of global trade growth, with its exports projected to expand at an average annual rate of more than six per cent to Dh1.1 trillion by 2030 as the country focuses on diversifying its economy away from oil, according to a January report by Standard Chartered.

Metals and minerals, gold, machinery and electricals will dominate the country’s exports over the next decade, with India and mainland China being the principal export markets, it said.

Anxiety and work stress major factors

Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.

A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.

Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.

One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.

It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."

Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.

“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi. 

“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."

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Financial considerations before buying a property

Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.

“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says. 

Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.

Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier. 

PROFILE OF SWVL

Started: April 2017

Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport

Size: 450 employees

Investment: approximately $80 million

Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani

2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups

Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.

Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.

Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.

Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).

Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.

Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.

Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.

Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.

Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23

UAE fixtures:
Men

Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final

Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final

HOW DO SIM CARD SCAMS WORK?

Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.

They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards, often by claiming their phone has been lost or stolen 

They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.

The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.

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Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

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Top 5 concerns globally:

1. Unemployment

2. Spread of infectious diseases

3. Fiscal crises

4. Cyber attacks

5. Profound social instability

Top 5 concerns in the Mena region

1. Energy price shock

2. Fiscal crises

3. Spread of infectious diseases

4. Unmanageable inflation

5. Cyber attacks

Source: World Economic Foundation

World Cup League Two

Results

Oman beat Nepal by 18 runs

Oman beat United States by six wickets

Nepal beat United States by 35 runs

Oman beat Nepal by eight wickets

 

Fixtures

Tuesday, Oman v United States

Wednesday, Nepal v United States

 

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MATCH INFO

Qalandars 112-4 (10 ovs)

Banton 53 no

Northern Warriors 46 all out (9 ovs)

Kumara 3-10, Garton 3-10, Jordan 2-2, Prasanna 2-7

Qalandars win by six wickets

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

England's all-time record goalscorers:
Wayne Rooney 53
Bobby Charlton 49
Gary Lineker 48
Jimmy Greaves 44
Michael Owen 40
Tom Finney 30
Nat Lofthouse 30
Alan Shearer 30
Viv Woodward 29
Frank Lampard 29

Tank warfare

Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks. 

“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.

“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”

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Bundesliga fixtures

Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)

Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm) 

RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm) 

Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm) 

Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn  (4.30pm) 

Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm) 

Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)

Sunday, May 17

Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),

Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)

Monday, May 18

Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)

Coal Black Mornings

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MATCH INFO

Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern:
 Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)

Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)

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While you're here
Dust and sand storms compared

Sand storm

  • Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
  • Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
  • Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
  • Travel distance: Limited 
  • Source: Open desert areas with strong winds

Dust storm

  • Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
  • Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
  • Duration: Can linger for days
  • Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
  • Source: Can be carried from distant regions
MATCH INFO

Leeds United 0

Brighton 1 (Maupay 17')

Man of the match: Ben White (Brighton)

FA CUP FINAL

Manchester City 6
(D Silva 26', Sterling 38', 81', 87', De Bruyne 61', Jesus 68')

Watford 0

Man of the match: Bernardo Silva (Manchester City)

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Updated: April 11, 2023, 6:17 AM`