Britons' urge to spend will soon brighten today's dark UK retail picture



Analysts are calling it the worst week in retail since the end of the recession 18 months ago.

The extent of the UK's rock-bottom consumer confidence was laid bare over the past five days.

The electrical retailer Dixons gave its second profits warning of the year, while the wine merchant Oddbins went into administration. The fashion and home wares retailers Mothercare and Laura Ashley warned of tougher trading conditions.

Even John Lewis, a middle-class department store that seemed indifferent to sentiment, said that last week's sales were down 3.8 per cent on last year's figures.

This follows last month's budget, which did little to relieve the pressure on the household purse.

Immediately before the budget presentation by George Osborne, the chancellor, Justin King, the chief executive of Sainsbury's, warned that there had been a sharp and measurable slow-down in shopping since Christmas. Shortly after the chancellor sat down, the Conservative-supporting Simon Wolfson, the chief executive of Next, said that this year would be like "walking up the down escalator".

One retail analyst said it was the worst he could remember seeing in about 30 years. Now analysts are preparing to hear this week just how bad things have been at Marks & Spencer. The chain is expected to show that underlying clothing sales have gone into reverse.

And all this has occurred even before new tax increases and cuts and freezes to some benefits come in tomorrow, the start of the tax year in the UK. Overall, the changes mean a couple on £45,000 (Dh266,844) with two children and one working parent will be £697 a year worse off. Those on £75,000 will be £452 down.

Those families are possibly the fortunate ones. From the beginning of this month, thousands of public-sector workers are being laid off. The manager of a sandwich shop opposite the Home Office told me last week that at least 1,000 people were expected to go from that busy building.

The job losses would be a double blow to her lunch-time trade. Not only would those who had lost their jobs disappear, but those who remained would be so anxious they would probably turn to Tupperware and cling film, and bring in their sandwiches from home.

She has seen it before. Sales of cling film at Sainsbury's went up 30 per cent in the weeks after the Lehman Brothers collapse.

Howard Archer, an economist who has tracked the UK's progress in and out of recession, says: "Consumers appear to be reining in their spending appreciably as their purchasing power is squeezed by high and rising inflation in tandem with ongoing, muted wage growth overall.

"Concerns about jobs, the economy and fiscal tightening increasingly kicking in are also weighing down consumer confidence and willingness to spend."

Official figures last week also showed that families' disposable incomes fell annually last year for the first time in 30 years.

The squeeze on consumers will put pressure on the Bank of England not to raise interest rates for fear of damaging further an already fragile economy. But with inflation expected to be between 4 and 5 per cent this year, considerably ahead of the bank's target, the City is anticipating that a rate rise next month is on the cards.

Still, for all the moans from retailers, is this "unheard-of territory", to quote the Co-op's chief executive, really such a bad thing?

Much of the consumer boom of the pre-recession years was built on an explosion of relatively cheap credit. But debt is debt, and sooner or later that cheap-transfer rate, or home-remortgage, has to be repaid.

The images of part-built Irish housing estates and families trapped in homes they cannot afford to pay formust have had an impact, so uncomfortably close to home are they.

Britons have become too used to buying a certain lifestyle. We change our home decor not quite as frequently as our socks, but there is a makeover show-inspired mountain of scatter cushions in many homes. A lust for new gadgets has also taken hold, and when a new model comes along, we simply pass the out-of-date but still serviceable old one on to the toddler.

The question is whether we can batten down the hatches, make do and mend, reduce, reuse and recycle without plunging our fragile economy further into the doldrums. I have a hunch that the next few months will be tough, but by September we will be itching to spend our way out of the blues again.

MATCH INFO

Manchester City 4 (Gundogan 8' (P), Bernardo Silva 19', Jesus 72', 75')

Fulham 0

Red cards: Tim Ream (Fulham)

Man of the Match: Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE

Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin

Director: Shawn Levy

Rating: 3/5

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Xpanceo

Started: 2018

Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov

Based: Dubai, UAE

Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality

Funding: $40 million

Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)

HOW TO WATCH

Facebook: TheNationalNews

Twitter: @thenationalnews

Instagram: @thenationalnews.com

TikTok: @thenationalnews  

The biog

From: Upper Egypt

Age: 78

Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila

Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace

Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace

ROUTE TO TITLE

Round 1: Beat Leolia Jeanjean 6-1, 6-2
Round 2: Beat Naomi Osaka 7-6, 1-6, 7-5
Round 3: Beat Marie Bouzkova 6-4, 6-2
Round 4: Beat Anastasia Potapova 6-0, 6-0
Quarter-final: Beat Marketa Vondrousova 6-0, 6-2
Semi-final: Beat Coco Gauff 6-2, 6-4
Final: Beat Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-2

Tomb Raider I–III Remastered

Developer: Aspyr
Publisher: Aspyr
Console: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, PC and Xbox series X/S
Rating: 3/5

Islamic Architecture: A World History

Author: Eric Broug
Publisher: Thames & Hudson
Pages: 336
Available: September

WWE Evolution results
  • Trish Stratus and Lita beat Alicia Fox and Mickie James in a tag match
  • Nia Jax won a battle royal, eliminating Ember Moon last to win
  • Toni Storm beat Io Shirai to win the Mae Young Classic
  • Natalya, Sasha Banks and Bayley beat The Riott Squad in a six-woman tag match​​​​​​​
  • Shayna Baszler won the NXT Women’s title by defeating Kairi Sane
  • Becky Lynch retained the SmackDown Women’s Championship against Charlotte Flair in a Last Woman Standing match
  • Ronda Rousey retained the Raw Women’s title by beating Nikki Bella
The specs

Engine: 6-cylinder, 4.8-litre
Transmission: 5-speed automatic and manual
Power: 280 brake horsepower
Torque: 451Nm
Price: from Dh153,00
On sale: now

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

Fixtures

Opening day Premier League fixtures for August 9-11

August 9

Liverpool v Norwich 11pm

August 10

West Ham v Man City 3.30pm

Bournemouth v Sheffield Utd 6pm

Burnley v Southampton 6pm

C Palace v Everton 6pm

Leicester v Wolves 6pm

Watford v Brighton 6pm

Tottenham v Aston Villa 8.30pm

August 11

Newcastle v Arsenal 5pm

Man United v Chelsea 7.30pm

 

Uefa Nations League: How it works

The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.

The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.

Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.