Unlocking the unprecedented potential of retail's Golden Quarter

Aref Yehia, Head of Business Partnerships for Retail & E-Commerce at TikTok, MENA

With the arrival of the final quarter of the year, retailers worldwide are gearing up for what is undeniably the most critical period in their annual calendar – the fourth quarter, or Q4. The months from October to December are often referred to as the Golden Quarter, and for good reason.

A period when consumers open their wallets wide, not just for necessities but for gifts, celebrations, and indulgences that mark the holiday season, we’ll explore why Q4 is such a pivotal time for retailers and how they can navigate the evolving landscape to make the most of this unprecedented opportunity.

Beyond Black Friday and festive season

For a long time, when we talked about Q4 shopping highlights, key events such as Black Friday and the annual festive season were the ones that took precedence, when shoppers would flood stores, retail websites and digital platforms in search of deals. However, the modern shopper’s mindset now extends well beyond single-day discounts. Today, the shopping season is a series of events that stretch from October to January, creating an extended period of consumer enthusiasm and spending.

Digital shopping has played a significant role in this evolution. The convenience of online shopping, teamed with the thrill of finding great deals, has extended the shopping season beyond the norm. People are now adding items to their baskets as early as October, building wishlists throughout the final quarter, and shopping across a multitude of events.

From Black Friday to autumn/winter sales, the year-end festive season, New Year's, and lately, even resolution-related events and other seasonal promotions, the fourth business quarter is a comprehensive season filled with shopping moments and diverse spending motivators.

A retailer’s goldmine

The significance of Q4 to retailers cannot be overstated. This is the time when consumer spending reaches its zenith, outstripping all other quarters. According to data from the Mena region gathered by Redseer for its 2022 Digital Media Analysis, the e-retail Monthly Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) for Q4 in 2022 was $11.5 billion, a 10 per cent increase from the month of September. This underscores the fact that Q4 is not only the most exciting time of the year for shoppers but also the most rewarding for brands.

But how does this translate into actionable insights for retailers? Digital platforms can play a big role as enablers of shopping. With people increasingly spending time on their smartphones year-on-year and using it as the hub for everything from work functions to daily planning and of course, online purchases, apps are not only a source of entertainment but of shopping inspiration and discovery.

Platforms such as TikTok have emerged as the place where shopping trends manifest tangibly through user-generated content. Users on TikTok display a tremendous appetite for shopping season content. Consumption of shopping-related content peaks during the last quarter. Through various hashtags like #TikTokMadeMeBuyIt, #WinterPrep, #Unboxing, and #GiftIdeas, users actively engage with shopping-related content, sharing their ideas, reviews, and discounts.

In 2022, brands that embraced digital platforms early and maintained a consistent presence throughout the season witnessed remarkable results in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency. A significant portion of Q4 sales, more than 50 per cent, occurred during October and December, with lower acquisition costs.

For brands, October is also prime time to acquire new users efficiently while staying top of mind for the upcoming holiday shopping season. This early and sustained campaign approach maximises intent, drives awareness and yields impressive results.

Moreover, research demonstrates that consistent and relevant communication over the last quarter drives higher awareness and conversion rates. Brands that were active 30 days prior to a Brand Lift Study, recorded 34 per cent higher ad recall, 65 per cent higher brand awareness, and a 28 per cent higher intent lift compared with inactive ones.

The convergence of digital transformation, shifting consumer behaviors, and the retail calendar have created a perfect storm for success. While platforms like TikTok play a pivotal role in this narrative, the larger picture is one of evolution and adaptation, where entertainment and shopping intersect seamlessly.

Through platforms, a modern culture is being cultivated of shopping readiness, community sharing, and ultimately, sales through innovative solutions.

Seizing the Q4 retail revolution

The last quarter of the year is a season of transformation where traditional norms are redefined, and new trends emerge. Year after year, digital platforms are becoming deeply integrated into this shift, but its significance is just a part of the broader retail evolution.

As retailers gear up for this bustling quarter, they must focus on data, insights, and cross-functional expertise to navigate the shopping season successfully. The time to optimise Q4 strategies is now, whether by differentiating your brand, improving discoverability, capturing new customers or maximising their holiday impact.

As Q4 unfolds, retailers that embrace this transformative moment and create compelling shopping experiences will be the ones that shine during the Golden Quarter.