Britain and eurozone brace for economic hit from cutting off Russia

BP's acceleration towards renewables to take hit from exit from Russian energy producer Rosneft

The BP logo is displayed on a garage in northern London, Britain, 28 February 2022.  Energy company BP is to offload its 19. 75 percent stake in Russian state-owned oil firm Rosneft. EPA

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Britain and the eurozone were braced for economic disruption on Monday after sanctions imposed on Russia by the West threatened to heighten the supply chain crisis and send inflation and energy prices soaring.

Oil prices and safe havens surged in early trading on Monday, while the rouble and European equities sank after world powers imposed more sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, fanning fears about a possible global energy crisis that could stoke inflation.

Kwasi Kwarteng, Britain’s Secretary of State for Business, said on Monday that while the UK was not reliant on Russian gas, it was “vulnerable to high prices set by markets”.

The economic fallout from the war became evident at the weekend after energy company BP exited its share in Rosneft, a state-controlled Russian oil and gas company, in reaction to the invasion.

BP’s shares dropped the most in three months on Monday morning, falling 7.16 per cent at 9.48am London time, after the company’s decision to offload its stake in Rosneft was given little chance of attracting a buyer.

It has held a 19.75 per cent stake, currently valued at $14 billion, in Rosneft since 2013.

BP chief executive Bernard Looney and his predecessor Bob Dudley resigned from Rosneft’s board.

The London-based company has already said it could take a financial hit as high as $25 billion from leaving Russia.

“A write-down of this magnitude is also likely to limit the extent to which BP can continue to accelerate its transition towards renewables,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

The crisis is focusing minds on the need to find alternative sources to reliance on Russian oil, with Mr Kwarteng stating: “Now, more than ever, we must focus on generating cheaper, cleaner power in Britain, for Britain, all while helping our European allies move away from their dependency on Russian oil and gas.”

While the UK obtains only 6 per cent of its crude oil and 5 per cent of its gas from Russia, the EU is more exposed, with almost half of its gas supply coming from the country.

Germany pledged on Sunday to build up renewable energy as fast as possible, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz unveiled plans on Sunday to build his country’s first gas terminals to break German dependence on Russian energy exports.

Two new liquefied natural gas terminals will be built in the states of Schleswig-Holstein, in the north, and lower Saxony, in the north-west. Germany will also build up reserves of coal and gas.

More sanctions were announced at the weekend, including a broader agreement on restricting access to the Swift international payment system for selected Russian banks.

“This would make it more difficult – though not impossible – for these institutions to make cross-border payments,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics.

“The list of institutions affected has yet to be released, but when it is worth watching whether Gazprombank is included, since it handles a large share of Russia’s energy exports this could have implications for energy flows,” Mr Shearing said.