DUBLIN // In a shock result reminiscent of the Brexit referendum in June, Europe awoke on Wednesday morning to find Donald Trump within striking distance of victory in the US presidential election.
Opinion polls leading up to the election had been assured of a win for the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton. If anything, the widespread confidence that she would triumph was even greater than the misplaced certainty that the United Kingdom would never leave the European Union.
Stock markets bolted downwards on Wednesday as a Trump victory looked increasingly likely. As trading began in Italy, Spain and Germany, key indices in these countries fell between 2 and 3 per cent. In London, the FTSE fell 2 per cent when it opened, before steadying soon after Mr Trump delivered his mellow, uncontroversial victory speech.
Within hours of the speech, Donald Tusk, the chief of the European Council, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission, had invited Mr Trump to visit Europe for a summit “at your earliest convenience”.
“Only by co-operating closely can the EU and the US continue to make a difference when dealing with unprecedented challenges such as Daesh, the threats to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, climate change and migration,” Mr Tusk and Mr Juncker wrote in a letter. “We should spare no effort to ensure that the ties that bind us remain strong and durable.”
Martin Schulz, the head of Europe’s parliament, was more withering, as he evaluated the US election campaign as one “that will not be remembered as America’s finest”.
“Mr Trump has managed to become the standard-bearer of the angst and fears of millions of Americans. Those concerns must now be addressed with credible policies and proposals,” Mr Schulz said.
For Dubliner Aidan Murphy, who was working in London as a bartender this past summer when the Brexit referendum was held, Mr Trump’s election seems like a reprise of a bad dream.
“You think somehow that people will see what you see, and that they will trust the same experts you trust, and then the vote completely stuns you,” said Mr Murphy, who returned to the Republic of Ireland, which is not part of the UK, last month.
“If anything, I thought the choice over Trump was even more obvious,” he said. “He was so transparently a bad candidate. He had no government experience. And it’s difficult to imagine that people looked past his racist and sexist comments, or that they voted for him because his racism and sexism appealed to them.”
Marcel Van Herpen, the director of the Cicero Foundation, a Maastricht-based think tank, called Mr Trump a man of “deep vulgarity”, and expressed concerns for Washington’s relations with Europe during the new president’s tenure.
“Trump considers foreign policy as the result of some kind of business negotiations. It is not,” he said. “Trump is not a man of compromise.”
“A Trump presidency will certainly lead to a tectonic shift in the transatlantic relationship with unpredictable consequences,” he added. “US foreign policy will, therefore, enter uncharted waters under a Trump presidency and destabilise not only the US and Europe, but also America’s allies in Asia.”
Much of the shock over the election result stemmed from the media’s analysis of Mr Trump’s campaign, and their dim assessment of his chances of victory.
As with Brexit, it was likely that experts simply did not understand Mr Trump’s core support base, said Rose Pym, an estate agent in Manchester, a city in the north of England.
Ms Pym voted for the UK to remain in the EU, she said, but she knew people who had voted to leave. “It was like they were not even being heard, and they were frustrated with that,” she said. “They were sick of being portrayed as racists, when what they were really worried about was their jobs and their health services.
“Maybe the same thing happened with Trump and Hillary,” she said. “Maybe, aside from all the racists who wanted him in office, there were also people who thought he would prevent the next presidency from just being business as usual.”
SSubramanian@thenational.ae
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US ELECTION: The National's full coverage
■ Rob Crilly in New York: Donald Trump to be the next president of the United States
■ US election 2016 live: Donald Trump wins
■ Live blog: Business world reaction to Trump victory
■ Opinion: What the first 100 days of Donald Trump will look like
■ In pictures: Election night
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
What is blockchain?
Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.
The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.
Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.
However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.
Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
About Housecall
Date started: July 2020
Founders: Omar and Humaid Alzaabi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech
# of staff: 10
Funding to date: Self-funded
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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