US President Donald Trump leaves the White House for a campaign trip to Minnesota on September 30, 2020. Reuters
US President Donald Trump leaves the White House for a campaign trip to Minnesota on September 30, 2020. Reuters
US President Donald Trump leaves the White House for a campaign trip to Minnesota on September 30, 2020. Reuters
US President Donald Trump leaves the White House for a campaign trip to Minnesota on September 30, 2020. Reuters

Analysis: Trump’s Covid diagnosis throws campaign and his message off balance


Joyce Karam
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Donald Trump's announcement on Friday that he and first lady Melania Trump tested positive for Covid-19 upends his campaign and throws the president's message off-balance just 32 days from the election.

A health catastrophe this close to voting day on November 3 is uncommon in modern US presidential elections. And for Mr Trump, who built his image around strength and downplaying the pandemic, his diagnosis is even more damaging.

On Thursday, just hours before he tested positive, Mr Trump taped a video message promising the end of the pandemic. “I just want to say that the end of the pandemic is in sight and next year will be one of the greatest years in the history of our country,” Mr Trump said in a message to the Alfred Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner.

Throughout the week, Mr Trump was seen mask-less while taking photos with his supporters – at his golf course in New Jersey on Thursday, at a rally in Minnesota on Wednesday, and mocking his opponent Joe Biden for wearing a mask during the first presidential debate on Tuesday. “I don’t wear masks like him … Every time you see him, he’s got a mask. He could be speaking 200 feet away from them and he shows up with the biggest mask I’ve ever seen,” Mr Trump said.

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Trump associates who have had the virus 

  • US President Donald Trump announced on a Twitter post that he and first lady Melania Trump have tested positive of Covid-19. Reuters
    US President Donald Trump announced on a Twitter post that he and first lady Melania Trump have tested positive of Covid-19. Reuters
  • Hope Hicks, an advisor to US President Donald Trump, tested positive for Covid-19 on October 1. Reuters
    Hope Hicks, an advisor to US President Donald Trump, tested positive for Covid-19 on October 1. Reuters
  • Kellyanne Conway, senior adviser to US President Donald Trump, said on October 2 that she has tested positive for Covid-19. Bloomberg
    Kellyanne Conway, senior adviser to US President Donald Trump, said on October 2 that she has tested positive for Covid-19. Bloomberg
  • Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, center, announces he tested positive for Covid-19. "I just received word that I am positive for COVID-19. I want to thank all of my friends and colleagues who have reached out to ask how I was feeling in the last day or two," Christie wrote on a tweet. AFP
    Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, center, announces he tested positive for Covid-19. "I just received word that I am positive for COVID-19. I want to thank all of my friends and colleagues who have reached out to ask how I was feeling in the last day or two," Christie wrote on a tweet. AFP
  • Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says he tested positive for the coronarivus. Johnson’s office announced the diagnosis in a statement on October 3. AP Photo
    Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says he tested positive for the coronarivus. Johnson’s office announced the diagnosis in a statement on October 3. AP Photo
  • Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) says Friday that he had tested positive for the virus. AFP
    Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) says Friday that he had tested positive for the virus. AFP
  • Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel has tested positive for Covid-19 on September 30, and has mild symptoms, citing multiple sources. AFP
    Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel has tested positive for Covid-19 on September 30, and has mild symptoms, citing multiple sources. AFP
  • Campaign manager Bill Stepien has tested positive for the coronavirus. Stepien received a diagnosis on October 2 and is experiencing “mild flu-like symptoms.” AFP
    Campaign manager Bill Stepien has tested positive for the coronavirus. Stepien received a diagnosis on October 2 and is experiencing “mild flu-like symptoms.” AFP
  • Vice President Mike Pence's press secretary Katie Miller, second from left, who is married to Trump’s adviser Stephen Miller, has recovered from Covid-19. AFP
    Vice President Mike Pence's press secretary Katie Miller, second from left, who is married to Trump’s adviser Stephen Miller, has recovered from Covid-19. AFP
  • US President Donald Trump's national security adviser, Robert O'Brien, has also been tested positive for coronavirus in July. AFP
    US President Donald Trump's national security adviser, Robert O'Brien, has also been tested positive for coronavirus in July. AFP
  • Kimberly Guilfoyle, the girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr and a top fundraiser for the Trump campaign, has tested positive for coronavirus in July. AFP
    Kimberly Guilfoyle, the girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr and a top fundraiser for the Trump campaign, has tested positive for coronavirus in July. AFP
  • Herman Cain, centre left, has died from coronavirus in July. AFP
    Herman Cain, centre left, has died from coronavirus in July. AFP

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The White House said the  74-year-old president was exhibiting “mild symptoms” of the virus but was still working. Both Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen tested negative for Covid-19, officials said. Democratic nominee Joe Biden announced that he would get tested on Friday.

News of his infection is bound to exacerbate Mr Trump's campaign troubles. The president admitted privately to author Bob Woodward that he liked to play down the virus, while realising that it was far “more deadly” than the flu. Publicly, he told voters that “like a miracle, it [Covid-19] will disappear”.

The president's Covid-19 diagnosis turns back attention to the pandemic, something that his campaign has tried to avoid and change in the final stretch. In poll after poll, Mr Biden leads by double digits on who voters trust more to deal with the coronavirus, and has been himself more rigorous in following social-distancing guidelines. The shifting of conversation from the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Barrett to Mr Trump’s health crisis and a surge in Covid-19 cases, it helps the Democratic nominee.

In the best-case scenario and if he makes a full recovery, Mr Trump will not be able to hit the campaign trail before mid October, when his quarantine ends. This will shrink his exposure and camera time, something that Mr Trump thrives on. It could also hurt his polling in states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio that Mr Biden is visiting this week.

Mr Trump and Mr Biden are not due to face off in another debate until October 15, but that is also contingent now on the president’s health.

The coronavirus infection could not have come at a worse time for the US president. It puts him at a disadvantage in both messaging and campaigning while adding more turbulence to the White House operations.