Baghdadi’s death offers Trump a short-term boost and cover for Syria exit

Co-ordination and intelligence sharing with Iraq and Russia could continue after US exit

A bearded man with ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi's appearance speaks in this screen grab taken from video released on April 29, 2019. Reuters

Donald Trump makes a statement at the White House on October 27, 2019. Reuters

People look at a destroyed van near the village of Barisha, in Idlib province, Syria, on Sunday, October 27, 2019, after an operation by the US military which targeted Abu Bakr Al Baghdad. AP Photo

US President Donald Trump is joined by Vice President Mike Pence, second from left, National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, left; Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, second from right, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, right in the Situation Room of the White House monitoring developments as US special forces closed in on Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi's compound in Syria. White House via AP

Children sit by their damaged home in the village of Barisha in Idlib province, Syria, on Sunday, October 27, 2019, after an operation by the US military which targeted Abu Bakr Al Baghdad. AP Photo

A woman checks damage to her home in the village of Barisha, in Idlib province, Syria. AP Photo

US senator Lindsey Graham, second from left, listens as President Donald Trump speaks in the Diplomatic Room of the White House in Washington, on Sunday, October 27, 2019. AP Photo

People look at a destroyed houses near the village of Barisha in Idlib province, Syria, on Sunday, October 27, 2019, after an operation by the US military which targeted Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. AP Photo

US President Donald Trump speaks in the Diplomatic Room of the White House. AP Photo

Donald Trump makes a statement at the White House on October 27, 2019. Reuters

Donald Trump makes a statement at the White House on October 27, 2019. Reuters

US President Donald Trump makes a statement at the White House. Reuters

Syrians gather amid the rubble of a building at the site of helicopter gunfire which reportedly killed nine people near the north-western Syrian village of Barisha along the border with Turkey, where "groups linked to ISIS" were present, according to a UK-based war monitor with sources inside Syria. AFP

Syrian children walk past a damaged van at the site of helicopter gunfire which reportedly killed nine people near the north-western Syrian village of Barisha. AFP

Syrian children walk past a damaged van at the site of helicopter gunfire which reportedly killed nine people near the north-western Syrian village of Barisha. AFP

Syrian children walk past a damaged van at the site of helicopter gunfire which reportedly killed nine people near the north-western Syrian village of Barisha. AFP

An aerial view taken on on October 27, 2019 shows the site that was hit by helicopter gunfire which reportedly killed nine people near the north-western Syrian village of Barisha in Idlib province along the border with Turkey, where "groups linked to the Islamic State (IS) group" were present, according to a UK-based war monitor with sources inside Syria. The helicopters targeted a home and a car on the outskirts of Barisha, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, after US media said IS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi was believed to be dead following a US military raid in the same province. Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said the helicopters likely belonged to the US-led military coalition that has been fighting the extremist group in Syria. AFP

An aerial view taken on on October 27, 2019 shows the site that was hit by helicopter gunfire which reportedly killed nine people near the north-western Syrian village of Barisha in Idlib province along the border with Turkey, where "groups linked to the Islamic State (IS) group" were present, according to a UK-based war monitor with sources inside Syria. The helicopters targeted a home and a car on the outskirts of Barisha, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, after US media said IS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi was believed to be dead following a US military raid in the same province. Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said the helicopters likely belonged to the US-led military coalition that has been fighting the extremist group in Syria. AFP

US President Donald Trump took a victory lap on Sunday in announcing the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi in a US raid in northern Syria, an operation the president will use to shore up his counter-terrorism and national security credentials.

Mr Trump’s first teased about the killing in a tweet on Saturday night that said: “Something very big has just happened”. It was posted nine hours before the US military and intelligence confirmed the identity and DNA of Al Baghdadi.

The tweet reflects the president’s eagerness to take full credit for the operation. “He died like a dog, he died like a coward,” Mr Trump announced from the White House.

The operation's timing presents a window of opportunity for Mr Trump to defend his partial pullout from north-east Syria, boosts his credentials in fighting ISIS before the 2020 election gets under way, and lays the grounds for counter-terrorism mechanisms after the US leaves in Syrian territory.

The raid was "a month-long intelligence operation", according to a US official quoted by The Guardian, but its timing appears related to the US withdrawal in Syria. "Senior military officials had decided that, with American forces largely withdrawing from Syria, commandos should take action quickly to try to kill or capture senior terrorists in north-west Syria before the United States lost that ability," the New York Times reported on Sunday.

While Mr Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria this month was criticised by members of Congress from both parties and Democratic presidential rival on the premise that it would help ISIS regroup. The operation provides – at least temporarily – an antithesis to this narrative. In his announcement, the US president said the killing of Al Baghdadi was his biggest national security objective.

The death of the ISIS leader is a positive moment for Mr Trump as he battles an impeachment inquiry by Democrats in the House of Representatives and low approval ratings, averaging 41.6 per cent, according to Real Clear Politics. While Al Baghdadi is not a household name in the US like that of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who was killed by US forces in 2011, he is still a known and vilified figure whose organisation claimed responsibility for attacks in the country and for decapitating Americans in Syria. The State Department offered a $25 million (Dh91.8m) bounty for information leading to him.

The operation also provides clues to US counter-terrorism mechanisms in Syria. Reports that US forces flew from Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan and that Iraqi authorities helped acquire intelligence underscore the importance of the US presence in neighbouring Iraq. Mr Trump thanked the Syrian, Iraqi, Russian, and Turkish governments as well as Kurdish forces for their help with the operation.

The presence of Al Baghdadi in Idlib, which the former US envoy against ISIS, Brett McGurk called “the largest Al Qaeda safe haven since 9/11", could be a prelude to similar operations in the area by US force alone or in co-ordination with Russia, which controls the the airspace over the rebel-held province.

For now, Al Baghdadi’s demise is a short-term boost for Mr Trump’s national security and counter-terrorism agenda that he will likely utilise in seeking re-election next year. It will also shore up support for his partial withdrawal from Syria and for counter-terrorism arrangements and intelligence-sharing with Iraq and Russia.