Lebanon has been anxiously watching the US presidential race after four years of increasingly crushing sanctions against Hezbollah and its allies.
But the effect of Joe Biden's victory on the small Mediterranean country will only be clear once the new president-elect takes a clear stance on Iran, analysts told The National.
“Look at Iran and the rest will follow,” said Joseph Bahout, director of the Issam Fares institute at the American University of Beirut.
The effect of Mr Biden’s presidency on Lebanon will be a “biproduct of what happens between the new administration and Iran", Mr Bahout said.
Mr Biden is widely expected to try to revive the nuclear deal struck between Iran and world powers in 2015, and abandoned three years later by Mr Trump, who imposed crippling sanctions on Tehran.
Reopening talks with Iran would also probably loosen the noose around Iran's main ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah, which the US considers to be a terrorist organisation.
“It’s a trickle-down mechanism. It’s too early to talk about a change in position or posture,” Mr Bahout said.
Mr Trump’s administration also increased sanctions against Hezbollah’s allies in Lebanon, last week hitting the country’s most powerful Christian leader, Gebran Bassil, for corruption.
Mr Bassil reacted with an angry speech on Sunday, denying the charges and arguing that America’s attempts to weaken his political party, the Free Patriotic Movement, will “force [Hezbollah] to defend itself, and it will win.”
He warned of sectarian strife between Sunni and Shiite Muslims and Christians.
Mr Bassil also set out new demands for the Cabinet formation, which will probably slow down attempts by Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri.
Mr Hariri was appointed on October 22 and faces the daunting task of tackling Lebanon’s ever-worsening economic and financial crisis, which has pushed more than half of the country's population into poverty.
It remains unlikely that Mr Biden will withdraw sanctions on Lebanese political figures such as Mr Bassil.
“They are irreversible,” Mr Bahout said. “This is why the Trump administration was in a hurry to take them, because they know it’ll remain after them.”
Mr Biden’s victory was good news for most Lebanese politicians, not just Hezbollah and its allies, said Mohannad Ali, director of communications at Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut.
“I think that it was not just Hezbollah that wanted Biden to win," Mr Hage Ali said.
"The entire Lebanese political class, with a few exceptions, wanted Biden, because Trump’s maximum-pressure campaign wasn’t empowering anybody.
"It was more focused on destroying Hezbollah through collective punishment.
“It was inconsiderate in many ways and focused on an unattainable goal."
In Lebanon, power is shared among the country’s many religious groups.
Most of them are represented in government, pushing them to collaborate despite differences.
Hezbollah has been represented in Parliament since 1992 and in government since 2005.
US sanctions also focused on Lebanese financial institutions, forcing the closure of Jammal Trust Bank in late 2019 over claimed ties with Hezbollah.
“Sanctions became a regular event in which there were a lot of anticipation and worry about their impact,” Mr Hage Ali said.
"The US became a source of unexpected changes."
But Mr Biden, who will take office on January 20, might not have time to rekindle links with Iran before the Iranian presidential elections scheduled for June 2021.
Mr Hage Ali said that if he did not move quickly, it could mean another hardliner like former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad takes over after eights years of the moderate Hassan Rouhani.
"This will affect the region,” he said. “I wouldn’t blame it all on the Biden administration. There was four years of Trump behind that."
Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
Temple numbers
Expected completion: 2022
Height: 24 meters
Ground floor banquet hall: 370 square metres to accommodate about 750 people
Ground floor multipurpose hall: 92 square metres for up to 200 people
First floor main Prayer Hall: 465 square metres to hold 1,500 people at a time
First floor terrace areas: 2,30 square metres
Temple will be spread over 6,900 square metres
Structure includes two basements, ground and first floor
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Results
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Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
