• The registration for expats to leave Oman without paying overstay fine runs from November 15 until December 31, 2020. Reuters
    The registration for expats to leave Oman without paying overstay fine runs from November 15 until December 31, 2020. Reuters
  • More than 7,500 expatriates have registered for a waiver to leave Oman without paying fines. Titus Varughese for The National
    More than 7,500 expatriates have registered for a waiver to leave Oman without paying fines. Titus Varughese for The National
  • The Hatta border crossing between the UAE and Oman. Satish Kumar / The National
    The Hatta border crossing between the UAE and Oman. Satish Kumar / The National
  • On Sunday, the Health Ministry announced 721 new Covid-19 cases and 15 deaths. Reuters
    On Sunday, the Health Ministry announced 721 new Covid-19 cases and 15 deaths. Reuters
  • Omani students wait in line to disinfect their hands before class amid the COVID-19 pandemic on November 1. AFP
    Omani students wait in line to disinfect their hands before class amid the COVID-19 pandemic on November 1. AFP
  • Construction workers are the biggest group leaving Oman. AFP
    Construction workers are the biggest group leaving Oman. AFP
  • The Health Ministry said that the number of patients in intensive care has dropped by 33 per cent to just 121 compared with a month ago. AFP
    The Health Ministry said that the number of patients in intensive care has dropped by 33 per cent to just 121 compared with a month ago. AFP
  • Bikers drive down a street in the Omani capital Muscat, on November 14, 2020, as part of the 50th National Day celebrations. / AFP / MOHAMMED MAHJOUB
    Bikers drive down a street in the Omani capital Muscat, on November 14, 2020, as part of the 50th National Day celebrations. / AFP / MOHAMMED MAHJOUB
  • Bikers drive down a street in the Omani capital Muscat, on November 14, 2020, as part of the 50th National Day celebrations. / AFP / MOHAMMED MAHJOUB
    Bikers drive down a street in the Omani capital Muscat, on November 14, 2020, as part of the 50th National Day celebrations. / AFP / MOHAMMED MAHJOUB

Oman loses 17 per cent of expatriates after Covid downturn


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Oman’s slowing economy and the pandemic outbreak led 17 per cent of all expatriates in the country to leave since the start of the year, and analysts expect more to leave by the end of 2020.

According to data from the state-run National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI), 277,728 more people left than during same period last year. Oman now has 1.4 million expatriates compared with 1.7 million at the end of 2019.

The NCSI statistics also showed about 60 per cent of the expatriates who left Oman worked in the construction sector, an area hit hard by the economic slowdown. Most of them are from Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.

Analysts said more expatriates are expected to leave the country by the end of this year, mainly because the government is cutting spending as income from oil and tax has reduced while national spending increased because of Covid-19.

“The pandemic forced the government to freeze the maintenance and construction of infrastructure to save money to pay for the national deficit. By the end of this year, we will also see expatriates from the retail businesses leave as many shops run by them are closed,” said Dr Hamid Al Rawahi, a retired labour ministry adviser.

About 7,500 expatriates have registered for a waiver to leave Oman without paying fines in an amnesty announced by the government that started from November 15 and will run to the end of December.

Oman announced a deficit of 2.8 billion rials ($7bn) for the year and Sultan Haitham has already announced measures to boost the government’s income, including valued added tax, expected to start in the second quarter of 2021.

But the difficulties this year mean many expatriates are living with uncertainties because of the precarious job situation.

“We are gripped with the fear of the unknown because there is no more guarantee to work in Oman any more,” said Ravi Singh, 42, a car mechanic for Muscat Automotive Repairs. “The axe may fall any time. It is a very stressful time for me and my family because we know the end of our working life here is near.”

Expatriates who were given one month's notice face a financial dilemma before leaving the country.

“My work remuneration is not enough to pay off my bank loan. I also have to pay school fees for my two children. Where will I get the money to do that? I am trying my best to sell off my car and furniture to raise enough money. It is a stressful time for me,” said Joshi Rakesh, a computer network engineer.

Oman announced a four-day public holiday from Wednesday to mark the 50th National Day and the Health Ministry has not announced new cases of Covid-19 over the break.

Coronavirus has killed 1,342 people and infected at least 122,854 in the sultanate.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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