Members of Germany’s ruling Christian Democrats will begin choosing a likely successor to Chancellor Angela Merkel on Saturday, after surging coronavirus cases in December forced the vote online.
Electronic balloting will decide which two of the three candidates – Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz and Norbert Rottgen – go through to the second round of the contest and indicate who might emerge as the leader of Germany’s largest party and take pole position to become its next chancellor.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has been without a leader since February when Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Ms Merkel's protegee, resigned after the party's worst election performance in Hamburg.
During a leadership campaign muted by pandemic restrictions, the candidates have not risked putting their heads above the parapet on key issues and have done little to create excitement or build confidence among party voters.
With the departure of Ms Merkel after 15 years as chancellor looming, Germany's next leader will have to contend with an ascendant far-right AfD party, and tackle major foreign policy challenges, such as keeping the nuclear deal with Iran alive – especially after it confirmed earlier in January an accelerated programme towards weapons-grade uranium.
Armin Laschet – coal-backing favourite divides opinion
Only one of the candidates, Mr Laschet, has won an election for state or national office before.
Although he is considered by many to be the favourite, one analyst suggested that his position as chief minister of North Rhine-Westphalia might be damaging his campaign.
[Mr Laschet] doesn't discuss climate change...foreign policy...modernising the CDU...opportunities for women
Dr Kamil Marcinkiewicz, a political scientist at the University of Hamburg, told The National that Mr Laschet is "held accountable for the decisions made by his government, so it's more difficult for him to promise a new start".
Support for Germany’s coal industry sets Mr Laschet at odds with the country’s Green party, currently second in the polls, which he may need as a coalition partner.
Judy Dempsey, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, said Mr Laschet, 59, lacked progressive credentials: “He doesn’t discuss climate change, he doesn’t discuss foreign policy, he doesn’t discuss modernising the CDU, he doesn’t discuss opportunities for women.”
Despite this, she told The National, Mr Laschet has Ms Merkel's backing "for the moment" and enjoys the support of many others in the CDU leadership.
Friedrich Merz – Merkel's 'arch-enemy' yet to define policy position
In contrast, Mr Merz, 65, a millionaire corporate lawyer, has been an opponent of the chancellor since stepping down as opposition leader in 2002 in her favour.
Ms Merkel’s “arch enemy” had tried to soften his image during the campaign, Ms Dempsey said, but a recent boast that he had the support of women led to retaliation on social media. He is unlikely to find support among female CDU members, she said.
It's very hard to know what [Mr Merz] stands for
A qualified pilot, analysts say Mr Merz is yet to set out a clear course for Germany as a candidate.
“It’s very hard to know what he stands for,” Ms Dempsey said. “He wants tax reform but he doesn’t spell out which direction Germany must go in terms of digitisation, artificial intelligence or shaking up the bureaucracy.”
As the most conservative candidate, Mr Merz could, however, be better able to check the far-right, Dr Marcinkiewicz said.
Mr Merz, he said, “stands for the old-style conservative CDU from the pre-Merkel era and some expect this may attract some voters who left for the AfD".
”This strategy worked in Austria, where the more nationalistic rhetoric of Sebastian Kurz reinvigorated the People’s Party.”
But such a strategy would be risky because it may alienate moderate voters won by Ms Merkel, he said.
Norbert Rottgen – the environmentalist and 'unknown quantity'
For Dr Marcinkiewicz, Mr Rottgen, 55, is the opposite to Mr Merz.
A centrist and something of an unknown quantity, Mr Rottgen has been the chairman of the Bundestag’s influential Committee on Foreign Affairs since 2014.
His interest in environmental issues makes him well suited to leading a coalition with the Greens and reflects the preferences of German voters, Dr Marcinkiewicz said, and that “his demeanour most resembles the calm, unifying image of Angela Merkel”.
Ms Dempsey said Mr Rottgen lacked the strong party support enjoyed by Mr Laschet.
The soaring popularity of Markus Soder, leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, could threaten each of the three candidates if he decides to run to succeed Ms Merkel as the parties’ joint candidate, she said.
“It’s unusual for the CSU to do this and every time they’ve done it they’ve failed. But at the moment he’s incredibly popular and he’s young. Soder may make the calculation that he can throw his hat in the ring.”
Ms Merkel’s planned resignation means there will be no incumbent chancellor seeking re-election for the first time since post-war West Germany’s inaugural vote in 1949.
Germany is approaching an unpredictable election while a second wave of coronavirus infections tests Ms Merkel's handling of the pandemic.
Growing concern over a ponderous vaccination programme threatens to erode support for the CDU with six state elections and the federal elections on the horizon.
With the subdued leadership campaign so far failing to generate excitement, the failure to produce a candidate capable of maintaining the CDU’s hold on power could tarnish the legacy of Europe’s longest-serving leader.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
ABU DHABI T10: DAY TWO
Bangla Tigers v Deccan Gladiators (3.30pm)
Delhi Bulls v Karnataka Tuskers (5.45pm)
Northern Warriors v Qalandars (8.00pm)
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The specs: Aston Martin DB11 V8 vs Ferrari GTC4Lusso T
Price, base: Dh840,000; Dh120,000
Engine: 4.0L V8 twin-turbo; 3.9L V8 turbo
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic; seven-speed automatic
Power: 509hp @ 6,000rpm; 601hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 695Nm @ 2,000rpm; 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.9L / 100km; 11.6L / 100km
