The drone killing of the Pakistan Taliban leader who ordered Malala Yousafzai's death is set to plunge the group into a bitter leadership struggle that could prompt defections to ISIS, security experts have said.
The apparent death of Mullah Fazlullah after nearly five years at the head of the militant movement comes as his group has already fractured and taken refuge in Afghanistan from the Pakistan military offensives.
While the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) movement itself has not confirmed the death late last week in an American strike in the remote Afghan province of Kunar, both Kabul and Islamabad have hailed his killing as significant.
A protracted leadership dispute and infighting could now see frustrated militants switch allegiance to the local ISIS franchise, also known as Daesh, analysts said.
“It will be a big blow for the organisation and it will take time to recover,” said Muhammad Amir Rana, director of Pakistan's Institute for Peace Studies think tank.
“The TTP are already divided along tribal lines and this is a major challenge that they faced. It will be frustrating for many. Maybe the benefit will go to Daesh, the frustrated militants could join Daesh.”
ISIS has established a stubborn foothold inside Afghanistan, carrying out a series of suicide attacks that have persisted even as the group's self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria has crumbled.
On Saturday, it underlined its rejection of peace efforts in Afghanistan by car bombing a ceasefire meeting in Nangarhar province. The attack killed at least 26, marring what had been an otherwise historic truce in which Taliban fighters and Afghan police were photographed exchanging hugs and greetings.
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Read more:
Drone death of Pakistan Taliban chief Mullah Fazlullah 'significant'
Afghan president extends ceasefire as Taliban respects truce
Malala Yousafzai returns to her hometown in Pakistan for the first time since assassination attempt
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ISIS has also established a growing reach inside Pakistan by recruiting militants and carrying out attacks against religious minorities, although the authorities deny it has a strong presence in the country.
From the inception of ISIS in the region, members of the TTP have switched allegiance to ISIS’s self-styled caliph, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. Fazlullah's death now risks adding to that.
Imtiaz Gul, head of Islamabad's Centre for Research and Security Studies think tank, said the Pakistan Taliban had already started to fragment and now faced an “intense war of succession”.
The prospect of frustrated fighters drifting to ISIS was “a possibility that is very much there”.
Fazlullah built a following with charismatic radio diatribes against the Pakistan government, polio vaccination programmes and girls' education. He ordered the assassination of schoolgirl Malala in 2012 after she wrote a blog speaking out against the Taliban. She survived the assassination attempt and went on to win the Nobel Peace Prize.
He was always a controversial choice for TTP leader, however. The group's first two emirs were from the Mehsud tribe of South Waziristan, while Fazlullah hailed from the Swat valley. His appointment in November 2013 sparked a split which the group has yet to fully recover from.
“Islamic State has grown by capitalising on disputes among existing militants,” said one western diplomatic source. “When militants fall out with local leaders, or there are schisms, they have sworn allegiance to Baghdadi.”
Fazlullah's apparent death also comes at a time when the TTP has been put on the back foot and forced to take refuge in Afghanistan. A series of offensives by the Pakistan military after the TTP's attack on an army school in Peshawar have pushed the militants over the border into an area already seen as an ISIS stronghold.
The American role in the death of Pakistan's most wanted man also highlights that relations between Islamabad and Washington are not as bad as feared.
The United States put out a US$5 million (Dh18.36m) bounty for information on Fazlullah's head earlier his year – even as Pakistan was fuming that President Donald Trump had accused the country of lies and deceit during his first tweet of 2018.
Mr Trump's Twitter accusation and his subsequent halting of $900 million of security aid caused an outcry in Pakistan.
Fazlullah's killing showed that in the background, close counter-terrorism co-operation had not been affected, analysts said
“This operation underscores the ongoing operational level co-operation between the two sides,” Mr Gul said.
“They appear to be taking care of each other's concerns.”
“Whatever the tone of the relationship between Washington and Islamabad the cooperation between them continues,” Mr Rana said.
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
The biog
Name: Gul Raziq
From: Charsadda, Pakistan
Family: Wife and six children
Favourite holes at Al Ghazal: 15 and 8
Golf Handicap: 6
Childhood sport: cricket
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh135,000
Engine 1.6L turbo
Gearbox Six speed automatic with manual and sports mode
Power 165hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 240Nm @ 1,400rpm 0-100kph: 9.2 seconds
Top speed 420 kph (governed)
Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
SERIES INFO
Afghanistan v Zimbabwe, Abu Dhabi Sunshine Series
All matches at the Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Test series
1st Test: Zimbabwe beat Afghanistan by 10 wickets
2nd Test: Wednesday, 10 March – Sunday, 14 March
Play starts at 9.30am
T20 series
1st T20I: Wednesday, 17 March
2nd T20I: Friday, 19 March
3rd T20I: Saturday, 20 March
TV
Supporters in the UAE can watch the matches on the Rabbithole channel on YouTube
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The bio
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France
Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines
Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.
Favourite Author: My father for sure
Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst
The specs
The specs: 2019 Audi Q8
Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 340hp @ 3,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 2,250rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Race card
1.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
2pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m
2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m
3pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1.950m
3.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m
4pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Innotech Profile
Date started: 2013
Founder/CEO: Othman Al Mandhari
Based: Muscat, Oman
Sector: Additive manufacturing, 3D printing technologies
Size: 15 full-time employees
Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing
Investors: Oman Technology Fund from 2017 to 2019, exited through an agreement with a new investor to secure new funding that it under negotiation right now.