KABUL // A secret Nato report showing the strength of confidence among the Afghan Taliban is raising concerns from Kabul to Washington that the militant group might overrun the country again when foreign combat forces finally leave.
But analysts doubt the militants, who rose from the ashes of Afghanistan's civil war, will be able to again race into the capital in pickup lorries, hang their opponents in public and once more impose their austere brand of Islam on the country.
Although still much feared, experts say they do not have the military capability to seize control of the whole country when Nato combat troops withdraw in 2014.
Despite the bold predictions of Taliban detainees whose opinions formed the basis of the Nato report, which was leaked last week, circumstances have changed substantially. A partial comeback appears to be the best the Taliban can hope for.
"When they ruled before, many people had fled Afghanistan. There was no young generation. Without much fighting, they captured 90 per cent of Afghanistan. But now the situation has completely changed," said Waheed Mujhda, a Kabul-based expert on the Taliban.
"They accept that the time has changed. They accept that it's impossible for one party to capture all Afghanistan and rule all over Afghanistan."
The Taliban, ousted after a US invasion in 2001, was able to sweep to power in 1995 partly because it was able to exploit the chaos gripping Afghanistan in the years following the end of the failed Soviet occupation.
The Afghan army and security forces may still be deeply flawed, but their mere size would make it difficult for the Taliban to simply topple the government when Nato troops go.
With an estimated 25,000 fighters at the most, the Taliban is hugely outnumbered by Nato and Afghan forces.
Its budget too is minuscule, put at just $150 million (Dh551m) a year. By contrast, the United States has spent some $500 billion on its 10-year war there.
"The government is very fragile but we have to keep in mind it is supported by a 250,000 strong security apparatus ... which is also supported by the international community and these two big elements were missing when the Taliban seized the country in the mid-90s," said Pakistani security analyst Imtiaz Gul.
Without tanks and fighter planes, the Taliban could find itself battling government forces - and remaining Western special forces - for years.
And a survey by The Asia Foundation showed that the proportion of respondents who say they had some level of sympathy with the motives of armed opposition groups reached its lowest level last year.
Also standing in the way would be the threat of a renewed civil war from the Taliban's old ethnic foes, a small army of Western advisers likely to remain after 2014, and the opposition of many ordinary Afghans.
A surge in US and Nato troop numbers that began in 2010 has suppressed the Taliban on the open battlefield, forcing the insurgency last year to turn to assassinations and high-profile attacks in Kabul to regain a psychological advantage.
Taliban commanders still speak of waging jihad until Islamic rule is restored. But some militants are starting to long for a peaceful end to Afghanistan's years of conflict.
"There are fighters who had suffered losses, lost their family members in fighting and became homeless who want a peaceful solution to the long war," said a Taliban commander who identified himself by his code name Qari Baryal.
In a surprise announcement last month, the Afghan Taliban announced it would open a political office in Qatar, suggesting the group may be willing to negotiate - for government positions or official control over much of its historical southern heartland.
That also suggests it thinks the odds of a complete takeover are slim and is instead looking for major gains in the political arena.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said it was too soon to say how political manoeuvres towards peace negotiations could unfold, although the Taliban was open to conciliation.
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
THE BIO
Favourite author - Paulo Coelho
Favourite holiday destination - Cuba
New York Times or Jordan Times? NYT is a school and JT was my practice field
Role model - My Grandfather
Dream interviewee - Che Guevara
The specs: 2019 GMC Yukon Denali
Price, base: Dh306,500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 621Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.9L / 100km
Results
2.30pm Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
Winner Lamia, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
3pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m
Winner Jap Al Afreet, Elione Chaves, Irfan Ellahi.
3.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m
Winner MH Tawag, Bernardo Pinheiro, Elise Jeanne.
4pm Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 2,000m
Winner Skygazer, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
4.30pm The Ruler of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh250,000 1,700m
Winner AF Kal Noor, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
5pm Sharjah Marathon (PA) Dh70,000 2,700m
Winner RB Grynade, Bernardo Pinheiro, Eric Lemartinel.
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Teenage%20Mutant%20Ninja%20Turtles%3A%20Shredder's%20Revenge
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETribute%20Games%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dotemu%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: Dh898,000
On sale: now
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%2C%20flat%20six-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eseven-speed%20PDK%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E510hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E470Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh634%2C200%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PROFILE BOX:
Company/date started: 2015
Founder/CEO: Rami Salman, Rishav Jalan, Ayush Chordia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Technology, Sales, Voice, Artificial Intelligence
Size: (employees/revenue) 10/ 100,000 downloads
Stage: 1 ($800,000)
Investors: Eight first-round investors including, Beco Capital, 500 Startups, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Hala Fadel, Odin Financial Services, Dubai Angel Investors, Womena, Arzan VC
Uefa Nations League: How it works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2
(Martial 30', McTominay 90 6')
Manchester City 0
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) | US$95,000 | (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) ) | $175,000) | (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 3 (TB) ) | $300,000) | (T) 2,810m
8.50pm: Curlin Handicap Listed (TB)) | $160,000) | (D) 2,000m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB)) | $175,000) | (T) 1,400m
10pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (T) 2,000m
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo
Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua
Based: Dubai, UAE
Number of employees: 28
Sector: Financial services
Investment: $9.5m
Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.