Ugandan peace deal in danger of collapse



NAIROBI // A peace agreement between the Ugandan government and a notorious rebel group is in jeopardy after the rebels' chief negotiator abruptly quit to pursue a career in politics. The breakdown comes as attacks by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) continue in neighbouring countries, though not in Uganda, prompting calls for renewed military intervention. David Matsanga, the LRA's peace negotiator, spent most of the past three years hammering out a deal to end Uganda's two-decade civil war. A final peace agreement was reached in late 2008, but Joseph Kony, the rebel leader wanted by the International Criminal Court, has refused to sign the deal unless the ICC drops its indictments.

Mr Matsanga resigned on Friday telling reporters in Nairobi that his job is finished, and that LRA operations outside of Uganda are out of his control. "As LRA peace negotiators, we have achieved our goals," he said. "Peace has returned to northern Uganda. The LRA fighters are now beyond our capacity and as such, we cannot chase General Kony for the signature. The signature has become moribund." Kony, a self-styled mystic, started the LRA in 1987 as a Christian militia fighting for the rights of the Acholi people of northern Uganda. He also wanted to overthrow the government and replace it with one based on the Ten Commandments.

In 2002, the Ugandan army drove the rebels into southern Sudan, and northern Uganda has been peaceful since about late 2004. However, two million people were displaced during the war and many still live in squalid, tightly packed camps. The LRA is notorious for cutting off limbs, lips and ears of victims. They are also known for recruiting young boys as fighters and girls as sex slaves. Since being driven from Uganda, the rebels have continued to prey on villagers in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and, more recently, the Central African Republic (CAR).

In stepping down, Mr Matsanga, who has lived in exile in the United Kingdom for the past 23 years, said he wanted to challenge Yoweri Museveni, Uganda's president, in the 2011 presidential elections. "I have an ambition to vie for the presidency," said Mr Matsanga, who claims to hold a doctorate in political science. Analysts said that the resignation was a sign that the current peace process had collapsed. After Kony failed to sign the final peace deal, the Ugandan army launched an offensive across the border in DR Congo in December to root out the LRA. The attack failed to kill Kony or any top LRA leadership and only pushed the rebel group farther north-west into CAR.

"The war is on," said Louise Khabure, a Uganda analyst with the International Crisis Group, a conflict-resolution think tank based in Brussels. "In terms of negotiations, there is no clear way forward." The current size of the LRA is unclear, but experts say it is between 500 and 3,000 fighters, with many believed to be women and children forced to work for the rebels. Mr Matsanga said he did not know the army's size, but confirmed that Kony was in CAR.

"Kony is not [Uganda's] problem," he said. "Kony is now an international problem. It is up to the international community to get Kony back to the negotiating table." In CAR, the second poorest nation in the world, LRA attacks have aggravated the dire humanitarian situation. At least 2,000 people have been displaced by recent LRA raids on villages in the dense rainforest, according to the United Nations.

"LRA attacks are ongoing, and every week there are reports of new incidents," said Nick Imboden, a spokesman for the UN humanitarian affairs office in CAR. "These are not major but are frequent." The LRA spill-over and a separate conflict in north-east CAR has created massive malnutrition, especially among children, the UN children's agency, Unicef, said. "In both the conflict-affected north and the more stable south, almost 700,000 children under five are living below acceptable standards, and now many are moving toward the outer edge of survival," said Jeremy Hopkins, Unicef's representative in CAR.

The LRA is also still operating in war-torn DR Congo, according to the UN. Last month, the rebel group launched 55 attacks on villages forcing 12,000 people to flee their homes, the UN said last week. The attacks on villages are mostly to resupply and to forcibly recruit men, women and children into their ranks. Analysts and politicians have called for a renewed offensive to wipe out the LRA once and for all. A bill is currently working its way through the United States Congress that would pledge US support to a Ugandan-led military campaign against the LRA.

The Enough Project, an organisation that campaigns against genocide, said in a report that "a revitalised and revamped military operation focused on apprehending the senior LRA leadership while simultaneously protecting civilians is the best way to defeat the insurgency and allow displaced civilians to return to their homes". mbrown@thenational.ae

MATCH INFO

 

Maratha Arabians 107-8 (10 ovs)

Lyth 21, Lynn 20, McClenaghan 20 no

Qalandars 60-4 (10 ovs)

Malan 32 no, McClenaghan 2-9

Maratha Arabians win by 47 runs

Game Changer

Director: Shankar 

Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram

Rating: 2/5

The specs: 2018 GMC Terrain

Price, base / as tested: Dh94,600 / Dh159,700

Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder

Power: 252hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque: 353Nm @ 2,500rpm

Transmission: Nine-speed automatic

Fuel consumption, combined: 7.4L  / 100km

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5