This week is the 68th anniversary of the US and British firebombing of the German city of Dresden, in the closing months of the Second World War. In a series of raids over three days, high explosive and incendiary bombs were dropped on the city to create a firestorm of such ferocity that it melted human bodies. Up to 25,000 people died in the attack, which left the city centre in ruins.
To this day, the bombing of Dresden - defended at the time as an assault on German communications and factories - is widely considered an act of terror against civilians and refugees huddled in the city. This is not the place to discuss the morality of the action, but it serves as a marker to judge how far we have moved since the 1940s in resolving international disputes.
Over the past few days, Washington and its allies have been promising "significant action" against North Korea for its third nuclear test. Pyongyang did this in defiance of warnings of dire consequences from the international community, including its ally and supporter, China. Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the United Nations, says the organisation will make a "swift, credible and strong" response.
But what would that response be? Not military action. There will be no bombing of Pyongyang, because Seoul, the South Korean capital, is a mere 50 kilometres from the border and within missile range of the North Korean army. As the US is bound to defend South Korea, any military action revives memories of the Korean War of the 1950s, at a time when the Chinese military is becoming far better equipped.
There is no question that the need to stop North Korea becoming a nuclear power is a priority for the US. The Kim dynasty, represented by the 30-year-old Kim Jong-un, is the most flagrant violator of the already fraying nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which is designed to restrict nuclear weapons to a small group of major powers.
If North Korea creates a viable nuclear weapon, Japan would feel obliged to review its renunciation of the nuclear option, while Iran, already under sanctions for its nuclear programme, would feel emboldened to pursue its mastery of the nuclear cycle in defiance of United Nations sanctions.
But while the dangers are clear, the levers available to use against North Korea are getting weaker. Its technological progress in making a nuclear device is undeniable. As far as can be judged from the limited information available, creating a viable nuclear weapon is now only a question of time.
So what form will the "swift, credible and strong" response that awaits North Korea take? At the moment it can only be sanctions, the weapon of choice for diplomats these days, but one with a poor record of success. In other words, these threats are bluster, and the North Koreans know it.
International sanctions, where the ultimate goal is perceived to be regime change even if that purpose is not explicit, tend to bolster the government in power. A decade of sanctions against Iraq served to reinforce the regime of Saddam Hussein, whose cronies became rich on the back of smuggling and sanctions busting. The effect was to destroy the Iraqi middle class, either by impoverishment or exile, and causing the deaths, over the course of that decade, of many times more people than died in Dresden. The damage done to Iraqi society in those years helped to make post-invasion Iraq all but ungovernable.
The same impoverishment can be seen in Iran, where inflation is raging and the value of the rial is plummeting. But Iran has many years of experience of beating sanctions, and that country will not reach the promised point of "collapse" any time soon, if ever.
The effect has been the opposite: to speed up the enrichment of uranium, while apparently staying inside the threshold that would prompt US-Israeli bombing attacks on its nuclear facilities. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears keen to explore a deal that might be on offer from Washington, but he has been slapped down by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
In Syria, a grab-bag of sanctions, including banning the import of luxury goods favoured by the wife of President Bashar Al Assad, were imposed by the US and the EU in the absence of more forceful action. Almost certainly no one imagined that the regime would still be in place today, almost two years after it began shooting protesters.
The challenge now is to find sanctions that will be smart, avoiding the national impoverishment of previous attempts. It is clear to all that, in a dictatorship such as North Korea, beggaring the people exerts no pressure on the regime, which will happily make the populace eat grass to meet its nuclear dreams.
On this page yesterday Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, argued that targeting North Korea's international financial connections would make the regime pay attention. In 2005, the US treasury ordered a freeze on the regime's accounts in a Macau bank, Banco Delta Asia. A similar action could unsettle the rule of the Kims.
Others have suggested a type of blockade, where foreign navies would have the right to inspect cargo ships heading for North Korea, though this would be meaningless without full Chinese support.
China holds the key to the North Korean conundrum. It does not want its ally to collapse and fall into the hands of US-allied South Korea. To that end, China supplies fuel, and allows North Korean workers to send home much-needed remittances. But it is showing impatience with the dynasty's refusal to stop nuclear tests.
For all the brave talk of "significant action", the levers remain the same: US-led financial sanctions and patient diplomacy with the Chinese, who alone have the means to bring the regime to its knees. There is, quite rightly, no Dresden option these days for North Korea. Nor should anyone contemplate an Iraq option. But the conclusion is that diplomats' tough talk has to be treated with deep scepticism.
aphilps@thenational.ae
On Twitter: @aphilps
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Switching%20sides
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group C
Liverpool v Red Star Belgrade
Anfield, Liverpool
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
IPL 2018 FINAL
Sunrisers Hyderabad 178-6 (20 ovs)
Chennai Super Kings 181-2 (18.3 ovs)
Chennai win by eight wickets
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Springtime in a Broken Mirror,
Mario Benedetti, Penguin Modern Classics
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
UAE%20Warriors%2045%20Results
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Match info
Huddersfield Town 0
Chelsea 3
Kante (34'), Jorginho (45' pen), Pedro (80')
Lampedusa: Gateway to Europe
Pietro Bartolo and Lidia Tilotta
Quercus
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
List of alleged parties
- May 15 2020: Boris Johnson is said to have attended a Downing Street pizza party
- 27 Nov 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
- Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson
- Dec 13 2020: Mr Johnson and his then-fiancee Carrie Symonds throw a flat party
- Dec 14 2020: Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative Party headquarters
- Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
- Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The five pillars of Islam