In numbers
- Number of children under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401m in 2100
- Over-80s will rise from 141m in 2017 to 866m in 2100
- Nigeria will become the world’s second most populous country with 791m by 2100, behind India
- China will fall dramatically from a peak of 2.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100
- an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to sustain population growth
The number of children being born worldwide will drop dramatically by the end of this century, a study has predicted.
The global average fertility rate is forecast to fall from 2.4 children per woman in 2017 to 1.7 in 2100.
The prediction has huge implications for societies as the number of people of working age is dwarfed by the elderly population.
When the fertility rate falls lower than 2.1, the size of the population begins to fall. Many wealthier countries already have a figure below 2.1.
Our forecasts for a shrinking global population have positive implications for the environment, climate change, and food production
Writing in The Lancet on Wednesday, academics from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said many countries may be unable to pay for themselves in the short to medium term.
“Because of progress in female educational attainment and access to contraception contributing to declining fertility rates, continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population,” researchers wrote in the study, which was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
“By contrast, world population might peak just after mid-century and substantially decline by 2100.
“Our forecasts for a shrinking global population have positive implications for the environment, climate change, and food production, but possible negative implications for labour forces, economic growth, and social support systems in parts of the world with the greatest fertility declines.”
Countries with already ageing populations and relatively low immigration from foreign workers were forecast to see the most dramatic slumps.
Japan and Italy, the countries with highest ageing populations, would be among those hardest hit.
Japan’s population is projected to fall from 128 million in 2017 to fewer than 53 million by 2100.
Italy would fall from 61 million to 28 million over the same years.
“That’s a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline,” researcher Prof Christopher Murray, one of the report’s authors, told BBC News.
“I think it’s incredibly hard to think this through and recognise how big a thing this is; it’s extraordinary, we'll have to reorganise societies.”
Is it too late to reverse the trend?
The study’s authors noted that several countries have made a significant push to improve fertility, with mixed results.
“Some, such as Sweden, Singapore and Taiwan have tried to create positive environments that facilitate females choosing to have more children,” they wrote.
“These programmes include paid maternity and paternity leave, protection of re-employment rights, child care and financial incentives for more children.”
Sweden’s total fertility rate rose from 1.5 in the late 1990s to 1.9 in 2019, though that was still below the 2.1 growth marker.
“By contrast, positive incentives have had little effect in Singapore and Taiwan, where 2017 TFR levels were 1.26 ... for Singapore and 1.04 for Taiwan.”
Can AI and robots help?
The authors noted that many wealthier societies may ease rules on immigration to bring more workers in, though they said that was not a long-term solution to the low birth rate.
One potential solution could lie in a technology that is only now becoming a reality.
“Developments in robotics and artificial intelligence, which have not been explicitly modelled in the economic forecasts, could substantially change economic growth,” researchers wrote.
“In the future, technological advances might provide a solution to the decline in the workforce.”
Immigration backlash
The Lancet study noted that wealthy countries – in particular Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United States – that had pursued liberal immigration policies for the past 30 years could expect to have "sustained population growth" in the years to come.
But they highlighted the recent political backlash against immigration in the US that “threatens the country’s potential to sustain population and economic growth”.
Other countries that have resisted liberal immigration in recent years could fare the worst, with authors singling out Japan, Hungary, Slovakia and the Baltic states.
“The desire to maintain a linguistic and culturally homogeneous society has outweighed the economic, fiscal, and geopolitical risks of declining populations,” they wrote.
They concluded by saying governments still have time to act and that no country yet has its “demographic future cast in stone”.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SHAITTAN
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.
A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.
Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.
A specific procedure was used, called intracytoplasmic sperm injection where a single sperm cell is inserted into the egg.
On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.
The next day, a pre-implantation genetic report revealed four normal male embryos, three female and seven abnormal samples.
Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.
The woman recorded a positive pregnancy test two weeks later.
The biog
Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
T20 World Cup Qualifier
October 18 – November 2
Opening fixtures
Friday, October 18
ICC Academy: 10am, Scotland v Singapore, 2.10pm, Netherlands v Kenya
Zayed Cricket Stadium: 2.10pm, Hong Kong v Ireland, 7.30pm, Oman v UAE
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Darius D’Silva, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Junaid Siddique, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Waheed Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Zahoor Khan
Players out: Mohammed Naveed, Shaiman Anwar, Qadeer Ahmed
Players in: Junaid Siddique, Darius D’Silva, Waheed Ahmed
Recent winners
2002 Giselle Khoury (Colombia)
2004 Nathalie Nasralla (France)
2005 Catherine Abboud (Oceania)
2007 Grace Bijjani (Mexico)
2008 Carina El-Keddissi (Brazil)
2009 Sara Mansour (Brazil)
2010 Daniella Rahme (Australia)
2011 Maria Farah (Canada)
2012 Cynthia Moukarzel (Kuwait)
2013 Layla Yarak (Australia)
2014 Lia Saad (UAE)
2015 Cynthia Farah (Australia)
2016 Yosmely Massaad (Venezuela)
2017 Dima Safi (Ivory Coast)
2018 Rachel Younan (Australia)
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
SPECS
Mini John Cooper Works Clubman and Mini John Cooper Works Countryman
Engine: two-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 306hp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: JCW Clubman, Dh220,500; JCW Countryman, Dh225,500
The%20Last%20White%20Man
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THE LIGHT
Director: Tom Tykwer
Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl
Power: 153hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: Dh99,000
On sale: now
SPECS
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RoboCop%3A%20Rogue%20City
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LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Levante v Real Mallorca (12am)
Leganes v Barcelona (4pm)
Real Betis v Valencia (7pm)
Granada v Atletico Madrid (9.30pm)
Sunday
Real Madrid v Real Sociedad (12am)
Espanyol v Getafe (3pm)
Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao (5pm)
Eibar v Alaves (7pm)
Villarreal v Celta Vigo (9.30pm)
Monday
Real Valladolid v Sevilla (12am)
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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SPEC%20SHEET
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Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHigh%20fever%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIntense%20pain%20behind%20your%20eyes%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESevere%20headache%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENausea%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EVomiting%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESwollen%20glands%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ERash%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIf%20symptoms%20occur%2C%20they%20usually%20last%20for%20two-seven%20days%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
In numbers
- Number of children under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401m in 2100
- Over-80s will rise from 141m in 2017 to 866m in 2100
- Nigeria will become the world’s second most populous country with 791m by 2100, behind India
- China will fall dramatically from a peak of 2.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100
- an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to sustain population growth