Little studied but with potentially profound effects on the future of the world's climate, clouds are, according to one expert, the "800-pound gorillas" of climate change.
And now a new research centre in Abu Dhabi will help scientists around the world better understand the impacts of climate change.
The Centre for Prototype Climate Modelling, at New York University Abu Dhabi (NYUAD), will study clouds that form over the tropics.
That study, according to Prof Andrew Majda, the new centre's principal investigator, is badly needed.
Efforts to predict climate change largely revolve around ever more sophisticated computer models that trying to predict the impact of rising levels of atmospheric CO on the factors important for maintaining life - not just temperatures, but sea levels, rainfall, and ocean currents.
These models attempt to boil down the relationships between the various components into a series of equations. That way, they simulate how rising CO might affect the climate over the course of decades or even a century.
But the climate is a hugely complex system, and current models still omit many important variables.
One is soot, or black carbon. The result of incomplete combustion of fuel in diesel engines, cooking stoves or even forest fires, black carbon is a major contributor to global warming. But because these discoveries are relatively recent, most climate models have yet to take its warming effects into account.
Even the effect of something as apparently straightforward as clouds is poorly modelled.
"All computer models get [the effect of clouds] very badly [wrong]," said Prof Majda, who is also a professor at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences at the university's main branch in the US.
"Our centre has the opportunity to make a huge change in the way people do operational modelling. If this succeeds, it will be a very high-profile centre in understanding extreme weather and short-term climate change."
Clouds are difficult to factor into a climate model, explains Olivier Pauluis, associate professor of maths at the Centre for Atmosphere Ocean Science at New York University, because they are small - from a few hundred metres to 10 kilometres.
That kind of fine detail is largely ignored by current models, which tend consider only atmospheric motions of the order of hundreds of kilometres.
"This means climate models must use physical parameterisation, a set of simplified mathematical equations, to account for the combined effects of clouds on various weather systems," says Prof Paulius.
"To make things more difficult, clouds have important effects on the amount of energy received and emitted by the Earth.
"They reflect light and infrared radiation, which makes them particularly important for predicting future climate change."
Particularly significant, he believes, may be the clouds that form in the tropics.
The impact of convection in those regions is felt around the globe. It is an important component of a global planetary circulation known as the Hadley cell: air rises near the equator, moves toward the poles at high altitude and descends in the subtropical regions.
This convection has a big impact on the weather not only in the subtropics, but in mid-latitudes, too.
The air that descends is very dry - and that is a large part of the reason why subtropical areas, such as Abu Dhabi, are so arid.
It is also responsible for maintaining the jet stream - the very strong winds about 12km above the earth's surface at latitudes between 30 and 50 degrees that drive the weather systems in those latitudes.
What happens over the tropics also has an impact on the formation of storms in other latitudes.
So a better understanding of tropical clouds can help predict the likelihood of extreme events elsewhere.
For arid Abu Dhabi, the rain storms may not be a serious concern. But the amount of rainfall is.
"For a region like Abu Dhabi and the subtropics, the issue of what is going to happen to water supply with climate change is very important," says Prof Paulius.
Current models suggest areas like Abu Dhabi, and others already suffering water stress, are likely to get dryer still.
The Abu Dhabi centre is due to start work soon. For Prof Majda, it will a chance to test some complex mathematics he has developed to describe tropical clouds. Besides their small size, they have been difficult for computer climate models because of how they behave. There is an aspect of randomness as to how they form, he said, calling them "chaotic turbulent dynamic systems". Yet, Prof Majda has gleaned some regular patterns about them.
"They produce coherent patterns where they change air circulation," he said. "We have the first theories that agree with observations."
He is using partial differential equations - equations with an element of randomness to them - to describe the tropical clouds' behaviour. Similar maths is used to calculate risk in insurance and finance. Potentially, it could lead to more reliable climate models.
"Our centre has the opportunity to make a huge change in the way people do operational modelling.
"If this succeeds, it will be a very high-profile centre in understanding extreme weather and short-term climate change."
[ vtodorova@thenational.ae ]
Company Profile
Company name: Hoopla
Date started: March 2023
Founder: Jacqueline Perrottet
Based: Dubai
Number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Investment required: $500,000
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 194hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 275Nm from 2,000-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: from Dh155,000
On sale: now
Men from Barca's class of 99
Crystal Palace - Frank de Boer
Everton - Ronald Koeman
Manchester City - Pep Guardiola
Manchester United - Jose Mourinho
Southampton - Mauricio Pellegrino
The specs
Engine: 3.0 twin-turbo inline six-cylinder
Transmission: eight-speed
Power: 503hp
Torque: 600Nm
Price: from Dh400,000 (estimate)
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Thailand v UAE, Tuesday, 4pm (UAE)
TV: Abu Dhabi Sports
What to watch out for:
Algae, waste coffee grounds and orange peels will be used in the pavilion's walls and gangways
The hulls of three ships will be used for the roof
The hulls will painted to make the largest Italian tricolour in the country’s history
Several pillars more than 20 metres high will support the structure
Roughly 15 tonnes of steel will be used
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
Star Wars: Ahsoka
Director: Various
Starring: Rosario Dawson, Natasha Liu Bordizzo, Lars Mikkelsen
Rating: 4/5
Sweet Tooth
Creator: Jim Mickle
Starring: Christian Convery, Nonso Anozie, Adeel Akhtar, Stefania LaVie Owen
Rating: 2.5/5
Match info
Liverpool 4
Salah (19'), Mane (45+2', 53'), Sturridge (87')
West Ham United 0
If you go...
Etihad flies daily from Abu Dhabi to Zurich, with fares starting from Dh2,807 return. Frequent high speed trains between Zurich and Vienna make stops at St. Anton.
Super Saturday race card
4pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 | US$350,000 | (Dirt) | 1,200m
4.35pm: Al Bastakiya Listed | $300,000 | (D) | 1,900m
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 | $350,000 | (Turf) | 1,200m
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 | $350,000 | (D) | 1,600m
6.20pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 | $300,000 | (T) | 2,410m
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 Group 1 | $600,000 | (D) | 2,000m
7.30pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 | $400,000 | (T) | 1,800m
Multitasking pays off for money goals
Tackling money goals one at a time cost financial literacy expert Barbara O'Neill at least $1 million.
That's how much Ms O'Neill, a distinguished professor at Rutgers University in the US, figures she lost by starting saving for retirement only after she had created an emergency fund, bought a car with cash and purchased a home.
"I tell students that eventually, 30 years later, I hit the million-dollar mark, but I could've had $2 million," Ms O'Neill says.
Too often, financial experts say, people want to attack their money goals one at a time: "As soon as I pay off my credit card debt, then I'll start saving for a home," or, "As soon as I pay off my student loan debt, then I'll start saving for retirement"."
People do not realise how costly the words "as soon as" can be. Paying off debt is a worthy goal, but it should not come at the expense of other goals, particularly saving for retirement. The sooner money is contributed, the longer it can benefit from compounded returns. Compounded returns are when your investment gains earn their own gains, which can dramatically increase your balances over time.
"By putting off saving for the future, you are really inhibiting yourself from benefiting from that wonderful magic," says Kimberly Zimmerman Rand , an accredited financial counsellor and principal at Dragonfly Financial Solutions in Boston. "If you can start saving today ... you are going to have a lot more five years from now than if you decide to pay off debt for three years and start saving in year four."
RESULT
Uruguay 3 Russia 0
Uruguay: Suárez (10'), Cheryshev (23' og), Cavani (90')
Russia: Smolnikov (Red card: 36')
Man of the match: Diego Godin (Uruguay)
UAE and Russia in numbers
UAE-Russia ties stretch back 48 years
Trade between the UAE and Russia reached Dh12.5 bn in 2018
More than 3,000 Russian companies are registered in the UAE
Around 40,000 Russians live in the UAE
The number of Russian tourists travelling to the UAE will increase to 12 percent to reach 1.6 million in 2023
The Specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 118hp
Torque: 149Nm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Price: From Dh61,500
On sale: Now
Netherlands v UAE, Twenty20 International series
Saturday, August 3 - First T20i, Amstelveen
Monday, August 5 – Second T20i, Amstelveen
Tuesday, August 6 – Third T20i, Voorburg
Thursday, August 8 – Fourth T20i, Vooryburg
Ten10 Cricket League
Venue and schedule Sharjah Cricket Stadium, December 14 to 17
Teams
Maratha Arabians Leading player: Virender Sehwag; Top picks: Mohammed Amir, Imad Wasim; UAE players: Shaiman Anwar, Zahoor Khan
Bengal Lions Leading player: Sarfraz Ahmed; Top picks: Sunil Narine, Mustafizur Rahman; UAE players: Mohammed Naveed, Rameez Shahzad
Kerala Kings Leading player: Eoin Morgan; Top picks: Kieron Pollard, Sohail Tanvir; UAE players: Rohan Mustafa, Imran Haider
Pakhtoons Leading player: Shahid Afridi; Top picks: Fakhar Zaman, Tamim Iqbal; UAE players: Amjad Javed, Saqlain Haider
Punjabi Legends Leading player: Shoaib Malik; Top picks: Hasan Ali, Chris Jordan; UAE players: Ghulam Shabber, Shareef Asadullah
Team Sri Lanka Cricket Will be made up of Colombo players who won island’s domestic limited-overs competition