Antonio Conte believes Chelsea need another 21 points. The Italian has done the sums. Reach 90 and it will be mathematically impossible for anyone to catch Chelsea. They would be champions.
The target is a sign of Conte’s demanding nature. Chelsea probably only need another 15 points. A personal view is that 13 will do it and that, Conte being Conte, he will nonetheless push Chelsea on past 90.
The more significant scramble for places comes behind the runaway leaders. Six other sides are separated by nine points, each competing for the final three Uefa Champions League spots.
They range from Tottenham Hotspur, with only two of the top seven left to play and a seven-point cushion on fifth-placed Manchester United, to Everton, the team playing catch-up and who have to do it the hard way.
Their problems mounted when Seamus Coleman was ruled out for the season but Spurs, without the injured Harry Kane, and Liverpool, who have lost Adam Lallana, are also proof that the next two months are a test of resources.
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■ Richard Jolly: Assessing the seven relegation contenders
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United’s will be stretched the most in a season that could extend to 64 games. Jose Mourinho’s team are on the division’s longest unbeaten run, 18 matches without defeat, but would be in the top four already if they could win more games.
Both in terms of workload and opponents, they face the most gruelling run-in, a period where they face five of their six immediate rivals. Their destiny may rest on whether they can convert those draws to wins.
Liverpool have the opposite scenario. After hosting Everton on Saturday, they do not face anyone in the top seven. For most, that would an ideal opportunity to chalk up victories. Yet Liverpool have had a strange season where they have gone undefeated against the best sides and stumbled against the strugglers. Their run-in looks like an obstacle course.
Arsenal’s looks historic: not in the fixture list, but the probable outcome. For the first time in 20 years, they could finish outside the top four. Arsene Wenger has described their plight as “unique”, which is another way of saying they are in a deeper hole than at any previous point in his reign. He somehow contrived to maintain his impeccable record of finishing above Tottenham last season, but the probability he will lose it represents another subplot.
They start this week. Ronald Koeman has identified away games at Liverpool and Manchester United as being crucial. Everton have the joint most points in 2017, but lose both and their chances of Champions League football are all but over.
Manchester City face a similarly awkward few days, trips to Arsenal and Chelsea. Pep Guardiola’s team are well positioned for a top-four finish now, but the danger is that they lose their cushion. If so, April 27’s Manchester derby could become a must-win affair for both sides. Mourinho has admitted that United’s best route to the Champions League could come via the Europa League but, with the final not until May 24, he cannot relax in the Premier League. It means that, like Spain this season, England could have five clubs in the premier continental competition next year.
The fact Mourinho’s attentions have switched is a sign of how hard the battle for the top four has been. Last May, City finished fourth with 66 points. Now that tally may only been good enough for seventh or eighth. It is certainly likely that six clubs will reach 70. And if it is likely that the record tally for fourth — 79 — will not be challenged this year, and if the current top four are likely to retain that status, it might not be without a few alarms.
WHERE WILL THE TOP SEVEN FINISH?
Chelsea
Chelsea manager Antonio Conte. Rebecca Naden / Reuters
Current points: 69
Crystal Palace (h) W
Man City (h) W
Bournemouth (a) W
Man Utd (a) D
Southampton (h) W
Watford (h) W
Everton (a) L
Middlesbrough (h) W
West Brom (a) W
Sunderland (h) W
Total points: 94
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Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham manager Mauricio Pochettino. Eddie Keogh / Reuters
Current points: 59
Burnley (a) D
Swansea (a) W
Watford (h) W
Bournemouth (h) W
Leicester (a) D
Crystal Palace (a) W
Arsenal (h) W
West Ham (a) D
Man Utd (h) D
Hull (a) W
Total Points: 81
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Manchester City
Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola. Paul Ellis / AFP
Current points: 57
Arsenal (a) D
Chelsea (a) L
Hull (h) W
Southampton (a) D
West Brom (h) W
Man Utd (h) D
Middlesbrough (a) W
Crystal Palace (h) W
Leicester (h) W
Watford (a) W
Total Points: 78
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Liverpool
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp. Glyn Kirk / AFP
Current points: 56
Everton (h) W
Bournemouth (h) W
Stoke (a) L
West Brom (a) L
Crystal Palace (h) W
Watford (a) W
Southampton (h) W
West Ham (a) D
Middlesbrough (h) W
Total points: 75
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Manchester United
Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho. Oli Scarff / AFP
Current points: 52
West Brom (h) W
Everton (h) W
Sunderland (a) D
Chelsea (h) D
Burnley (a) D
Man City (a) D
Southampton (a) W
Swansea (h) W
Arsenal (a) L
Tottenham (a) D
Crystal Palace (h) W
Total points: 72
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Arsenal
Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger. Ikimages / AFP
Current points: 50
Man City (h) D
West Ham (h) W
Crystal Palace (a) D
Middlesbrough (a) W
Sunderland (h) W
Leicester (h) W
Tottenham (a) L
Man Utd (h) W
Stoke (a) L
Everton (h) W
Southampton (a) D
Total points: 71
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Everton
Everton manager Ronald Koeman. Ed Sykes / Reuters
Current points: 50
Liverpool (a) L
Man Utd (a) L
Leicester (h) W
Burnley (h) W
West Ham (a) L
Chelsea (h) W
Swansea (a) D
Watford (h) W
Arsenal (a) L
Total points: 63
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