The bizarre arrest of a US diplomat in Moscow allegedly caught red-handed while trying to recruit a Russian intelligence officer raises more questions than answers. Why was the young CIA agent, Ryan Fogle, taking such a risk under the noses of perhaps the most assiduous counter-espionage service in the world? And why did Mr Fogle's "special technical equipment", gloatingly displayed on Russian television, look like schoolboy hiking gear, a couple of wigs and two pairs of glasses for disguise?
And why did the Russians announce this case immediately, as if it was designed to torpedo a diplomatic rapprochement under which Russia and the US would convene an urgent Syrian peace conference?
If we assume that Mr Fogle was indeed trying, as the Russians say, to approach an officer working on counter-terrorism in Chechnya and the North Caucasus region, something makes sense.
The CIA is under pressure to clarify the background of the Boston Marathon bombing carried out by two ethnic Chechens. The Russian security service, the FSB, has promised to help the Americans, but the CIA would certainly want to know what the Russians might be holding back and if, for example, there was a funding network in North America.
Still, this is an extraordinary risk. Such is the level of surveillance of the American embassy that recruiting a Russian spy in Moscow is seen as impossibly risky, according to the former CIA case officer Robert Baer. The presumption must be that any Russian officer who shows interest in being recruited is a "dangle" put up by the FSB as bait. The only plausible explanation is that someone thought the blond-wigged Mr Fogle, who was probably coming to the end of his tour in Moscow, was expendable if it all went wrong.
As for the boy scout spying kit, this looks like it was part of an FSB set-up to impress a domestic audience. President Vladimir Putin finds it useful to have the Americans as an enemy. Even more so when they come to Moscow asking for help with domestic terrorism and, it appears, cannot resist playing the old Cold War games.
Everyone knows that treachery pays, but the sign-on terms, set out in a letter written in the disarming style of a Nigerian email scam and offering a million dollars a year plus bonus for "helpful information", are way over the top. According to Kommersant newspaper, the CIA's most successful recent recruit, an FSB colonel who provided a stream of top-level documents and is now serving an 18-year jail sentence, received $2 million (Dh7.34 million) over six years.
Often the news of such arrests is kept under wraps for weeks or months. In this case it was announced the next day - coincidentally just as the US ambassador, Michael McFaul, was beginning a question-and-answer session on Twitter to reach out to the Russian public. The US government has complained in the past of harassment of Mr McFaul, who came to Moscow as a strong advocate of democratic reform in Russia.
Coming only days after the visit to Moscow by John Kerry, the US secretary of state, it could be argued that the FSB has gone out of its way to torpedo a diplomatic rapprochement. But the evidence suggests the FSB is not alone in wanting to send a harsh message to Washington.
Mr Kerry was kept waiting three hours to see Mr Putin. He surely would have got a more punctual reception as an ordinary senator than as secretary of state. It is reported that Mr Putin seemed bored and played with his pen throughout the meeting. Unless Mr Putin has lost his touch, such behaviour is not accidental. As a former KGB officer, he is trained to charm guests, to "mirror" their actions and make then believe he is their partner. The former president George W Bush fell for this treatment when he declared he had seen inside Mr Putin's soul.
Mr Putin seems to have concluded that the US president, Barack Obama, is weak, and that his secretary of state came as a petitioner asking for help to get his administration out of its Syrian impasse. Moscow believes it has a stronger hand than Mr Obama, and is not afraid to exploit its advantage in defence of its ally in Damascus.
That world view seems to reflect the balance of forces during the meeting on May 7 between Mr Kerry and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, which concluded with an agreement to call a Syrian peace conference.
The Russian position, as far as anyone can tell, is unchanged from the signing of the Geneva peace plan almost a year ago: no transitional government in Syria can be formed without the consent of the current regime. Mr Kerry, while insisting that Syria's president Bashar Al Assad must go, had to admit that under the terms of the Geneva plan, which calls for "mutual consent", the Assad regime will have a veto on the formation of any transitional government. This is an uncomfortable position for an administration that has long given the impression the Assad clan is finished.
A further sign that the Russians are continuing to play hardball came in the form of reports that Russia may be renegotiating its stalled contract to deliver an S-300 air defence system to Syria. Such a system would stop Israel from attacking Syrian targets at will and rule out any western-imposed no-fly zone, which is mooted as a safe haven for a future rebel government.
While it may be unlikely that Mr Putin will go ahead with this, there is a clear threat. If the US decides to arm the Syrian opposition, the Kremlin is not without means to respond.
Washington has to decide which is more important: getting the Russians to help get to the roots of the Boston Marathon bombing? Or to step in militarily in the Syrian civil war? In American domestic political terms, it's an easy choice.
So while the spy versus spy rivalry may sometimes be just a sideshow to the real business of diplomacy, in this case it is sending a clear signal to the Americans: treat us as equals, not as backward children.
aphilps@thenational.ae
On Twitter: @aphilps
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Results
STAGE
1 . Filippo Ganna (Ineos) - 0:13:56
2. Stefan Bissegger (Education-Nippo) - 0:00:14
3. Mikkel Bjerg (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:21
4. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 0:00:24
5. Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) - 0:00:30
GENERAL CLASSIFICATION
1. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) - 4:00:05
2. Joao Almeida (QuickStep) - 0:00:05
3. Mattia Cattaneo (QuickStep) - 0:00:18
4. Chris Harper (Jumbo-Visma) - 0:00:33
5. Adam Yates (Ineos) - 0:00:39
More from UAE Human Development Report:
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
THE LIGHT
Director: Tom Tykwer
Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger
Rating: 3/5
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
The%20specs
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UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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Cricket World Cup League 2 Fixtures
Saturday March 5, UAE v Oman, ICC Academy (all matches start at 9.30am)
Sunday March 6, Oman v Namibia, ICC Academy
Tuesday March 8, UAE v Namibia, ICC Academy
Wednesday March 9, UAE v Oman, ICC Academy
Friday March 11, Oman v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Saturday March 12, UAE v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri, Muhammad Waseem, CP Rizwan, Vriitya Aravind, Asif Khan, Basil Hameed, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Karthik Meiyappan, Akif Raja, Rahul Bhatia